notice the cyan dot on the 78 min time frame - the cycle
indicator is trying to label that as a 4th wave with another push
higher for wave 5
it's like you see in the graphic, where when price blows through
a resistance cycle then you get a pullback in price and a buy
cycle, often times that's a 4th wave
well that played out from what I discussed yesterday, I pointed
out the buy cycle on the SPX 78 min, I said that was the cycle
indicator showing that as a 4th wave with a rally to come and it
did.
now it's labeling end of bull cycle, it's the indicators way of
attempting to identify a 5th wave
but regardless, OPEX is tomorrow and next week's reaction will
be telling if the trend finally reverses or just continues marching
on
I've described the end of bull cycle before. All the
indicator is doing is attempting to label some sort of wave 5.
The cycle indicator is kind of an EW type of indicator as it
identifies trending waves when prices break through a resistance
cycle or a support cycle (generally means a wave 3) and when price
ping pongs a lot between support and resistance cycles means you
are in some sort of consolidation pattern abc or abcde etc.
But again it's a price indicator, it's not human or AI,
doesn't mean it's correct all the time. I've seen plenty of end of
bull cycles perfect market tops or end of bear cycles perfectly
market tops and I've seen plenty of times where price blows through
those and you have 2 or 3 end of bull or end of bear cycles before
it's right. Again it's a great tool, I use it for a lot of
things, just like you guys might use MACD and RSI and moving
averages, but it's a tool that's it.
the example I highlighted is when price breaks through a
resistance cycle (a wave 3) then when you get a pullback, as long
as price stays above that resistance cycle, the next buy cycle is
labeled as a wave 4, then the next resistance cycle is labeled as
end of bull cycle, that's what it does.
here's a couple of attached images showing examples of it. First
example shows a broad overview of the cycle indicator
the second image shows this behavior in the QQQ 78 min last year
where you had a cycle breakout, then a pullback to a buy cycle
(wave 4) then the last bounce a resistance cycle end of bull
cycle
the 3rd image shows where the cycle is good at identifying chop
behavior consolidations such as ABC's when price ping pongs between
the cycles - I also find this incredibly useful because I
know once price finally breaks through one of the cycles you enter
a trending wave and I'll jump on board. One could also simply
buy and short the cycles when price is doing this of course
what the cycle indicator does well is identify both trending
market behavior and consolidation market conditions
the cycle indicator is quite unique from the standard indicators
like MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Moving Averages because it doesn't use
anything related to those - all the standard price indicators are
all basically derivatives of one another using MA's in
calculation's etc they are all generally the same thing (it's like
a persona changing clothes, they might look different but they are
still the same person), whereas the cycle indicator is derived in a
completely different way
the algorithm for the cycle indicator was actually derived back
in the early 1970's for use in the audio/sound industry as a way to
analyze signal to noise ratio (digital signal processing)g in
recording studios. So it originally had nothing to do with
technical analysis. This is discussed in the book by Ehlers
'Rocket Science for Traders"
the fact that it measures signal to noise ratio makes sense with
how it seems to identify both trending markets and consolidation
markets well. It takes time to really get how to use it, but once
you do, you find it invaluable, at least I do.
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SPX 78 min observation on cycles indicator
Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2025 at 06:54 pm
notice the cyan dot on the 78 min time frame - the cycle indicator is trying to label that as a 4th wave with another push higher for wave 5
it's like you see in the graphic, where when price blows through a resistance cycle then you get a pullback in price and a buy cycle, often times that's a 4th wave
well that played out from
Posted by matt on 18th of Sep 2025 at 09:28 pm
well that played out from what I discussed yesterday, I pointed out the buy cycle on the SPX 78 min, I said that was the cycle indicator showing that as a 4th wave with a rally to come and it did.
now it's labeling end of bull cycle, it's the indicators way of attempting to identify a 5th wave
but regardless, OPEX is tomorrow and next week's reaction will be telling if the trend finally reverses or just continues marching on
end of bull cycle meaning
Posted by sandiegosam on 19th of Sep 2025 at 08:33 am
end of bull cycle meaning THE TOP and a bear to begin?
I've described the end of
Posted by matt on 19th of Sep 2025 at 09:49 am
I've described the end of bull cycle before. All the indicator is doing is attempting to label some sort of wave 5. The cycle indicator is kind of an EW type of indicator as it identifies trending waves when prices break through a resistance cycle or a support cycle (generally means a wave 3) and when price ping pongs a lot between support and resistance cycles means you are in some sort of consolidation pattern abc or abcde etc. But again it's a price indicator, it's not human or AI, doesn't mean it's correct all the time. I've seen plenty of end of bull cycles perfect market tops or end of bear cycles perfectly market tops and I've seen plenty of times where price blows through those and you have 2 or 3 end of bull or end of bear cycles before it's right. Again it's a great tool, I use it for a lot of things, just like you guys might use MACD and RSI and moving averages, but it's a tool that's it.
the example I highlighted is when price breaks through a resistance cycle (a wave 3) then when you get a pullback, as long as price stays above that resistance cycle, the next buy cycle is labeled as a wave 4, then the next resistance cycle is labeled as end of bull cycle, that's what it does.
here's a couple of attached images showing examples of it. First example shows a broad overview of the cycle indicator
the second image shows this behavior in the QQQ 78 min last year where you had a cycle breakout, then a pullback to a buy cycle (wave 4) then the last bounce a resistance cycle end of bull cycle
the 3rd image shows where the cycle is good at identifying chop behavior consolidations such as ABC's when price ping pongs between the cycles - I also find this incredibly useful because I know once price finally breaks through one of the cycles you enter a trending wave and I'll jump on board. One could also simply buy and short the cycles when price is doing this of course
what the cycle indicator does
Posted by matt on 19th of Sep 2025 at 09:55 am
what the cycle indicator does well is identify both trending market behavior and consolidation market conditions
the cycle indicator is quite unique from the standard indicators like MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Moving Averages because it doesn't use anything related to those - all the standard price indicators are all basically derivatives of one another using MA's in calculation's etc they are all generally the same thing (it's like a persona changing clothes, they might look different but they are still the same person), whereas the cycle indicator is derived in a completely different way
the algorithm for the cycle indicator was actually derived back in the early 1970's for use in the audio/sound industry as a way to analyze signal to noise ratio (digital signal processing)g in recording studios. So it originally had nothing to do with technical analysis. This is discussed in the book by Ehlers 'Rocket Science for Traders"
https://www.amazon.com/Rocket-Science-Traders-Processing-Applications/dp/0471405671
the fact that it measures signal to noise ratio makes sense with how it seems to identify both trending markets and consolidation markets well. It takes time to really get how to use it, but once you do, you find it invaluable, at least I do.