Educational question for tonight's newsletter... Literally every
decent trader was calling for elliott waves projecting down below
4000 after a 'bear market bounce'/lower high/etc AND now with US10Y
4.50 looking to breakout higher...here we are ready to
challenge ATH by OpEx this Friday. Once again Tom Lee has been
proven correct and in less than 90 days from the bottom. Steve
always preaches following price action and I have - but actually
starting selling into yesterday's and today's squeeze so I'm mostly
happy not sour grapes. My question is EW just sounds so right and
wouldn't have so many followers if it sucked. But these overnight
flips from 'expecting much lower lows' to now 'projecting new ATHs'
with counts to 6400-6800 just seems like bordering on ridiculously
horrible and totally confusing TA. Similar to all the perma bears
who watch a 10,000 rally while calling for a depression all the
way...and then get CNBC face time when market corrects 1,000
points. Finally, I get to my question. IF you had to teach a third
grader (or in my case a demented ole fart) just a tried and true
system - what would you suggest? BPT Paint Dry? 8/13 MAs?
Above/Below the 50? I have deleted every indication off my charts
and quit using 5-10mins and just using the 9/21/50 and a MACD type
ribbon on the daily. Appreciate your wisdom and this site -- and
patience to put up with stupid questions like this. Thanks!
The question you should be asking is "what is a decent trader?"
There are absolutely NO decent traders that give advice. The ones
that do make money, never make themselves public, so you will never
know if they use TA, manage risk well or have some insider
knowledge. I started with EW 25 years ago because it looked
appealing to the eye, and very quickly decided it is fluff. You
need to manage risk primarily. Just my 2 cents. The guys here at
BPT are different as Matt says on his videos "the best TA on the
planet", but managing risk is still numero uno. Thanks BPT
Not every decent trader but just evidently the ones you follow.
I'm not going to waste any time commenting on what others
may have forecast. As I've stated ad naseum, avoid
prognostications and adhere to your plan. Capitulation and
breadth thrust are not to be ignored that's for sure. Just
using the moving averages (reclaims) as a guide would have served
you quite well over the past few weeks. Think of EW as a
mapping tool first and foremost and adjust as the market suggests -
subject to interpretation my friend.
Yes - absolutely! I miss Wall Street Week and Marty Zweig.
Please don't take me wrong - not bitching - just trying to nail
down 'my plan' and tools to use. I don't follow any other website
but was talking about all those on CNBC calling for depression lows
by this summer last week and then today all jolly after Monday's
move now projecting 6400+. Same person....only 5 days apart. Funny
thing he may be right in both directions but his inconsistency
seems to indicate making EW to fit/justify narrative. I tried
several times to learn EW but still don't get it...so I am
here...following you :) Thanks, again! Truly appreciate you both
for all your dedication.
Educational question for tonight's newsletter...
Posted by profmel on 13th of May 2025 at 03:56 pm
Educational question for tonight's newsletter... Literally every decent trader was calling for elliott waves projecting down below 4000 after a 'bear market bounce'/lower high/etc AND now with US10Y 4.50 looking to breakout higher...here we are ready to challenge ATH by OpEx this Friday. Once again Tom Lee has been proven correct and in less than 90 days from the bottom. Steve always preaches following price action and I have - but actually starting selling into yesterday's and today's squeeze so I'm mostly happy not sour grapes. My question is EW just sounds so right and wouldn't have so many followers if it sucked. But these overnight flips from 'expecting much lower lows' to now 'projecting new ATHs' with counts to 6400-6800 just seems like bordering on ridiculously horrible and totally confusing TA. Similar to all the perma bears who watch a 10,000 rally while calling for a depression all the way...and then get CNBC face time when market corrects 1,000 points. Finally, I get to my question. IF you had to teach a third grader (or in my case a demented ole fart) just a tried and true system - what would you suggest? BPT Paint Dry? 8/13 MAs? Above/Below the 50? I have deleted every indication off my charts and quit using 5-10mins and just using the 9/21/50 and a MACD type ribbon on the daily. Appreciate your wisdom and this site -- and patience to put up with stupid questions like this. Thanks!
The question you should be
Posted by vasiboy on 13th of May 2025 at 04:26 pm
The question you should be asking is "what is a decent trader?" There are absolutely NO decent traders that give advice. The ones that do make money, never make themselves public, so you will never know if they use TA, manage risk well or have some insider knowledge. I started with EW 25 years ago because it looked appealing to the eye, and very quickly decided it is fluff. You need to manage risk primarily. Just my 2 cents. The guys here at BPT are different as Matt says on his videos "the best TA on the planet", but managing risk is still numero uno. Thanks BPT
Not every decent trader but
Posted by steve on 13th of May 2025 at 04:13 pm
Not every decent trader but just evidently the ones you follow. I'm not going to waste any time commenting on what others may have forecast. As I've stated ad naseum, avoid prognostications and adhere to your plan. Capitulation and breadth thrust are not to be ignored that's for sure. Just using the moving averages (reclaims) as a guide would have served you quite well over the past few weeks. Think of EW as a mapping tool first and foremost and adjust as the market suggests - subject to interpretation my friend.
Yes - absolutely! I miss
Posted by profmel on 13th of May 2025 at 04:29 pm
Yes - absolutely! I miss Wall Street Week and Marty Zweig. Please don't take me wrong - not bitching - just trying to nail down 'my plan' and tools to use. I don't follow any other website but was talking about all those on CNBC calling for depression lows by this summer last week and then today all jolly after Monday's move now projecting 6400+. Same person....only 5 days apart. Funny thing he may be right in both directions but his inconsistency seems to indicate making EW to fit/justify narrative. I tried several times to learn EW but still don't get it...so I am here...following you :) Thanks, again! Truly appreciate you both for all your dedication.
Well speaking of Marty Zweig
Posted by steve on 13th of May 2025 at 04:36 pm
Well speaking of Marty Zweig - I pointed out the Zweig Thrust several times.