- 9 consec days up - there's been 9 of them over 40 years, if
you closed out short the next day you made money 1/2 the time
- 10 consec days up - there's been 5 of them over 40 years
- 11 consec days up - there's been 3 of them over 40 years
- 12, 13, 14 consec days up there's been 1 of them, why one
each? Because it's part of the same date range where this
progression occurred, you had one instance where you once you had
12 days up it didn't stop at 12, but went to 13 and 14.
Nothing higher than 14 days of course
That's a pretty bold statement
On CNBC last 9 day rally was a set ...
Posted by icecoldjones on 5th of May 2025 at 04:12 pm
That's a pretty bold statement haha! He probably didn't provide any evidence or technicals either.
He did provide info and
Posted by rbreese on 5th of May 2025 at 06:05 pm
He did provide info and is quite a market historian too.
on the # consecutive up
Posted by matt on 5th of May 2025 at 06:41 pm
on the # consecutive up days - always test that stuff yourself vs reading and taking what you see in an article.
I wrote a simple strategy to test # days up, now for exit condition could be anything, I simply used a close below the 5 MA for a mean reversion
over 40 years - there's been 9 instances of 9 consec days up
10 conec days there were 5 instances over 40 years
11 consec days = 3
12 and 13 and 14 = 1 instance - nothing more than 14 which was the max consec days up
LOL I don't understand any
Posted by steveo on 6th of May 2025 at 10:47 am
LOL I don't understand any of the columns except the first.
the columns on the backtest
Posted by matt on 6th of May 2025 at 10:54 am
the columns on the backtest report pretty simple
40 years back on S&P 500 cash
- 9 consec days up - there's been 9 of them over 40 years, if you closed out short the next day you made money 1/2 the time
- 10 consec days up - there's been 5 of them over 40 years
- 11 consec days up - there's been 3 of them over 40 years
- 12, 13, 14 consec days up there's been 1 of them, why one each? Because it's part of the same date range where this progression occurred, you had one instance where you once you had 12 days up it didn't stop at 12, but went to 13 and 14. Nothing higher than 14 days of course
the longest progression occurred in
Posted by matt on 6th of May 2025 at 11:03 am
the longest progression occurred in September 1995, previous to that was June 1987
anyway enough for me discussing that, just posted for informational purposes
I lied last one -
Posted by matt on 6th of May 2025 at 11:10 am
I lied last one - for fun I tested the Dow Jones back 100 years on the max days consec up
For the Dow Jones, you had one instance of 15 days consec up - this occurred in Aug 1927
for 9 consec days up there were 35 of them! So not as rare as you might think, avg one every 3 year's
10 consec up days was 17
11 was 8
12 was 6
13 was 3
14 and 15 were 1 (occurred in Aug 1927)
Matt Thanks for clarifying the
Posted by rbreese on 6th of May 2025 at 06:52 am
Matt Thanks for clarifying the longest times market rallied over the years.