The exit signal occurred yesterday but the system exits on the
next day's open which is this mornings open. With ES futures up 26
clearly the system will have a better exit this morning vs
yesterday's lows
the reversion to mean systems are more like Ty Cobb hitting
singles, doubles with a high batting average vs homeruns like Babe
Ruth, McGuire etc.
that said from time to time they will catch big trades - we
haven't seen one in a while, but sometimes the bear long, bear
exhaust, QE BTS , RSI oversold can catch trades and hold them for 2
months for 10 - 20% moves. We'll see one of those again eventually,
but otherwise most of the trades are singles or doubles
for example here's a couple bear long system trades in the past
that caught massive winners and held them for 2 plus months. It's
been a while since the systems caught something like that, but it
will happen again sometime in the future. Otherwise most trades are
singles or doubles per the baseball analogy
Have had another look at the past 6-12 months of trading.
Trading the system with futures(MES-ES and MNQ-NQ) has been twice
as profitable as my option trades in the same period. I hate
mssing out on the long option trades on a signal like the bear long
Matt shows in the posting and do therefore trade debit spread
options with expiry at least 60 days out. Any thoughts from the
other option traders out thereon how to make the option trades more
profiitable?
Remember the SPY QE BTS exiting in the morning
Posted by matt on 3rd of Mar 2023 at 09:14 am
The exit signal occurred yesterday but the system exits on the next day's open which is this mornings open. With ES futures up 26 clearly the system will have a better exit this morning vs yesterday's lows
shows the exit. Remember the
Posted by matt on 3rd of Mar 2023 at 09:34 am
shows the exit. Remember the Trend/Pullback system is still long
shows the table, updated. again
Posted by matt on 3rd of Mar 2023 at 09:40 am
shows the table, updated. again still have Trend/Pullback system open
Thanks again Matt. I have
Posted by retirefire on 3rd of Mar 2023 at 09:53 am
Thanks again Matt. I have to remember ... going long in a bear market will not usually produce grand slam results. Take the singles and doubles
the reversion to mean systems
Posted by matt on 3rd of Mar 2023 at 09:55 am
the reversion to mean systems are more like Ty Cobb hitting singles, doubles with a high batting average vs homeruns like Babe Ruth, McGuire etc.
that said from time to time they will catch big trades - we haven't seen one in a while, but sometimes the bear long, bear exhaust, QE BTS , RSI oversold can catch trades and hold them for 2 months for 10 - 20% moves. We'll see one of those again eventually, but otherwise most of the trades are singles or doubles
for example here's a couple
Posted by matt on 3rd of Mar 2023 at 10:00 am
for example here's a couple bear long system trades in the past that caught massive winners and held them for 2 plus months. It's been a while since the systems caught something like that, but it will happen again sometime in the future. Otherwise most trades are singles or doubles per the baseball analogy
Have had another look at
Posted by mundy on 4th of Mar 2023 at 09:25 pm
Have had another look at the past 6-12 months of trading. Trading the system with futures(MES-ES and MNQ-NQ) has been twice as profitable as my option trades in the same period. I hate mssing out on the long option trades on a signal like the bear long Matt shows in the posting and do therefore trade debit spread options with expiry at least 60 days out. Any thoughts from the other option traders out thereon how to make the option trades more profiitable?
I'm curious about this also
Posted by skwan1940 on 6th of Mar 2023 at 08:57 am
I'm curious about this also as I want to trade the system using options in a small legacy account I have. Thanks.