Posted by anjali25 on 10th of Apr 2025 at 04:51 pm
Matt / Steve in todays newsletter - please can you cover the
potential options for wave counts
I also wanted to get your thoughts on this -
It seems that on the 60 min SPX - we had a big move
Wave 1 - 6147 to 5504
Wave 2 - small bounce 5504 to 5785
Wave 3 - big drop - 5785 to 4835
Current bounce
This bounce could be either primary up wave 5 or primary wave 1
down …
so evaluating this recent bounce from 4835 to 5477 for structure
- it seems like this is a 3 wave up not 5 wave as we have a 1-4
overlap with move down today
So that would be a Wave 4 ?
Drop from 5477 - is this a wave 5 playing out with 1-2 completed
and a dump coming tomorrow ?
I am short so I guess I am biased - would love your neutral
thoughts - I work full time so trade on 60 min or higher
chart
Honestly, there are many valid options (including a corrective
wxy down off the highs). I'm not going to get into all such
options as its much more important to focus on levels/zones.
I would not favor this as a traditional W4 bounce as yesterday
retraced too deep (greater than 50% of wave 3) on the bounce
(unless a diagonal forms down). Let me give you some
advice, focus on levels instead counts. Here is a more
important question - what triggers do you employ for your
entries and exits? Where are your stops after entry?
That's much more relevant to effective trading than
mapping.
See all my zones POSTED - they show 4 hour zones down to 30
minute charts. Plenty of meat on those trades as you will
see in Tonight's newsletter. One thing I know, is that
trading a bearish market often leads to major whipsaws (stop outs)
for those partaking. Again, follow your plan and I will point
out market structure.
Posted by bulf6285 on 10th of Apr 2025 at 07:00 pm
Matt & Steve,
Totally understand focusing on levels/entries/exits, etc. for
trading purposes. In the context of bigger picture/401k type
outlook, what are your thoughts on longer term time
frame?
You could follow the paint dry system that Matt has touched on
lately in his newsletters. It's a very slow system but keeps you
out during the bad times. I think he said it would need to close
the month out before it gives an exit if the conditions are still
being met.
Hello bulf = in tonight's newsletter I touch upon valid
support/demand zones on the weekly charts - I would certainly
prefer to see those remain intact. Thus far, as you will see
in the newsletter, they have produced a nice reaction. It's
anyone's guess where things go bigger picture - prognostications
are of little value as they are fraught with errors. The
bullish view is price holds and rallies back up to new highs around
the Sept/October timeframe BUT it's far too early to give it much
credence at this stage. 401ks are best used to buy into valid
weekly/monthly demand zones and then monitor price action and
follow your exit plan. Another option is to scale into
declines at various levels IF you have time on your side (like 10+
years)
Matt / Steve in todays
Posted by anjali25 on 10th of Apr 2025 at 04:51 pm
Matt / Steve in todays newsletter - please can you cover the potential options for wave counts
I also wanted to get your thoughts on this -
It seems that on the 60 min SPX - we had a big move
Wave 1 - 6147 to 5504
Wave 2 - small bounce 5504 to 5785
Wave 3 - big drop - 5785 to 4835
Current bounce
This bounce could be either primary up wave 5 or primary wave 1 down …
so evaluating this recent bounce from 4835 to 5477 for structure - it seems like this is a 3 wave up not 5 wave as we have a 1-4 overlap with move down today
So that would be a Wave 4 ?
Drop from 5477 - is this a wave 5 playing out with 1-2 completed and a dump coming tomorrow ?
I am short so I guess I am biased - would love your neutral thoughts - I work full time so trade on 60 min or higher chart
Honestly, there are many valid
Posted by steve on 10th of Apr 2025 at 05:13 pm
Honestly, there are many valid options (including a corrective wxy down off the highs). I'm not going to get into all such options as its much more important to focus on levels/zones.
I would not favor this as a traditional W4 bounce as yesterday retraced too deep (greater than 50% of wave 3) on the bounce (unless a diagonal forms down). Let me give you some advice, focus on levels instead counts. Here is a more important question - what triggers do you employ for your entries and exits? Where are your stops after entry? That's much more relevant to effective trading than mapping.
So how do we do
Posted by anjali25 on 10th of Apr 2025 at 05:24 pm
So how do we do this with 60 min or 2 hr charts
See all my zones POSTED
Posted by steve on 10th of Apr 2025 at 05:25 pm
See all my zones POSTED - they show 4 hour zones down to 30 minute charts. Plenty of meat on those trades as you will see in Tonight's newsletter. One thing I know, is that trading a bearish market often leads to major whipsaws (stop outs) for those partaking. Again, follow your plan and I will point out market structure.
Matt & Steve, Totally understand focusing
Posted by bulf6285 on 10th of Apr 2025 at 07:00 pm
Matt & Steve,
Totally understand focusing on levels/entries/exits, etc. for trading purposes. In the context of bigger picture/401k type outlook, what are your thoughts on longer term time frame?
You could follow the paint
Posted by oreo on 10th of Apr 2025 at 08:29 pm
You could follow the paint dry system that Matt has touched on lately in his newsletters. It's a very slow system but keeps you out during the bad times. I think he said it would need to close the month out before it gives an exit if the conditions are still being met.
Hello bulf = in tonight's
Posted by steve on 10th of Apr 2025 at 07:06 pm
Hello bulf = in tonight's newsletter I touch upon valid support/demand zones on the weekly charts - I would certainly prefer to see those remain intact. Thus far, as you will see in the newsletter, they have produced a nice reaction. It's anyone's guess where things go bigger picture - prognostications are of little value as they are fraught with errors. The bullish view is price holds and rallies back up to new highs around the Sept/October timeframe BUT it's far too early to give it much credence at this stage. 401ks are best used to buy into valid weekly/monthly demand zones and then monitor price action and follow your exit plan. Another option is to scale into declines at various levels IF you have time on your side (like 10+ years)
Matt / Steve - an
Posted by anjali25 on 10th of Apr 2025 at 04:59 pm
Matt / Steve - an image would probably make things easier ?
Thoughts on this - written as above