Posted by icecoldjones on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:12 pm
Professional Opinion Request
Everyone here has been doing this longer than I have, only 10
years here, but in your professional opinion, how is the market up
on a day where CPI inflation figures were worse than expected and
6.4% is now an acceptable level of inflation? Maybe I'm missing
something but nothing seems to make sense anymore. Are there bigger
things at play or are we just such small retail players that we
can't comprehend what is going on at a macro level? The last few
months have been like bizarro world and up is down, left is right,
black is white, etc.
It's as if everyone is so Bullish now and feels like the bear
market is over that nothing can stop them from rallying this
market. It just feels like there is no logic at the moment and I
know a lot of the expertise here is reading charts but I just feel
like all economic news is good news now.
So far nothing has been able to stop this rally, even today's
inflation print. Most major indexes are approaching
overbought, on daily charts, but they all have room to run up more
before hitting the tops of their bollinger bands. The QQQ,
SPY and IWM all got "9" sell signals on DeMark charts several days
ago and still hover near those same levels. the DIA got a "13" sell
signal in late November 2022. It's bounced up and down a bit
since, but is currently right back at that same level. I'm having a
very hard time finding anything to buy, but I've been pretty
unlucky with shorts. Therefore I'm just sitting and
waiting.
Posted by mastermind on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:53 pm
You do realize that those Demark signals go away once there is a
big enough pullback from those levels, right? Someone can correct
me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that those are necessarily
supposed to represent future resistance levels.
All these talking heads on same page now so they squeezed the
shorts today hold it up to close out or trim their positions. I
have weekly sells on spy etc. daily up signals so say up 3-4 days.
Than Feb 23 rd as a turn date also to head south into march.
Than will be looking for a low in GDX and or gold stocks to load
up. Into fall of this year should be very interesting...
rp, the seasonal trend for the OpEx week in February is a high
on Wednesday, and a drop into Friday. Brokers had to buy futures to
offset calls bought by their clients. When calls expire, future
long positions will be unwound. I concur with your
observations.
icecoldjones, professionals are not bullish above 4140ish level,
which is a fair price of this market. 4180 at most or about 13000
on /NQ. Above those levels they will sell short. Watching the debt
market is the key. When bond yields begin to drop, all apparent
bullishness will vanish. Remember that professionals trade supply
and demand levels, not chart patterns.
You could liken this market to a house of card, which barely
stands put. A puff of wind and down it goes.
that would be a hell of an extreme to the upside, which will
cleanse all short holders. At that point, everyone will have
already bought, and no one will be left to buy higher.
Posted by icecoldjones on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:35 pm
Thanks for all the input guys and plenty of food for thought!
Obviously, I'm here for some great reversion to mean trades but the
knowledge everyone shares and the discussion is well worth the
value you get!
P.S. The Community tab is accessible without logging in and I
don't think non-subscribers should get to read all the great stuff
you guys provide! Just my 2 cents!
I find it so surprising how people talk about being bullish at
the highs. How about when everyone was calling for end of the world
at SPX 3500. or when Tesla was 100.
and now when we have long term indicators also turning the
corner , we are still talking about “loading the bus”.
Basically it tells me they will be perma bears. They don’t
have trust in any business or economy. And every time we have a
50-100 point , we celebrate because one day they will be
right.
Posted by fredsaid on 14th of Feb 2023 at 09:31 pm
Well said... as for that TSLA wave 4, that was um...short like
me lol but I know one day I will be right :) hope it doesn't
have to get back to 300 before I am.
Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:28 pm
4300 wouldn't surprise me, but only because the 61.8 Fib is such
a strong magnet. If we do make a run to that level, or above, I
will put on the largest short of my life (probably start with short
SPX 4600 calls).
Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:17 pm
Actually a relatively easy answer: The US Gov (and other Govs to
a much lesser extent) unleashed the largest set of stimulus
packages that the economy has ever experienced...by quite a few
multiples...and it's not even close to being spent yet. Will likely
take years to work through the system and normalize after such an
extreme amount of stimulus.
