Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:47 am
Hey guys, I try to keep up with all the videos, trust me! But I
wanted to ask if you're even bearish anymore long term? The S&P
charts you would share used to show some longer-term estimates of
where we might go down deeper than last October and that doesn't
seem to be the narrative anymore. Mostly about the current uptrend
and what levels we'll see next as we keep going up.
Economically, it seems like there are so many things that should
be dragging this market down and yet, it just keeps pushing through
them and going up and to the right. I'm afraid we're back into the
next bull market and I'm not fully invested back into it. This is
just my nerves getting the best of me and my biggest downfall when
it comes to trading.
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:37 pm
Icecoldjones - Going long right here is akin to picking up
pennies in front of a bulldozer, IMO. TINA is not a thing anymore.
I don't know what broker you're with, but you're likely getting a
decent yield on uninvested cash. If not at 3.5% or higher, consider
a move into something like CSHI that invests in 1 - 3 month
treasuries and runs a very conservative option strategy over the
top to give you a 6%+ annualized yield and pays out monthly.
For S&P exposure, you could do something like PJUN, which
gives you a downside buffer around 9% but also gives around 15%
upside exposure. There are others like this with varying
characteristics. My personal fav is SPYI which I recently moved
into from JEPI. No downside buffer, but it does provide some
protection via an option strategy it runs over the top of the
S&P holdings (SPYI gets 60/40 on many of the gains, JEPI does
not).
to me the TNA made the most sense going heavy into a couple days
ago as the other indexes QQQ's especially that have lead this
market have shot most of their wad, whereas IWM seemed like it had
the most potential to play some catch up and move a larger % than
SPX or QQQ if the market kept going higher, seeing that effect
today
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:45 pm
Interesting insights, DigiNomad! The majority of my funds are in
Fidelity and they do auto-invest cash into their savings vehicle
which is earning something at least and then I play the SPY systems
here with SPXS/SPXL. I'm waiting for the next big bull run to put
everything back into long SPY funds but not sure when that'll be.
I'll have to look into those items you discussed as I'm not
familiar with them and could be a good option. Thanks!
come on man- first off I just ran the stats - 97% of our trade
ideas this year have been longs, longs, not shorts
2. back in Oct we favored a good trade low with the 5 completed
waves and favored over time a move up to the 61.8% Fib 4300 - 4350
area over time, and maybe into the summer.
while we may not have favored a rally as a new bull market - we
favored overall uptrend and we play what is in front of us. Do you
see us out here shorting everything, not putting out
longs?
systems have been doing longs even reversion to mean - SPY
breakout the other day
KISS systems been long
make a plan, follow it, follow your triggers.
we can always do better and we always strive to and to improve,
but I think we do a damn good job here. and we are far from
perfect, but we are no Jim Crammer and Tom Lee
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 12:28 pm
Thanks for the responses, Matt and Steve. I completely agree
too, I personally need to work on a ton still and you guys have
totally been bullish (at least short-term all year) and have been
showing that with all the longs and the KISS systems. You guys have
definitely been predicting a majority of the moves and are spot on.
I'm not saying anyone made a wrong call.
The point of my question was to ask if the long-term outlook has
changed. You guys have killed the short-term month after month
after month, the figures make that perfectly clear!
Absolutely and last weekend I broke down all indices and sectors
- the magnificent 7 impacts on the indices and specific sectors.
Keep it simple higher highs and higher lows remain but what
some fail to mention are all the gyrations in between that we have
profited on immensely (at least those who have a PLAN did).
Most recently it was the broadening pattern that contained price
for nearly 2 months. Again - start focusing on YOUR PLAN
instead of relying upon prognostications. Stop being lazy -
your performance will only improve once you put in the effort and
establish a proper plan.
Hi Steve, You mention "Follow your plan" quite often.
Could you please outline what a swing trader's plan might
look like - for those of us who don't day trade nor know how to
properly create a plan?
Start out by reading the above sticky (Top Down Approach and
click on the Title Link ) and using the Search Function for some
past references. Also many of the ideas here are NOT just for
day traders - take time to review many of the past setups
(especially longer term base plays).
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:53 am
haha, my name is Ian but I hear what you're saying. If we're
currently in wave 5, then I really want to know what's
next... as I'm sure we all wish we knew.
Ian - to be clear - what I mapped out was shorter term structure
only - I view the move up as a complex corrective move BUT all that
matters is the trend and one should respect until evidence changes.
See my liquidity post as well from May 16th.
Lastly, what matters is YOUR PLAN not some prognostication - remove
that from your thinking and you will see a vast improvement.
Does anyone here realize that the entire move off the October
lows is simply an expansion of P/E? That's a FACT earnings
have contracted - again who cares as liquidity drives the market so
simply respect the trend until evidence changes. More
importantly, take TIME to develop and institute a PLAN each
and EVERY DAY.
Spend time on YOUR PLAN instead of prognostications - too many
want to be told what exactly will transpire instead of trading a
PLAN. Respect the trend until evidence changes. What
matters is YOUR PLAN not what someone forecasts.
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Hey guys, I try to
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:47 am
Hey guys, I try to keep up with all the videos, trust me! But I wanted to ask if you're even bearish anymore long term? The S&P charts you would share used to show some longer-term estimates of where we might go down deeper than last October and that doesn't seem to be the narrative anymore. Mostly about the current uptrend and what levels we'll see next as we keep going up.
