Matt, your GDX 78-min system went flat today, while GDX is
working on a reversal candle. It went long on Tuesday near the
close. Did it look for a pattern on 78-min charts or also on a
daily chart too? It went long near support.
Matt, There was professional buying on GDX near the close on
11/11, but a buy stop was never taken on the closing basis on
15-min charts. Following a trailing stop this way would have kept
the position short (or flat) on GDX into today. Contact me for a
chart, if interested.
Yes looked like it wanted to bounce technically on my side.
My stop didn't hit on GDX for some reason, so I chose to just
hold it and place the stop at today's lows. Even if it would
have hit I might have simply bought it back because it looked like
it wanted to bounce - perhaps we are starting a wave B bounce (not
a major bottom yet), gold needs time to work off this major wave
4.
other times I've had things stop out and then I buy them back
manually because I think the instrument is set to bounce - So I
always look at them and see if there's a reason I might not use the
stop or simply buy back in if stopped out.
Otherwise let's not over scrutinize each time the system stops
out of a trade, you are mixing other analysis and
systems with this- while astute trades can do that to make
subjective decisions to override system trades - there's a lot of
folks who do not wish to do that and just want to follow the
systems, and accepting the losing trades as with trend following
systems you get quit a few they only have around 50% to 60% winning
trades on the KISS systems, not like the mean reversion systems
that are like 90% winning trades. And I can tell you first
hand from experience that always second guessing system trades can
lead to trouble - I went through almost a whole year where I didn't
take any of the mean reversion system trades because for every
trade I could find a reason to second guess it - it becomes a
psychological nightmare that's hard to break. Finally I just forced
myself to do all the trades and not worry about it because in the
end they work out. Same for KISS - the stats are good, they
play out well over time, but there will plenty of losing trades and
times when they stop out at the low. The point I'm stressing
about subjectively overanalyzing each trade - that should only be
done by very astute traders with set trade plans and strategies -
most if they've made up their mind to trade the systems, should
just follow them.
the one thing I've mentioned that folks who have made the
commitment to take all the trades - if you want to add a slight
subjective component, vary your bet size depending on the system's
recent wins and losses - just like a professional gambler would in
a casino. The KISS systems tend to follow Elliot wave, where
after they catch a big trend winning trade, at least 1/2 the time
more more, the next trade is a small loss whipsaw, sometimes you
get a couple in a row. Rarely do you see two back to back huge
trend running trades - it's usually back and forth from big trade
to whipsaw, big trade to whipsaw. So one strategy is to
employ a casino betting strategy where you have a base amount,
let's say you are placing $10,000 into one of the system trades -
and let's say the system just caught a monster trade 20%, 30% or
higher etc - now you know that there are higher odds of the next
trade being a whipsaw - so, you still do the trade, but do so with
less size - maybe you drop it to $7000 or $6000, but you still do
it. And if it ends up being a losing trade - the next one bump it
back to 10K. IF you get 2 losing trades in a row - now you
know the system has very high odds at catching a big trend move
again - so you can up your bet size above the $10K base - anyway
I've commented on this many times, but here it is again
These are systems - they have set rules - they do not have the
ability to analyze all these other things.
let's not go over every single one of these, plus you are brand
new to this and perhaps hyper sensitive to over analyzing them and
you have not being a part of their wining trades
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Matt, your GDX 78-min system
Posted by junkie on 14th of Nov 2024 at 11:10 am
Matt, your GDX 78-min system went flat today, while GDX is working on a reversal candle. It went long on Tuesday near the close. Did it look for a pattern on 78-min charts or also on a daily chart too? It went long near support.
Matt, There was professional buying
Posted by junkie on 14th of Nov 2024 at 11:25 am
Matt, There was professional buying on GDX near the close on 11/11, but a buy stop was never taken on the closing basis on 15-min charts. Following a trailing stop this way would have kept the position short (or flat) on GDX into today. Contact me for a chart, if interested.
yes it hit its stop
Posted by matt on 14th of Nov 2024 at 11:48 am
yes it hit its stop then bounced, it happens
Yes looked like it wanted to bounce technically on my side. My stop didn't hit on GDX for some reason, so I chose to just hold it and place the stop at today's lows. Even if it would have hit I might have simply bought it back because it looked like it wanted to bounce - perhaps we are starting a wave B bounce (not a major bottom yet), gold needs time to work off this major wave 4.
other times I've had things stop out and then I buy them back manually because I think the instrument is set to bounce - So I always look at them and see if there's a reason I might not use the stop or simply buy back in if stopped out.
Otherwise let's not over scrutinize each time the system stops out of a trade, you are mixing other analysis and systems with this- while astute trades can do that to make subjective decisions to override system trades - there's a lot of folks who do not wish to do that and just want to follow the systems, and accepting the losing trades as with trend following systems you get quit a few they only have around 50% to 60% winning trades on the KISS systems, not like the mean reversion systems that are like 90% winning trades. And I can tell you first hand from experience that always second guessing system trades can lead to trouble - I went through almost a whole year where I didn't take any of the mean reversion system trades because for every trade I could find a reason to second guess it - it becomes a psychological nightmare that's hard to break. Finally I just forced myself to do all the trades and not worry about it because in the end they work out. Same for KISS - the stats are good, they play out well over time, but there will plenty of losing trades and times when they stop out at the low. The point I'm stressing about subjectively overanalyzing each trade - that should only be done by very astute traders with set trade plans and strategies - most if they've made up their mind to trade the systems, should just follow them.
the one thing I've mentioned that folks who have made the commitment to take all the trades - if you want to add a slight subjective component, vary your bet size depending on the system's recent wins and losses - just like a professional gambler would in a casino. The KISS systems tend to follow Elliot wave, where after they catch a big trend winning trade, at least 1/2 the time more more, the next trade is a small loss whipsaw, sometimes you get a couple in a row. Rarely do you see two back to back huge trend running trades - it's usually back and forth from big trade to whipsaw, big trade to whipsaw. So one strategy is to employ a casino betting strategy where you have a base amount, let's say you are placing $10,000 into one of the system trades - and let's say the system just caught a monster trade 20%, 30% or higher etc - now you know that there are higher odds of the next trade being a whipsaw - so, you still do the trade, but do so with less size - maybe you drop it to $7000 or $6000, but you still do it. And if it ends up being a losing trade - the next one bump it back to 10K. IF you get 2 losing trades in a row - now you know the system has very high odds at catching a big trend move again - so you can up your bet size above the $10K base - anyway I've commented on this many times, but here it is again
These are systems - they have set rules - they do not have the ability to analyze all these other things.
let's not go over every single one of these, plus you are brand new to this and perhaps hyper sensitive to over analyzing them and you have not being a part of their wining trades