yeah, and we haven't seen volatility like this before, yeah in
2008 the market sold off and off, but it was more steady -this
volatility with 100 plus point ranges overnight, intra day up down
all around is not what the market experienced in the past.
It's not like you can plan for this - stops and things that
worked well under a normal market not so much right now
that said - I did say that I expected this to be a tough year
for the markets, talked about this dozens of times late last year
and early this year. I said one should consider focusing also
on some commodities and precious metals instead of only market
indexes - and all those have done well on KISS systems
and EFA and EEM - I think those are gonna eventually outperform
SPY, which is why I added them - via the EEM/SPY and EFA/SPY
ratios
guys - I can't give trading advice - but again general consensus
was that this was not going to be another big up year, and been
calling for a correction in the first quarter. During down years
KISS systems might make a tiny bit or they lose some - but they
don't knock it out of the park. during a bear market
year if SPX loses 25%, the KISS system index ETF's might make 4% or
lose 7% - they don't make 30% during a down year, they make a
little or they lose a little.
futures are of the lows for now, ES futures down 169, were down
over 200, but a long way to go until morning
for things like UPRO these 3X ETF's, don't swing for the fences
in times like this - I have some UPRO because of the system so I'm
taking a hit but I took a reasonable size, and I'm also in the IAU,
SLV, UGL, PDBC, ERX, some of these others.
anyway it sucks all around but we have to keep these things in
mind, we always need to live to trade another day, which is why we
can't be crazy aggressive with leveraged instruments. That said,
we'll take some lumps and after something like this generally
forces us to re-set our game plan and in the future it will be a
distant memory.
Been ultimately looking for another low in the low 5000 range,
was hoping we would have a further move up in that B wave, however
the other bearish scenario where we go down to is playing out.
That said, assuming SPX gets down to those lower levels, that
will be the place I'll position into again as that will likely be
at least an intermediate low for quite a while
we'll see how gold does here, the first reaction was down, then
way up, then back down, now it's up some
James is working on those inverse ETF's and maybe can get that
out next week.
Posted by icecoldjones on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 12:07 pm
I totally agree Matt and not throwing shade by any means. I've
been skeptical on each entry this year but was still optimistic and
took them anyway. I know we're due for a pullback as well, so
hopefully when it gets near the bottom (maybe -20% or 30%) then we
can all ride UPRO back up to the next all-time high. The pain in
between these periods sucks and need to minimize it, that's for
sure.
I hate to even post this because people get annoyed or emotion -
but my style is to communicate, but anyway here's an image showing
SPXU and SQQQ inverse ETF's I have running on the KISS automation
on my side.
recently they did very nice trades and today near the close SQQQ
went long, which obviously very well after hrs.
MY GOAL was to have these inverse ETF's up on the KISS systems
because I knew a market correction was coming. However James
while he's been working on it, has about 70% completed, it wasn't
ready yet. That said - I think it's gonna be very volatile
all year, so while folks were not able to capture these
recent trades - I think these inverse ETF systems will do
very well the rest of the year, so event though these were
not on the website for these last trades, there will be plenty of
trades in the future - so there will be plenty of opportunity
Why the complication here? It's because these inverse ETF
KISS systems
enter on limit orders,not at the close of the bar - so we
have to build into the website to communicate the text messages the
emails and the notification for the limit price -something like
place a buy limit on SQQQ at 37.4 - this means that sometimes the
trades will not trigger if the limit order is not hit, price has to
hit the limit price or be above it. This helps avoid some whipsaw
trades
secondly: The inverse ETF KISS systems
use profit target instead of STS stops- they will stop
out on STS stops if it's bad trade, but otherwise winning trades
get exited on a profit target price.
That profit target has to be added to the text messages, and
column needs to be added to the KISS table for the profit target
price.
again - the systems work just fine on my computer - all
that stuff has to be added to the website tables and text
messages etc - anyway he's working on it, so I'll let you know
also guys on these inverse ETF's KISS systems, since I can't
tell you when James will have it automatically working on the
website, until that time I'll make it a point to manually email
these out! Obviously wish I had just done that before, the
concern was that I don't always see these triggering in real time
and worried that I would miss seeing the trade for a while since I
have them automated I don't look at them all the time and I hate
sending system signals a while after they have already triggered.