Economically, it seems like there are so many things that should be dragging this market down and yet, it just keeps pushing through them and going up and to the right. I'm afraid we're back into the next bull market and I'm not fully invested back into it. This is just my nerves getting the best of me and my biggest downfall when it comes to trading.
Icecoldjones - Going long right
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:37 pm
Icecoldjones - Going long right here is akin to picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer, IMO. TINA is not a thing anymore. I don't know what broker you're with, but you're likely getting a decent yield on uninvested cash. If not at 3.5% or higher, consider a move into something like CSHI that invests in 1 - 3 month treasuries and runs a very conservative option strategy over the top to give you a 6%+ annualized yield and pays out monthly. For S&P exposure, you could do something like PJUN, which gives you a downside buffer around 9% but also gives around 15% upside exposure. There are others like this with varying characteristics. My personal fav is SPYI which I recently moved into from JEPI. No downside buffer, but it does provide some protection via an option strategy it runs over the top of the S&P holdings (SPYI gets 60/40 on many of the gains, JEPI does not).
Thanks for sharing some of
Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:53 pm
Thanks for sharing some of those vehicles
to me the TNA made
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:46 pm
to me the TNA made the most sense going heavy into a couple days ago as the other indexes QQQ's especially that have lead this market have shot most of their wad, whereas IWM seemed like it had the most potential to play some catch up and move a larger % than SPX or QQQ if the market kept going higher, seeing that effect today
Interesting insights, DigiNomad! The majority
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:45 pm
Interesting insights, DigiNomad! The majority of my funds are in Fidelity and they do auto-invest cash into their savings vehicle which is earning something at least and then I play the SPY systems here with SPXS/SPXL. I'm waiting for the next big bull run to put everything back into long SPY funds but not sure when that'll be. I'll have to look into those items you discussed as I'm not familiar with them and could be a good option. Thanks!
My thoughts exactly as BPT
Posted by imelhoe on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:54 am
My thoughts exactly as BPT was so bearish not too long ago
come on man- first off
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 12:00 pm
come on man- first off I just ran the stats - 97% of our trade ideas this year have been longs, longs, not shorts
2. back in Oct we favored a good trade low with the 5 completed waves and favored over time a move up to the 61.8% Fib 4300 - 4350 area over time, and maybe into the summer.
while we may not have favored a rally as a new bull market - we favored overall uptrend and we play what is in front of us. Do you see us out here shorting everything, not putting out longs?
systems have been doing longs even reversion to mean - SPY breakout the other day
KISS systems been long
make a plan, follow it, follow your triggers.
we can always do better and we always strive to and to improve, but I think we do a damn good job here. and we are far from perfect, but we are no Jim Crammer and Tom Lee
Thanks for the responses, Matt
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 12:28 pm
Thanks for the responses, Matt and Steve. I completely agree too, I personally need to work on a ton still and you guys have totally been bullish (at least short-term all year) and have been showing that with all the longs and the KISS systems. You guys have definitely been predicting a majority of the moves and are spot on. I'm not saying anyone made a wrong call.
The point of my question was to ask if the long-term outlook has changed. You guys have killed the short-term month after month after month, the figures make that perfectly clear!
Absolutely and last weekend I
Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 12:10 pm
Absolutely and last weekend I broke down all indices and sectors - the magnificent 7 impacts on the indices and specific sectors. Keep it simple higher highs and higher lows remain but what some fail to mention are all the gyrations in between that we have profited on immensely (at least those who have a PLAN did). Most recently it was the broadening pattern that contained price for nearly 2 months. Again - start focusing on YOUR PLAN instead of relying upon prognostications. Stop being lazy - your performance will only improve once you put in the effort and establish a proper plan.
Hi Steve, You mention "Follow
Posted by mrbass77 on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 01:17 pm
Hi Steve, You mention "Follow your plan" quite often. Could you please outline what a swing trader's plan might look like - for those of us who don't day trade nor know how to properly create a plan?
Start out by reading the
Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 01:20 pm
Start out by reading the above sticky (Top Down Approach and click on the Title Link ) and using the Search Function for some past references. Also many of the ideas here are NOT just for day traders - take time to review many of the past setups (especially longer term base plays).
Sentiment getting frothy?
Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:55 am
Sentiment getting frothy?
again Jason just follow price
Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:49 am
again Jason just follow price action for now - we expected this up move this week as we favored the pullback as a wave 4 and another move as 5
now with today's move we got stretched
haha, my name is Ian
Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:53 am
haha, my name is Ian but I hear what you're saying. If we're currently in wave 5, then I really want to know what's next... as I'm sure we all wish we knew.
Ian - to be clear
Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 12:30 pm
Ian - to be clear - what I mapped out was shorter term structure only - I view the move up as a complex corrective move BUT all that matters is the trend and one should respect until evidence changes. See my liquidity post as well from May 16th. Lastly, what matters is YOUR PLAN not some prognostication - remove that from your thinking and you will see a vast improvement. Does anyone here realize that the entire move off the October lows is simply an expansion of P/E? That's a FACT earnings have contracted - again who cares as liquidity drives the market so simply respect the trend until evidence changes. More importantly, take TIME to develop and institute a PLAN each and EVERY DAY.
Spend time on YOUR PLAN
Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:55 am
Spend time on YOUR PLAN instead of prognostications - too many want to be told what exactly will transpire instead of trading a PLAN. Respect the trend until evidence changes. What matters is YOUR PLAN not what someone forecasts.