Great point junkie on professionals buying supply and selling
demand zones.
when we trading 3500-3700 , that was the time to buy rather
than blow the bearish trumpet and celebrate effectively scaring off
lot of weak hands from buying. Masses react to emotions easily.
few weeks ago I posted a weekend article from WSJ about
Tesla. That article set the stage for a reversal. While people were
making fun of Elon. Even BPT called for a stage 4 bounce and for
tesla to eventually go to 50 or something like that. I am so glad
that I got the chance to buy and accumulate massive amounts at low
prices. Imagine people who bought AAPL UNH during GFC /
covid
Completely agree Arun, these companies aren't going anywhere so
I was doing same, vs trying to trade crypto-crap and all these
penny stocks which is like trying to throw darts blindfolded. I
also traded the "non" system alert from last week. Sometimes you've
gotta put your money where your mouth is.
The tricky one atm is Nat Gas, there are obviously bigger forces
at play trying to suppress it, but it wont last long, once again it
ain't going anywhere, so you need to take some heat on those
cahones. Just my style :)
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Professional Opinion Request Everyone here has
Posted by icecoldjones on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:12 pm
Professional Opinion Request
Everyone here has been doing this longer than I have, only 10 years here, but in your professional opinion, how is the market up on a day where CPI inflation figures were worse than expected and 6.4% is now an acceptable level of inflation? Maybe I'm missing something but nothing seems to make sense anymore. Are there bigger things at play or are we just such small retail players that we can't comprehend what is going on at a macro level? The last few months have been like bizarro world and up is down, left is right, black is white, etc.
It's as if everyone is so Bullish now and feels like the bear market is over that nothing can stop them from rallying this market. It just feels like there is no logic at the moment and I know a lot of the expertise here is reading charts but I just feel like all economic news is good news now.
Market climbs a wall of
Posted by cozz101 on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:51 pm
Market climbs a wall of worry!
Also, noticing the 13 ema has crossed the 34 ema on the weekly chart. Slow mover but maybe an indication of a change in overall direction?
So far nothing has been
Posted by pkrsek on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:41 pm
So far nothing has been able to stop this rally, even today's inflation print. Most major indexes are approaching overbought, on daily charts, but they all have room to run up more before hitting the tops of their bollinger bands. The QQQ, SPY and IWM all got "9" sell signals on DeMark charts several days ago and still hover near those same levels. the DIA got a "13" sell signal in late November 2022. It's bounced up and down a bit since, but is currently right back at that same level. I'm having a very hard time finding anything to buy, but I've been pretty unlucky with shorts. Therefore I'm just sitting and waiting.
yep - we gotta get
Posted by matt on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:59 pm
yep - we gotta get the buss loaded first - still some seats left
You do realize that those
Posted by mastermind on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:53 pm
You do realize that those Demark signals go away once there is a big enough pullback from those levels, right? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that those are necessarily supposed to represent future resistance levels.
It does. A TDST resistance
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 14th of Feb 2023 at 04:07 pm
It does. A TDST resistance was created on that "9" so a break out through that level will start the trend (same idea as traditional TA).
TDST. ? stands for what
Posted by watcdy on 14th of Feb 2023 at 04:11 pm
TDST. ? stands for what please ?
https://www.litefinance.org/blog/for-professionals/technical-analysis-tool-by-tom-demark-td-sequential/ Basically a range was formed
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 14th of Feb 2023 at 04:19 pm
https://www.litefinance.org/blog/for-professionals/technical-analysis-tool-by-tom-demark-td-sequential/
Basically a range was formed from initiation to end of that 9 set up. SPX needs to break 4211 TDST resistance in this case.
once they are set they
Posted by matt on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:58 pm
once they are set they stay - if the bar isn't closed it may go away.
All these talking heads on
Posted by RP on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:53 pm
All these talking heads on same page now so they squeezed the shorts today hold it up to close out or trim their positions. I have weekly sells on spy etc. daily up signals so say up 3-4 days. Than Feb 23 rd as a turn date also to head south into march. Than will be looking for a low in GDX and or gold stocks to load up. Into fall of this year should be very interesting...
rp, the seasonal trend for
Posted by junkie on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:57 pm
rp, the seasonal trend for the OpEx week in February is a high on Wednesday, and a drop into Friday. Brokers had to buy futures to offset calls bought by their clients. When calls expire, future long positions will be unwound. I concur with your observations.
you cannot fight central banks
Posted by junkie on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:48 pm
you cannot fight central banks with their unlimited liquidity, deployed on demand and undeployed shortly after.
icecoldjones, professionals are not bullish
Posted by junkie on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:22 pm
icecoldjones, professionals are not bullish above 4140ish level, which is a fair price of this market. 4180 at most or about 13000 on /NQ. Above those levels they will sell short. Watching the debt market is the key. When bond yields begin to drop, all apparent bullishness will vanish. Remember that professionals trade supply and demand levels, not chart patterns.
