However, it isn’t just the yield curve indicator we are watching
but also the Leading Economic Index (LEI), particularly its 6-month
rate of change. As a recession indicator, the LEI has a flawless
track record of warning of impending downturns.
For investors, the challenge will be discerning who is right or
wrong.
If the analysts are correct, earnings have likely troughed, and
stock prices will rise into 2023. Such will mark the bottom of the
“bear market”as of October 2022. If incorrect, the economy
will slow as a recession sets in, earnings will decline as
unemployment rises, and stock prices will fall further.
Since the LEI index has a high correlation to the
change in economic growth and earnings, we need to pay attention to
it for positive changes.
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Leading Indicators Warn Of Recession However,
Posted by EdZ on 1st of Apr 2023 at 04:00 pm
Leading Indicators Warn Of Recession
However, it isn’t just the yield curve indicator we are watching but also the Leading Economic Index (LEI), particularly its 6-month rate of change. As a recession indicator, the LEI has a flawless track record of warning of impending downturns.
Someone Is Going To Be
Posted by EdZ on 1st of Apr 2023 at 04:12 pm
Someone Is Going To Be Wrong
For investors, the challenge will be discerning who is right or wrong.
If the analysts are correct, earnings have likely troughed, and stock prices will rise into 2023. Such will mark the bottom of the “bear market”as of October 2022. If incorrect, the economy will slow as a recession sets in, earnings will decline as unemployment rises, and stock prices will fall further. Since the LEI index has a high correlation to the change in economic growth and earnings, we need to pay attention to it for positive changes.