As you know the VIX has been diverging from the S&P 500
lately. You've seen this with the overlay chart and the SPX
vs Inverse VIX charts - see 2nd and 3rd charts
However the first image shows the standard daily VIX, and has
that uncorrelation indicator below - notice how long it's been
staying below the zero level on the correlation indicator. I have
not seen it this extreme before. Normally only stays below zero for
1 or 2 bars
again this isn't a trigger on anything yet but it may be telling
us that something is coming
I think this is also why we are seeing things like VVIX/VIX
ratio below the lower Bollinger Bands for a buy signal - normally
that occurs after a pullback not at all time highs - this is
probably a reflection of the uncorrelation VIX
Posted by timebandit on 3rd of Oct 2025 at 09:13 am
What has gotten my attention about this $VVIX:$VIX ratio is when
you throw a correlation indicator on it, it is now both outside the
lower band AND -0.99 correlated to $SPX. I've been looking back to
see if it has ever happened before and haven't found it. But I
can't dive any deeper into it this morning
This VIX behavior is giving some potential warning sigs
Posted by matt on 2nd of Oct 2025 at 05:57 pm
As you know the VIX has been diverging from the S&P 500 lately. You've seen this with the overlay chart and the SPX vs Inverse VIX charts - see 2nd and 3rd charts
However the first image shows the standard daily VIX, and has that uncorrelation indicator below - notice how long it's been staying below the zero level on the correlation indicator. I have not seen it this extreme before. Normally only stays below zero for 1 or 2 bars
again this isn't a trigger on anything yet but it may be telling us that something is coming
Thx again for the charts
Posted by shellson2 on 2nd of Oct 2025 at 06:41 pm
Thx again for the charts
I think this is also
Posted by matt on 2nd of Oct 2025 at 06:01 pm
I think this is also why we are seeing things like VVIX/VIX ratio below the lower Bollinger Bands for a buy signal - normally that occurs after a pullback not at all time highs - this is probably a reflection of the uncorrelation VIX
What has gotten my attention
Posted by timebandit on 3rd of Oct 2025 at 09:13 am
What has gotten my attention about this $VVIX:$VIX ratio is when you throw a correlation indicator on it, it is now both outside the lower band AND -0.99 correlated to $SPX. I've been looking back to see if it has ever happened before and haven't found it. But I can't dive any deeper into it this morning
Despite VIX uncorrelations capital still
Posted by mitchell on 3rd of Oct 2025 at 09:25 am
Despite VIX uncorrelations capital still flowing into high-yield bonds. Until that changes its petal to metal.
along with the other "warning
Posted by kingpin15 on 2nd of Oct 2025 at 05:59 pm
along with the other "warning shots" (BDC's, financials, KKR/APO/BX, XLV shot up)