This quick whipsaw has happened

    Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 05:45 pm

    This quick whipsaw has happened in almost every position taken on UPRO 78 this year, this volatility is getting ridiculous! 

    yeah, and we haven't seen

    Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 05:50 pm

    yeah, and we haven't seen volatility like this before, yeah in 2008 the market sold off and off, but it was more steady -this volatility with 100 plus point ranges overnight, intra day up down all around is not what the market experienced in the past.  It's not like you can plan for this - stops and things that worked well under a normal market not so much right now

    that said - I did say that I expected this to be a tough year for the markets, talked about this dozens of times late last year and early this year.  I said one should consider focusing also on some commodities and precious metals instead of only market indexes - and all those have done well on KISS systems

    and EFA and EEM - I think those are gonna eventually outperform SPY, which is why I added them - via the EEM/SPY and EFA/SPY ratios

    I have to try something

    Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 07:25 pm

    I have to try something else because if UPRO opens here than I’m already down $100k on the year on high performance systems and I’m near my end. 

    guys - I can't give

    Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 09:07 pm

    guys - I can't give trading advice - but again general consensus was that this was not going to be another big up year, and been calling for a correction in the first quarter. During down years KISS systems might make a tiny bit or they lose some - but they don't knock it out of  the park.  during a bear market year if SPX loses 25%, the KISS system index ETF's might make 4% or lose 7% - they don't make 30% during a down year, they make a little or they lose a little.   

    futures are of the lows for now, ES futures down 169, were down over 200, but a long way to go until morning

    for things like UPRO these 3X ETF's, don't swing for the fences in times like this - I have some UPRO because of the system so I'm taking a hit but I took a reasonable size, and I'm also in the IAU, SLV, UGL, PDBC, ERX, some of these others.  

    anyway it sucks all around but we have to keep these things in mind, we always need to live to trade another day, which is why we can't be crazy aggressive with leveraged instruments. That said, we'll take some lumps and after something like this generally forces us to re-set our game plan and in the future it will be a distant memory. 

    Been ultimately looking for another low in the low 5000 range, was hoping we would have a further move up in that B wave, however the other bearish scenario where we go down to is playing out.  That said, assuming SPX gets down to those lower levels, that will be the place I'll position into again as that will likely be at least an intermediate low for quite a while 

    we'll see how gold does here, the first reaction was down, then way up, then back down, now it's up some

    James is working on those inverse ETF's and maybe can get that out next week.

    I totally agree Matt and

    Posted by icecoldjones on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 12:07 pm

    I totally agree Matt and not throwing shade by any means. I've been skeptical on each entry this year but was still optimistic and took them anyway. I know we're due for a pullback as well, so hopefully when it gets near the bottom (maybe -20% or 30%) then we can all ride UPRO back up to the next all-time high. The pain in between these periods sucks and need to minimize it, that's for sure.

    Too bad you haven’t held

    Posted by mastermind on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 01:30 pm

    Too bad you haven’t held the bearish stance you had most of last year.

    I hate to even post

    Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 06:01 pm

    I hate to even post this because people get annoyed or emotion - but my style is to communicate, but anyway here's an image showing SPXU and SQQQ inverse ETF's I have running on the KISS automation on my side. 

    recently they did very nice trades and today near the close SQQQ went long, which obviously very well after hrs.

    MY GOAL was to have these inverse ETF's up on the KISS systems because I knew a market correction was coming.  However James while he's been working on it, has about 70% completed, it wasn't ready yet.  That said - I think it's gonna be very volatile all year, so while folks were not  able to capture these recent trades - I think these  inverse ETF systems will do very well  the rest of the year, so event though these were not on the website for these last trades, there will be plenty of trades in the future - so there will be plenty of opportunity

    Why the complication here? It's because these inverse ETF KISS systems enter on limit orders,not at the close of the bar - so we have to build into the website to communicate the text messages the emails and the notification for the limit price -something like place a buy limit on SQQQ at 37.4 - this means that sometimes the trades will not trigger if the limit order is not hit, price has to hit the limit price or be above it. This helps avoid some whipsaw trades

    secondly: The inverse ETF KISS systems use profit target instead of STS stops-  they will stop out on STS stops if it's bad trade, but otherwise winning trades get exited on a profit target price.   That profit target has to be added to the text messages, and column needs to be added to the KISS table for the profit target price. 

    again  - the systems work just fine on my computer - all that stuff has to be added to the website tables  and text messages etc - anyway he's working on it, so I'll let you know

    also guys on these inverse

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 09:12 am

    also guys on these inverse ETF's KISS systems, since I can't tell you when James will have it automatically working on the website, until that time I'll make it a point to manually email these out!  Obviously wish I had just done that before, the concern was that I don't always see these triggering in real time and worried that I would miss seeing the trade for a while since I have them automated I don't look at them all the time and I hate sending system signals a while after they have already triggered. That said, I will start manually sending these signals until they are finally automated. Remember these use profit targets and limit orders, so they are a different beast.

    right now have SPXU 30 min, 78 min, and SQQQ 30 min. I'll also make a TZA and maybe a couple others - these only work with profit targets because of the nature of sell offs - tend to be hard and fast - not a slow steady trend like uptrends tend to be where moving a stop up slowly over time works well - for shorts you have to keep them much tigher and take profits. 

    SQQQ 30 min KISS closed

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 09:33 am

    SQQQ 30 min KISS closed out

    The KISS inverse ETF's I

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 11:05 am

    The KISS inverse ETF's I said I would try and communicate these manually as they are not on the website to do that on their own

    SQQQ closed out this morning on a profit target

    one of the SPXU 30 min versions is looking to go long. These do not enter on close - but with buy stops - it has an order in at 28.18 - the way it works, it will either get hit or not, if price never tags that price, it will not enter - you can see the order on the matrix on left

    that said market is quite oversold here already

    the buy stop is still

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 02:05 pm

    the buy stop is still in place on the SPXU 30 min KISS system  at 28.18

    Triggered :)

    Posted by greggone on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:23 pm

    Triggered :)

    as you can see that

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 11:59 am

    as you can see that buy stop never triggered on that SPXU

    What's the percent target? Is

    Posted by pretty p on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 11:08 am

    What's the percent target? Is it 3%?

    it varies:  I have two

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 11:11 am

    it varies:  I have two versions of SPXU 30  min - this one only has a 1% profit target. The other one uses 4.3%, while the SQQQ is 8%.  

    Matt, looks like the SPXU

    Posted by rmoore100 on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:28 pm

    Matt, looks like the SPXU has triggered at $28.18.    Therefore, profit target is only $.28 or 1%.   Is that correct ?    Thanks !!!

    yes it triggered, was trying

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:48 pm

    yes it triggered, was trying to post - target is 28.46

    Btw, what would be the

    Posted by greggone on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:52 pm

    Btw, what would be the stop if it turns the other way?

    looks like stop is 27.52

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:57 pm

    looks like stop is 27.52

    Thanks… Target hit but nice

    Posted by greggone on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 04:01 pm

    Thanks… Target hit but nice to see how this new system works :)

    we'll have a basket of

    Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 04:03 pm

    we'll have a basket of them such as SPXU, SQQQ, TZA, etc.  James and I once we get it on website we'll have to see the alerts on our side to make sure it's working fine, then we'll turn it on.

    again sucks we already had a big move down in the market, and sometime soon could be a few days, we'll get a washout and probably a low for a while. However, I expect a lot of volatility this year, so these inverse KISS systems will have plenty of trade opportunity in the future

    Thanks Matt!

    Posted by greggone on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:50 pm

    Thanks Matt!

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