SPX expanded flat playing out

    Posted by steve on 8th of Feb 2023 at 11:25 am

    SPX expanded flat playing out after ES lost pivot and unable to reclaim 

    Expanding flat is to the

    Posted by junkie on 8th of Feb 2023 at 11:56 am

    Expanding flat is to the downside in wave 4 down or A-B-C down, as shown on the picture, isn't it?

    does that mean a likely

    Posted by greggone on 8th of Feb 2023 at 11:36 am

    does that mean a likely undercut of yesterday’s low before pushing back up to complete the impulse up? Or does it not need to undercut the low to be an expanded flat? Thanks…


    I guess my question is

    Posted by greggone on 8th of Feb 2023 at 11:57 am

    I guess my question is how do you know it’s an expanded flat playing out vs a running flat? Trying to understand if there’s some indication I’m not recognizing… 

    My hunch is that there

    Posted by junkie on 8th of Feb 2023 at 12:14 pm

    My hunch is that there is not much room to run to the upside without hitting the Bollinger band in a day or two. In other words, moving averages are too far from the price, so either the price must come down (correction in place) or the MAs must go up (correction in time). Because we are in a corrective move since October, a correction in price occurs more frequently, as an observation.

    I was fooled by this pattern myself while still expecting a retest of EMA 9 at least before going higher. Possibly EMA21 for a buying opportunity and a swing trade to the upside.

    Thanks, there’s a lot in

    Posted by greggone on 8th of Feb 2023 at 12:26 pm

    Thanks, there’s a lot in here, very much appreciate walking thru your thoughts on this… this discussion is very helpful!

    It's hard to know until

    Posted by diabloblanco on 8th of Feb 2023 at 12:07 pm

    It's hard to know until it's done   but a flat is a 3,3, 5 structure    if the B wave makes a new high   and you have two 3 waves structures  A and B  in place that would be your first clue

    If B doesn't exceed the origin of A you won't know until or if the A wave low is taken out by wave C

    My 2 Cents 

    Thanks Diablo & Junkie appreciate

    Posted by greggone on 8th of Feb 2023 at 12:22 pm

    Thanks Diablo & Junkie appreciate the comments… seems like you only really know if it’s running vs expanded after you see how deep C moves…

    good example here in the

    Posted by diabloblanco on 8th of Feb 2023 at 12:10 pm

    good example here in the box

    We are looking for a

    Posted by junkie on 8th of Feb 2023 at 12:07 pm

    We are looking for a pattern similar to November to the first week on December on /ES. That is, a lower low first before making a higher high on Dec 7th. The screenshot is shown below, negating a previous view with a trendline.

    Incidentally, that means that the system trade short will be profitable (the view of wave 4 low in place and the short system trade in place were incompatible).

    That SPX chart has 4200

    Posted by arun on 8th of Feb 2023 at 12:51 pm

    That SPX chart has 4200 written all over it

    good luck with shorts. Shorts next bet is on CPI as if china reopening is going to send CPI to the moon

    I am in the system

    Posted by greggone on 8th of Feb 2023 at 01:08 pm

    I am in the system trade but was trying to judge entering more long positions… ended up buying the touch of the trendline and picking up more on the intraday symmetry break… but also just generally trying to better understand flats as I find them challenging to recognize and grok. Relatively new to EW compared to many here… 

    not trying to second guess the system stuff…

    Excellent analysis, structure and wave

    Posted by limitless on 8th of Feb 2023 at 12:16 pm

    Excellent analysis, structure and wave counts Junkie. Thanks. Very much appreciated.

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