yep, wonder if we'll finally see a dip in the jobs report as
well -
remember non farm Jobs tomorrow instead of the typical
Friday
Love or hate Trump (seems like that's the two options with most
people LOL no in-between), I have to agree with Trump a bit, the
Fed does seem to be a bit biased, they lowered rates last fall for
no real reason I could see except maybe political.
otherwise the Fed is also contradicting themselves. What i mean
by this is, Powell constantly says the Fed is data dependent, data
reactive, they react to the current economic data. Okay that
makes sense. But, Powell has continued to say that they have
been waiting because they are worried that the tariffs may cause
inflation. The key word is 'may'. They are guessing, to
me that's not reacting to data, that's guessing or postulating what
the data may do instead of reacting to the current data
and again don't read into this that I want the Fed to cut rates,
I don't necessarily and I'm not sure it would be a good idea to
lower rates. Higher rates keeps money market rates higher for
older folks like my 87 year old mom who has most of her money in a
money market. I'm simply making an observation - the Fed
isn't reacting to data, they reacting/non-reacting to what they
think could happen instead reacting to the current data
I find it interesting that the Fed is worried about price
inflation from tarrifs. Wouldn't that reduce demand,
resulting in a weaker econcomy? That would make the case to
lower rates IMO. I don't see how higher prices would raise
demand causing prices to rise even further they way they did during
the post-covid free money dump. Ultimately, resolution of the
coil on the TNX weekly chart will likely set the next trend in
rates.
PS, long time member, your work here is wonderful, thank
you!
Posted by kingpin15 on 2nd of Jul 2025 at 09:46 am
Consumer Behavior:If buyers respond to price
increases by cutting back, demand drops. This is common with
price-sensitive goods like electronics or apparel.
but
Broad Impact:If tariffs affect widely used goods
or inputs (like steel or oil), the price hike ripples through the
economy.
Producer Pass-Through:Businesses often pass those
higher costs onto consumers, inflating prices.
Sticky Demand:If demand doesn’t drop
significantly, you may get sustained inflation—especially if wages
rise to keep pace.
You often see
both effects simultaneously:
Prices go up →
Inflation ticks upward
Consumers react →
Demand softens
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US private payrolls unexpectedly decrease
Posted by rbreese on 2nd of Jul 2025 at 08:32 am
US private payrolls unexpectedly decrease in June; layoffs remain low
By Reuters•
yep, wonder if we'll finally
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jul 2025 at 09:03 am
yep, wonder if we'll finally see a dip in the jobs report as well - remember non farm Jobs tomorrow instead of the typical Friday
Love or hate Trump (seems like that's the two options with most people LOL no in-between), I have to agree with Trump a bit, the Fed does seem to be a bit biased, they lowered rates last fall for no real reason I could see except maybe political.
otherwise the Fed is also contradicting themselves. What i mean by this is, Powell constantly says the Fed is data dependent, data reactive, they react to the current economic data. Okay that makes sense. But, Powell has continued to say that they have been waiting because they are worried that the tariffs may cause inflation. The key word is 'may'. They are guessing, to me that's not reacting to data, that's guessing or postulating what the data may do instead of reacting to the current data
and again don't read into this that I want the Fed to cut rates, I don't necessarily and I'm not sure it would be a good idea to lower rates. Higher rates keeps money market rates higher for older folks like my 87 year old mom who has most of her money in a money market. I'm simply making an observation - the Fed isn't reacting to data, they reacting/non-reacting to what they think could happen instead reacting to the current data
I find it interesting that
Posted by jared95 on 2nd of Jul 2025 at 09:21 am
I find it interesting that the Fed is worried about price inflation from tarrifs. Wouldn't that reduce demand, resulting in a weaker econcomy? That would make the case to lower rates IMO. I don't see how higher prices would raise demand causing prices to rise even further they way they did during the post-covid free money dump. Ultimately, resolution of the coil on the TNX weekly chart will likely set the next trend in rates.
PS, long time member, your work here is wonderful, thank you!
thanks a lot jared95!
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jul 2025 at 09:55 am
thanks a lot jared95!
Consumer Behavior:If buyers respond to
Posted by kingpin15 on 2nd of Jul 2025 at 09:46 am
You often see both effects simultaneously: