$$UNEMPRATE - Chart Link- bumped up to 4.3%. As
you know from my discussions, the 5 and 13 EMA crossovers work very
well to signal macro changes in the unemployment rate. The 5
EMA crossed over the 9 EMA back in September 2023 when the
unemployment rate was only 3.8%. It predicted this uptrend nearly a
year ago - and when those MA's cross usually sets a trend that
lasts for years at times. So case in point, the unemployment rate
is likely going much higher for quite a long time. A recession is
coming, the unemployment rate moves like turning a big barge, not a
sports car, once the direction changes it tends to go in that
direction for a long period of time.
Also regarding politics, which I don't like to discuss here
because of the emotions it raises with folks, but this is reality.
Whomever becomes the next president, whether it's Trump or Kamala
will be blamed, even though they had nothing do it with because
it's been set in motion for a while now, doesn't matter who becomes
president, a recession is coming and the unemployment rate will
continue to only tick higher. While you could argue Kamala
has been vice president for the last 3 years and could hold some
responsibility - Trump has none, if he wins, he will be blamed for
the economic downturn even though it was not his fault as it was
already set in motion (the barge had already turned direction) and
he could have done nothing fast enough to stop it. I don't care if
you are the most ardent Trump hater - you can't logically blame him
for it even if your emotions want to.
$UST10Y:$UST2Y - Chart Link- The Yield curve is
the highest it's been in years now - 0.98, a big jump last week.
This has been inverted for over 760 days now, the second longest in
history, the longest since the 1920's. Once the ratio goes over 1,
back above zero, that typically means recession is
inevitable
Agree Matt. But I am not sure if there ever was a president in
history who could have EVER avoided a recession even they wanted to
try, even if they somehow knew what policies to implement (or to
avoid!). (And none of them do because so few of them know anything
about economics) Our economy is too complex and has too many
variables. Which is also its beauty.
I agree with all that Brophy and the complexities of
things.
I was simply pointing out the absurdity of what the press tends
and idiot talking heads tend to convey. Plus a lot of the dumb
population
jimsim - I said nothing about Trumps past policies or what the
cause was etc. Also Covid and all the freakin money thrown around,
handouts, money printing, the FED keep rates at zero for way too
damn long, in combination is what lead to the inflation. Simply
stated whoever is the next president will be blamed - you are the
one reaching and trying to start some argument which I'm not
getting into.
Both Dems and Republicans are spendaholics - there's no more
fiscal conservatives.
That post was not about Dems vs Republicans - let's not get into
that please thank you
Hmmm. I was not trying to start an argument. My comment does not
even strike me as political. but apolitical and merely an attempt
to follow up on your thoughts. But OK
brophyno no, your post was fine I said I agreed with you and
thanked you for your comments, no one was triggered by your
reply. There was a post earlier from someone who was a bit
triggered about my comments, search below you will see that
post.
my reply to you included my reply to you where I said I agreed
with your comments, while the second part of my reply was in
response to jimsim's post below
again we can all agree - politics suck because people get too
worked up these days. Let's all move on from that. Perhaps my
comment about Harris being in the current administration perhaps
holding some responsibility triggered that, but as we all know it's
a myrad of things and all that big spending, money printing and
handouts during Covid was a big cause, as well as supply chain
constraint's - then companies and sometimes use inflation as a
justification to raise prices even on things that they are not
seeing a cost increase on. And of course the spending continued
with the government and continues
Honestly guys - one of the biggest things that concern Steve and
myself is the BRICS and how it has been accelerating. It's
like a cancer growing under the surface (and most of the population
is naive about it) is the Brics with more and more countries
starting to do transactions without the US Dollar - it's been
growing, and really started to accelerate during this
Russia/Ukraine war - because the US basically confiscated Russia's
holding of US Bonds (took them) - and all these other countries who
saw that then rightfully start to wonder if that could also happen
to them, so more and more countries have started moving away from
the Dollar. The reason why the US has been able to get away
with running the printing presses like crazy and all these deficits
is because the US Dollar is the world reserve currency. If we
did not have them, we would have had hyperinflation that would
happen with any other country that spends like we do. My concern is
this Brics continues to grow, and we eventually lose that reserve
currency status, and with the politicians all spendaholics it could
get ugly down the road.
Anyway all we can do is take care of ourselves, not have too
much debt, have savings, have some gold and other things, make good
decisions etc. We'll see how this all plays out.
again let's all just leave it - I don't want it getting into Dem
vs Rep, it's a rabbit hole and not the place.
jimsim- I'm sorry if my post triggered you, I'll be more
careful on wording next time, I could have worded that better or
left it out entirely
Matt, your simplistic economic analysis betrays your political
bias. Trump's policies from his first Administration
contributed to the oncoming recession. Trump promised tax
cuts that would favor working and middle-class Americans, but in
reality gave tax cuts only to the most wealthy, widening income
inequality and encouraging massive tax fraud. Trump promised that
his tax cuts would pay for themselves by generating strong economic
growth, but that never occurred, and the tax cuts for the wealthy
ended up adding between 1 trillion and 2 trillion to the federal
debt
In addition, the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia's war in the Ukraine
and Federal Reserve policy mistakes were largely beyond Biden's
control. Were Biden's economic policies blame free? And were
all of Trump's policies unproductive? Of course not. But to
blame oncoming economic problems entirely on Biden and and Harris
detracts a little from your credibility on more pertinent issues to
subscribers. Oh - one more thing. Kamala has a last name,
just like Donald...