You could liken this market to a house of card, which barely stands put. A puff of wind and down it goes.
Except that our resident professional,
Posted by mastermind on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:26 pm
Except that our resident professional, Matt, thinks that 4300 could be in play, right?
that would be a hell
Posted by junkie on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:29 pm
that would be a hell of an extreme to the upside, which will cleanse all short holders. At that point, everyone will have already bought, and no one will be left to buy higher.
4% higher to take us
Posted by mastermind on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:48 pm
4% higher to take us to the August highs would be a "hell of an extreme"? OK, whatever.
as always we can have
Posted by matt on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:29 pm
as always we can have our opinions, monitor, analyze, and react/adjust to what occurs
Thanks for all the input
Posted by icecoldjones on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:35 pm
Thanks for all the input guys and plenty of food for thought! Obviously, I'm here for some great reversion to mean trades but the knowledge everyone shares and the discussion is well worth the value you get!
P.S. The Community tab is accessible without logging in and I don't think non-subscribers should get to read all the great stuff you guys provide! Just my 2 cents!
I find it so surprising
Posted by arun on 14th of Feb 2023 at 08:55 pm
I find it so surprising how people talk about being bullish at the highs. How about when everyone was calling for end of the world at SPX 3500. or when Tesla was 100.
and now when we have long term indicators also turning the corner , we are still talking about “loading the bus”.
Basically it tells me they will be perma bears. They don’t have trust in any business or economy. And every time we have a 50-100 point , we celebrate because one day they will be right.
Well said... as for that
Posted by fredsaid on 14th of Feb 2023 at 09:31 pm
Well said... as for that TSLA wave 4, that was um...short like me lol but I know one day I will be right :) hope it doesn't have to get back to 300 before I am.
Look at all these suckers
Posted by arun on 14th of Feb 2023 at 11:40 pm
Look at all these suckers buying put options ahead of CPI expecting a “CRASH” doom and gloom
They deserve it.
I sold a ton of
Posted by DigiNomad on 15th of Feb 2023 at 01:49 am
I sold a ton of SPX calls ahead of CPI print and had my best day of the year so far, thank you very much.
4300 wouldn't surprise me, but
Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:28 pm
4300 wouldn't surprise me, but only because the 61.8 Fib is such a strong magnet. If we do make a run to that level, or above, I will put on the largest short of my life (probably start with short SPX 4600 calls).
Actually a relatively easy answer:
Posted by DigiNomad on 14th of Feb 2023 at 03:17 pm
Actually a relatively easy answer: The US Gov (and other Govs to a much lesser extent) unleashed the largest set of stimulus packages that the economy has ever experienced...by quite a few multiples...and it's not even close to being spent yet. Will likely take years to work through the system and normalize after such an extreme amount of stimulus.
Great point junkie on professionals
Posted by arun on 14th of Feb 2023 at 09:02 pm
Great point junkie on professionals buying supply and selling demand zones.
when we trading 3500-3700 , that was the time to buy rather than blow the bearish trumpet and celebrate effectively scaring off lot of weak hands from buying. Masses react to emotions easily.
few weeks ago I posted a weekend article from WSJ about Tesla. That article set the stage for a reversal. While people were making fun of Elon. Even BPT called for a stage 4 bounce and for tesla to eventually go to 50 or something like that. I am so glad that I got the chance to buy and accumulate massive amounts at low prices. Imagine people who bought AAPL UNH during GFC / covid
Completely agree Arun, these companies
Posted by vasiboy on 14th of Feb 2023 at 09:17 pm
Completely agree Arun, these companies aren't going anywhere so I was doing same, vs trying to trade crypto-crap and all these penny stocks which is like trying to throw darts blindfolded. I also traded the "non" system alert from last week. Sometimes you've gotta put your money where your mouth is.
The tricky one atm is Nat Gas, there are obviously bigger forces at play trying to suppress it, but it wont last long, once again it ain't going anywhere, so you need to take some heat on those cahones. Just my style :)