As you know this system triggered a long on Monday for both SPY
and MES
As far as the mean reversion exit, that won't occur today, but
it may occur tomorrow, so heads up on that. The system is not
looking for a close above a short term MA, it's looking for the BPT
DS indicator to get up over 0.8%, currently it's at 0.58, but is
moving up quickly, yesterday it was 0.27 and now is 0.58, I woule
expect it to jump at least as much tomorrow on the open - and we'll
get a prelimary look at it today when the new ES bar opens at 6 pm.
I would not be surprised to see this pop up over 0.8 tomorrow
on SPY, and we'll see where it opens today at 6 pm on the new ES
daily bar
that said, I am going to test a secondary exit based on a close
above a short term MA such as the 5 or 8 MA, I'll test both and see
which one is best. But otherwise as is the system won't exit
today
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 03:42 pm
I don't mind losing out on full reversion to mean
trades...especially counter trend trades (price below 200 and
50 day MA). I've actually taken off 2/3 of the initial trade now,
so I have locked in a gain no matter what happens between now and
when the system trade actually closes. Taking 2/3's off at
1st target is kind of the magic number, in my experience. The
initial move is by far the highest probability part of the trade so
I start large knowing that I'm going to scale out of most in the
higher probability area of the trade. Of course, this is not an
option if you don't develop targets to start with.
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RSI oversold system trade discussion
Posted by matt on 1st of Nov 2023 at 03:23 pm
As you know this system triggered a long on Monday for both SPY and MES
As far as the mean reversion exit, that won't occur today, but it may occur tomorrow, so heads up on that. The system is not looking for a close above a short term MA, it's looking for the BPT DS indicator to get up over 0.8%, currently it's at 0.58, but is moving up quickly, yesterday it was 0.27 and now is 0.58, I woule expect it to jump at least as much tomorrow on the open - and we'll get a prelimary look at it today when the new ES bar opens at 6 pm. I would not be surprised to see this pop up over 0.8 tomorrow on SPY, and we'll see where it opens today at 6 pm on the new ES daily bar
that said, I am going to test a secondary exit based on a close above a short term MA such as the 5 or 8 MA, I'll test both and see which one is best. But otherwise as is the system won't exit today
Just trail up stop in
Posted by steve on 1st of Nov 2023 at 03:26 pm
Just trail up stop in accordance with your individual plan - you can be like Digi and lock in some gains. Big zone here
I don't mind losing out
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Nov 2023 at 03:42 pm
I don't mind losing out on full reversion to mean trades...especially counter trend trades (price below 200 and 50 day MA). I've actually taken off 2/3 of the initial trade now, so I have locked in a gain no matter what happens between now and when the system trade actually closes. Taking 2/3's off at 1st target is kind of the magic number, in my experience. The initial move is by far the highest probability part of the trade so I start large knowing that I'm going to scale out of most in the higher probability area of the trade. Of course, this is not an option if you don't develop targets to start with.