That said, I will start manually sending these signals until they
are finally automated. Remember these use profit targets and limit
orders, so they are a different beast.
right now have SPXU 30 min, 78 min, and SQQQ 30 min. I'll also
make a TZA and maybe a couple others - these only work with profit
targets because of the nature of sell offs - tend to be hard and
fast - not a slow steady trend like uptrends tend to be where
moving a stop up slowly over time works well - for shorts you have
to keep them much tigher and take profits.
The KISS inverse ETF's I said I would try and communicate these
manually as they are not on the website to do that on their own
SQQQ closed out this morning on a profit target
one of the SPXU 30 min versions is looking to go long. These do
not enter on close - but with buy stops - it has an order in at
28.18 - the way it works, it will either get hit or not, if price
never tags that price, it will not enter - you can see the order on
the matrix on left
we'll have a basket of them such as SPXU, SQQQ, TZA, etc.
James and I once we get it on website we'll have to see the
alerts on our side to make sure it's working fine, then we'll turn
it on.
again sucks we already had a big move down in the market, and
sometime soon could be a few days, we'll get a washout and probably
a low for a while. However, I expect a lot of volatility this year,
so these inverse KISS systems will have plenty of trade opportunity
in the future
This quick whipsaw has happened
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 05:45 pm
This quick whipsaw has happened in almost every position taken on UPRO 78 this year, this volatility is getting ridiculous!
yeah, and we haven't seen
Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 05:50 pm
yeah, and we haven't seen volatility like this before, yeah in 2008 the market sold off and off, but it was more steady -this volatility with 100 plus point ranges overnight, intra day up down all around is not what the market experienced in the past. It's not like you can plan for this - stops and things that worked well under a normal market not so much right now
that said - I did say that I expected this to be a tough year for the markets, talked about this dozens of times late last year and early this year. I said one should consider focusing also on some commodities and precious metals instead of only market indexes - and all those have done well on KISS systems
and EFA and EEM - I think those are gonna eventually outperform SPY, which is why I added them - via the EEM/SPY and EFA/SPY ratios
I have to try something
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 07:25 pm
I have to try something else because if UPRO opens here than I’m already down $100k on the year on high performance systems and I’m near my end.
guys - I can't give
Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 09:07 pm
guys - I can't give trading advice - but again general consensus was that this was not going to be another big up year, and been calling for a correction in the first quarter. During down years KISS systems might make a tiny bit or they lose some - but they don't knock it out of the park. during a bear market year if SPX loses 25%, the KISS system index ETF's might make 4% or lose 7% - they don't make 30% during a down year, they make a little or they lose a little.
futures are of the lows for now, ES futures down 169, were down over 200, but a long way to go until morning
for things like UPRO these 3X ETF's, don't swing for the fences in times like this - I have some UPRO because of the system so I'm taking a hit but I took a reasonable size, and I'm also in the IAU, SLV, UGL, PDBC, ERX, some of these others.
anyway it sucks all around but we have to keep these things in mind, we always need to live to trade another day, which is why we can't be crazy aggressive with leveraged instruments. That said, we'll take some lumps and after something like this generally forces us to re-set our game plan and in the future it will be a distant memory.
Been ultimately looking for another low in the low 5000 range, was hoping we would have a further move up in that B wave, however the other bearish scenario where we go down to is playing out. That said, assuming SPX gets down to those lower levels, that will be the place I'll position into again as that will likely be at least an intermediate low for quite a while
we'll see how gold does here, the first reaction was down, then way up, then back down, now it's up some
James is working on those inverse ETF's and maybe can get that out next week.
I totally agree Matt and
Posted by icecoldjones on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 12:07 pm
I totally agree Matt and not throwing shade by any means. I've been skeptical on each entry this year but was still optimistic and took them anyway. I know we're due for a pullback as well, so hopefully when it gets near the bottom (maybe -20% or 30%) then we can all ride UPRO back up to the next all-time high. The pain in between these periods sucks and need to minimize it, that's for sure.
Too bad you haven’t held
Posted by mastermind on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 01:30 pm
Too bad you haven’t held the bearish stance you had most of last year.
I hate to even post
Posted by matt on 2nd of Apr 2025 at 06:01 pm
I hate to even post this because people get annoyed or emotion - but my style is to communicate, but anyway here's an image showing SPXU and SQQQ inverse ETF's I have running on the KISS automation on my side.
recently they did very nice trades and today near the close SQQQ went long, which obviously very well after hrs.
