Hey guys, I try to

    Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:47 am

    Hey guys, I try to keep up with all the videos, trust me! But I wanted to ask if you're even bearish anymore long term? The S&P charts you would share used to show some longer-term estimates of where we might go down deeper than last October and that doesn't seem to be the narrative anymore. Mostly about the current uptrend and what levels we'll see next as we keep going up.

    Economically, it seems like there are so many things that should be dragging this market down and yet, it just keeps pushing through them and going up and to the right. I'm afraid we're back into the next bull market and I'm not fully invested back into it. This is just my nerves getting the best of me and my biggest downfall when it comes to trading.

    Icecoldjones -  Going long right

    Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:37 pm

    Icecoldjones -  Going long right here is akin to picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer, IMO. TINA is not a thing anymore. I don't know what broker you're with, but you're likely getting a decent yield on uninvested cash. If not at 3.5% or higher, consider a move into something like CSHI that invests in 1 - 3 month treasuries and runs a very conservative option strategy over the top to give you a 6%+ annualized yield and pays out monthly.  For S&P exposure, you could do something like PJUN, which gives you a downside buffer around 9% but also gives around 15% upside exposure. There are others like this with varying characteristics. My personal fav is SPYI which I recently moved into from JEPI. No downside buffer, but it does provide some protection via an option strategy it runs over the top of the S&P holdings (SPYI gets 60/40 on many of the gains, JEPI does not). 

    Thanks for sharing some of

    Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:53 pm

    Thanks for sharing some of those vehicles 

    to me the TNA made

    Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:46 pm

    to me the TNA made the most sense going heavy into a couple days ago as the other indexes QQQ's especially that have lead this market have shot most of their wad, whereas IWM seemed like it had the most potential to play some catch up and move a larger % than SPX or QQQ if the market kept going higher, seeing that effect today

    Interesting insights, DigiNomad! The majority

    Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 02:45 pm

    Interesting insights, DigiNomad! The majority of my funds are in Fidelity and they do auto-invest cash into their savings vehicle which is earning something at least and then I play the SPY systems here with SPXS/SPXL. I'm waiting for the next big bull run to put everything back into long SPY funds but not sure when that'll be. I'll have to look into those items you discussed as I'm not familiar with them and could be a good option. Thanks!

    My thoughts exactly as BPT

    Posted by imelhoe on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:54 am

    My thoughts exactly as BPT was so bearish not too long ago

    come on man- first off

    Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 12:00 pm

    come on man- first off I just ran the stats - 97% of our trade ideas this year have been longs, longs, not shorts

    2. back in Oct we favored a good trade low with the 5 completed waves and favored over time a move up to the 61.8% Fib 4300 - 4350 area over time, and maybe into the summer. 

    while we may not have favored a rally as a new bull market - we favored overall uptrend and we play what is in front of us. Do you see us out here shorting everything, not putting out longs? 

    systems have been doing longs even reversion to mean - SPY breakout the other day

    KISS systems been long

    make a plan, follow it, follow your triggers. 

    we can always do better and we always strive to and to improve, but I think we do a damn good job here. and we are far from perfect, but we are no Jim Crammer and Tom Lee

    Thanks for the responses, Matt

    Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 12:28 pm

    Thanks for the responses, Matt and Steve. I completely agree too, I personally need to work on a ton still and you guys have totally been bullish (at least short-term all year) and have been showing that with all the longs and the KISS systems. You guys have definitely been predicting a majority of the moves and are spot on. I'm not saying anyone made a wrong call.

    The point of my question was to ask if the long-term outlook has changed. You guys have killed the short-term month after month after month, the figures make that perfectly clear!

    Absolutely and last weekend I

    Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 12:10 pm

    Absolutely and last weekend I broke down all indices and sectors - the magnificent 7 impacts on the indices and specific sectors.   Keep it simple higher highs and higher lows remain but what some fail to mention are all the gyrations in between that we have profited on immensely (at least those who have a PLAN did).   Most recently it was the broadening pattern that contained price for nearly 2 months.   Again - start focusing on YOUR PLAN instead of relying upon prognostications.   Stop being lazy - your performance will only improve once you put in the effort and establish a proper plan. 

    Hi Steve,  You mention "Follow

    Posted by mrbass77 on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 01:17 pm

    Hi Steve,  You mention "Follow your plan" quite often.  Could you please outline what a swing trader's plan might look like - for those of us who don't day trade nor know how to properly create a plan?

    Start out by reading the

    Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 01:20 pm

    Start out by reading the above sticky (Top Down Approach and click on the Title Link ) and using the Search Function for some past references.  Also many of the ideas here are NOT just for day traders - take time to review many of the past setups (especially longer term base plays).  

    Sentiment getting frothy?

    Posted by timebandit on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:55 am

    Sentiment getting frothy?

    again Jason just follow price

    Posted by matt on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:49 am

    again Jason just follow price action for now - we expected this up move this week as we favored the pullback as a wave 4 and another move as 5

    now with today's move we got stretched

    haha, my name is Ian

    Posted by icecoldjones on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:53 am

    haha, my name is Ian but I hear what you're saying. If we're currently in wave 5, then I really want to know what's next...      as I'm sure we all wish we knew.

    Ian - to be clear

    Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 12:30 pm

    Ian - to be clear - what I mapped out was shorter term structure only - I view the move up as a complex corrective move BUT all that matters is the trend and one should respect until evidence changes.    See my liquidity post as well from May 16th.   Lastly, what matters is YOUR PLAN not some prognostication - remove that from your thinking and you will see a vast improvement.    Does anyone here realize that the entire move off the October lows is simply an expansion of P/E?  That's a FACT earnings have contracted - again who cares as liquidity drives the market so simply respect the trend until evidence changes.  More importantly,  take TIME to develop and institute a PLAN each and EVERY DAY. 

    Spend time on YOUR PLAN

    Posted by steve on 2nd of Jun 2023 at 11:55 am

    Spend time on YOUR PLAN instead of prognostications - too many want to be told what exactly will transpire instead of trading a PLAN.  Respect the trend until evidence changes.  What matters is YOUR PLAN not what someone forecasts.   

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