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Unemployment rate, and Yield Curve, the economy and big picture, and some politics
Posted by matt on 3rd of Aug 2024 at 01:52 pm
$$UNEMPRATE - Chart Link- bumped up to 4.3%. As you know from my discussions, the 5 and 13 EMA crossovers work very well to signal macro changes in the unemployment rate. The 5 EMA crossed over the 9 EMA back in September 2023 when the unemployment rate was only 3.8%. It predicted this uptrend nearly a year ago - and when those MA's cross usually sets a trend that lasts for years at times. So case in point, the unemployment rate is likely going much higher for quite a long time. A recession is coming, the unemployment rate moves like turning a big barge, not a sports car, once the direction changes it tends to go in that direction for a long period of time.
Also regarding politics, which I don't like to discuss here because of the emotions it raises with folks, but this is reality. Whomever becomes the next president, whether it's Trump or Kamala will be blamed, even though they had nothing do it with because it's been set in motion for a while now, doesn't matter who becomes president, a recession is coming and the unemployment rate will continue to only tick higher. While you could argue Kamala has been vice president for the last 3 years and could hold some responsibility - Trump has none, if he wins, he will be blamed for the economic downturn even though it was not his fault as it was already set in motion (the barge had already turned direction) and he could have done nothing fast enough to stop it. I don't care if you are the most ardent Trump hater - you can't logically blame him for it even if your emotions want to.
$UST10Y:$UST2Y - Chart Link- The Yield curve is the highest it's been in years now - 0.98, a big jump last week. This has been inverted for over 760 days now, the second longest in history, the longest since the 1920's. Once the ratio goes over 1, back above zero, that typically means recession is inevitable
Agree Matt. But I am
Posted by brophy on 3rd of Aug 2024 at 05:18 pm
Agree Matt. But I am not sure if there ever was a president in history who could have EVER avoided a recession even they wanted to try, even if they somehow knew what policies to implement (or to avoid!). (And none of them do because so few of them know anything about economics) Our economy is too complex and has too many variables. Which is also its beauty.
I agree with all that
Posted by matt on 4th of Aug 2024 at 12:26 am
I agree with all that Brophy and the complexities of things.
I was simply pointing out the absurdity of what the press tends and idiot talking heads tend to convey. Plus a lot of the dumb population
jimsim - I said nothing about Trumps past policies or what the cause was etc. Also Covid and all the freakin money thrown around, handouts, money printing, the FED keep rates at zero for way too damn long, in combination is what lead to the inflation. Simply stated whoever is the next president will be blamed - you are the one reaching and trying to start some argument which I'm not getting into.
Both Dems and Republicans are spendaholics - there's no more fiscal conservatives.
That post was not about Dems vs Republicans - let's not get into that please thank you
Hmmm. I was not trying
Posted by brophy on 4th of Aug 2024 at 06:48 am
Hmmm. I was not trying to start an argument. My comment does not even strike me as political. but apolitical and merely an attempt to follow up on your thoughts. But OK
brophyno no, your post was
Posted by matt on 4th of Aug 2024 at 12:41 pm
brophyno no, your post was fine I said I agreed with you and thanked you for your comments, no one was triggered by your reply. There was a post earlier from someone who was a bit triggered about my comments, search below you will see that post.
my reply to you included my reply to you where I said I agreed with your comments, while the second part of my reply was in response to jimsim's post below
again we can all agree - politics suck because people get too worked up these days. Let's all move on from that. Perhaps my comment about Harris being in the current administration perhaps holding some responsibility triggered that, but as we all know it's a myrad of things and all that big spending, money printing and handouts during Covid was a big cause, as well as supply chain constraint's - then companies and sometimes use inflation as a justification to raise prices even on things that they are not seeing a cost increase on. And of course the spending continued with the government and continues
Honestly guys - one of the biggest things that concern Steve and myself is the BRICS and how it has been accelerating. It's like a cancer growing under the surface (and most of the population is naive about it) is the Brics with more and more countries starting to do transactions without the US Dollar - it's been growing, and really started to accelerate during this Russia/Ukraine war - because the US basically confiscated Russia's holding of US Bonds (took them) - and all these other countries who saw that then rightfully start to wonder if that could also happen to them, so more and more countries have started moving away from the Dollar. The reason why the US has been able to get away with running the printing presses like crazy and all these deficits is because the US Dollar is the world reserve currency. If we did not have them, we would have had hyperinflation that would happen with any other country that spends like we do. My concern is this Brics continues to grow, and we eventually lose that reserve currency status, and with the politicians all spendaholics it could get ugly down the road.
Anyway all we can do is take care of ourselves, not have too much debt, have savings, have some gold and other things, make good decisions etc. We'll see how this all plays out.
again let's all just leave it - I don't want it getting into Dem vs Rep, it's a rabbit hole and not the place.
jimsim- I'm sorry if my post triggered you, I'll be more careful on wording next time, I could have worded that better or left it out entirely
Matt, your simplistic economic analysis
Posted by jimsim on 3rd of Aug 2024 at 02:57 pm
Matt, your simplistic economic analysis betrays your political bias. Trump's policies from his first Administration contributed to the oncoming recession. Trump promised tax cuts that would favor working and middle-class Americans, but in reality gave tax cuts only to the most wealthy, widening income inequality and encouraging massive tax fraud. Trump promised that his tax cuts would pay for themselves by generating strong economic growth, but that never occurred, and the tax cuts for the wealthy ended up adding between 1 trillion and 2 trillion to the federal debt
In addition, the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia's war in the Ukraine and Federal Reserve policy mistakes were largely beyond Biden's control. Were Biden's economic policies blame free? And were all of Trump's policies unproductive? Of course not. But to blame oncoming economic problems entirely on Biden and and Harris detracts a little from your credibility on more pertinent issues to subscribers. Oh - one more thing. Kamala has a last name, just like Donald...