MY GOAL was to have these inverse ETF's up on the KISS systems because I knew a market correction was coming. However James while he's been working on it, has about 70% completed, it wasn't ready yet. That said - I think it's gonna be very volatile all year, so while folks were not able to capture these recent trades - I think these inverse ETF systems will do very well the rest of the year, so event though these were not on the website for these last trades, there will be plenty of trades in the future - so there will be plenty of opportunity
Why the complication here? It's because these inverse ETF KISS systems enter on limit orders,not at the close of the bar - so we have to build into the website to communicate the text messages the emails and the notification for the limit price -something like place a buy limit on SQQQ at 37.4 - this means that sometimes the trades will not trigger if the limit order is not hit, price has to hit the limit price or be above it. This helps avoid some whipsaw trades
secondly: The inverse ETF KISS systems use profit target instead of STS stops- they will stop out on STS stops if it's bad trade, but otherwise winning trades get exited on a profit target price. That profit target has to be added to the text messages, and column needs to be added to the KISS table for the profit target price.
again - the systems work just fine on my computer - all that stuff has to be added to the website tables and text messages etc - anyway he's working on it, so I'll let you know
also guys on these inverse
Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 09:12 am
also guys on these inverse ETF's KISS systems, since I can't tell you when James will have it automatically working on the website, until that time I'll make it a point to manually email these out! Obviously wish I had just done that before, the concern was that I don't always see these triggering in real time and worried that I would miss seeing the trade for a while since I have them automated I don't look at them all the time and I hate sending system signals a while after they have already triggered. That said, I will start manually sending these signals until they are finally automated. Remember these use profit targets and limit orders, so they are a different beast.
right now have SPXU 30 min, 78 min, and SQQQ 30 min. I'll also make a TZA and maybe a couple others - these only work with profit targets because of the nature of sell offs - tend to be hard and fast - not a slow steady trend like uptrends tend to be where moving a stop up slowly over time works well - for shorts you have to keep them much tigher and take profits.
SQQQ 30 min KISS closed
Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 09:33 am
SQQQ 30 min KISS closed out
The KISS inverse ETF's I
Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 11:05 am
The KISS inverse ETF's I said I would try and communicate these manually as they are not on the website to do that on their own
SQQQ closed out this morning on a profit target
one of the SPXU 30 min versions is looking to go long. These do not enter on close - but with buy stops - it has an order in at 28.18 - the way it works, it will either get hit or not, if price never tags that price, it will not enter - you can see the order on the matrix on left
that said market is quite oversold here already
the buy stop is still
Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 02:05 pm
the buy stop is still in place on the SPXU 30 min KISS system at 28.18
Triggered :)
Posted by greggone on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:23 pm
Triggered :)
as you can see that
Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 11:59 am
as you can see that buy stop never triggered on that SPXU
What's the percent target? Is
Posted by pretty p on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 11:08 am
What's the percent target? Is it 3%?
it varies: I have two
Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 11:11 am
it varies: I have two versions of SPXU 30 min - this one only has a 1% profit target. The other one uses 4.3%, while the SQQQ is 8%.
Matt, looks like the SPXU
Posted by rmoore100 on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:28 pm
Matt, looks like the SPXU has triggered at $28.18. Therefore, profit target is only $.28 or 1%. Is that correct ? Thanks !!!
yes it triggered, was trying
Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:48 pm
yes it triggered, was trying to post - target is 28.46
Btw, what would be the
Posted by greggone on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:52 pm
Btw, what would be the stop if it turns the other way?
looks like stop is 27.52
Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:57 pm
looks like stop is 27.52
Thanks… Target hit but nice
Posted by greggone on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 04:01 pm
Thanks… Target hit but nice to see how this new system works :)
we'll have a basket of
Posted by matt on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 04:03 pm
we'll have a basket of them such as SPXU, SQQQ, TZA, etc. James and I once we get it on website we'll have to see the alerts on our side to make sure it's working fine, then we'll turn it on.
again sucks we already had a big move down in the market, and sometime soon could be a few days, we'll get a washout and probably a low for a while. However, I expect a lot of volatility this year, so these inverse KISS systems will have plenty of trade opportunity in the future
Thanks Matt!
Posted by greggone on 3rd of Apr 2025 at 03:50 pm
Thanks Matt!