I get the frustration, welcome to trading. I have doubted
and seconded guessed the system trades for longer than I am willing
to admit and exited early at a loss, because of fear. Last
quarter I have moved from frustration and fear to just trusting the
SPY/ES trades. Yes you will take a loss or losses and
maybe on your first trade or two. Learn from me who has been
around for 5+ years? Take the trades as they are posted and
the stats say you will do well. Someone posted a 70% gain last
year. The ES system made over 4200 points last year, at $5/1
point that is $21000 for trading just 1 contract. Sadly I was
in fear and not smart enough to just follow the system better and
for worse. Hang in there and stay the course. I am with
you this current loss is no fun but I know that long term I will be
ahead. Very few systems all 22 has this kind of track record.
I think we are so use to winning trades that a loss seems
like we have been robbed. These stats are VERY good and I am
very thankful to Matt and Steve for all they do.
I can't of course speak to why/when systems should trigger but I
can say in my experience that often the systems are nail
biters as they are taking positions one way when the market seems
to be going the other.. but the stats are the stats and while it
still is always going to sting when there's a big losing trade (and
moreso i'm sure if you don't have a consistent history of personal
wins with the system) over time it's really hard to find a
complaint about something that provides so many winning trades.
Look at the trades from last year and while it was an incredible
year there were a few trades that sucked. That's just how it goes
and getting my head around that and being able to zoom out at the
bigger picture has helped my trading both within the systems and
outside of it.
I won't trade on systems alone, they are a guide, but when a
straight up bull run is staring you in the face from early Jan and
the systems have not taken even one long, and are still sitting on
the sidelines (on the long side), you gotta wonder.
Anyway made my own decisions, the rest is history.
Think of the systems as mutually exclusive to the setups
provided - just last weekend I posted 8 setups that all moved
higher (unusual but happens in a strong trend). The point
here is to diversify and consider employing some capital to setups
that you find appealing and trade them in accordance with YOUR
PLAN. The SPY systems are reversion to mean systems for the
most part not trending systems.
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:29 pm
For those with a day job, those set-ups are hard to execute and
follow. If we were provided entry, stops, and profit taking
levels, then they would work better. Maybe it is just my
lack of skills. But that is why I like the systems.
Less thinking and time. But for many of the experts on
this site those setups probably work very well.
it's one out of 23 reversion to mean systems, it's also on
ES/MES not SPY. Also the trend following systems have been long for
a week weeks like SPY and QQQ
and regarding that trade, again it's a bad trade, it is what it
is, not the end of the word, it happens. That said, the DVDS is one
of the older systems and I'm going to work on a new exit condition
- the stop out exit condition it uses is a 60 length DVDS, which
makes it slow to move, I want to test some faster responding
indicators.
I appreciate everybody's comments and insights, particularly
those who have shared personal results they've tracked using the
systems.
The separate section idea could be helpful, but briefly
revisiting the open trades each newsletter, even if the results are
underwater or fairly static, and adding any reflection (e.g., if
Matt/Steve are starting to suspect the current flavour of market
action could elude system parameters) would be helpful to someone
like me who is learning.
Posted by crossharry on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 05:13 pm
I'm in the UK and going to bed soon, so would appreciate a
confirmation - apologies if I've missed the message on the board -
did the ES system short trade officially stop out today? I don't
see anything on email. Thanks in advance...
Posted by James_Roe on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 07:14 pm
Yeah, the ES system doesn't confirm a trade signal until the
close of the futures market, the new candle for tomorrow is already
open, so our indicator is showing the trade closing out, but it
won't be confirmed until tomorrow at 5 PM EST.
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:56 pm
If you consider the KISS charts as a system (I do), then they
have caught the vast majority of the bull run. The other systems
look for high probability reversion to mean opportunities, for the
most part. That's why you're not seeing a lot of bullish system
trades outside of the KISS system...which has nailed it.
I see many system comments
The systems returned thousands of points in the past year. ...
Posted by vasiboy on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:26 pm
I see many system comments here today
My question is, why haven't any of the other systems taken short positions?
Based on last year the systems would have added to their shorts by now.
Also, other the the KISS, why have no long trades triggered on pullbacks?
Surely having so many systems one should have triggered, I think the bear long even triggered last year.
It is frustrating to watch potential trades go by, and worse still having a loser so close to signing up here.
I get the frustration, welcome
Posted by bk1976 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:42 pm
I get the frustration, welcome to trading. I have doubted and seconded guessed the system trades for longer than I am willing to admit and exited early at a loss, because of fear. Last quarter I have moved from frustration and fear to just trusting the SPY/ES trades. Yes you will take a loss or losses and maybe on your first trade or two. Learn from me who has been around for 5+ years? Take the trades as they are posted and the stats say you will do well. Someone posted a 70% gain last year. The ES system made over 4200 points last year, at $5/1 point that is $21000 for trading just 1 contract. Sadly I was in fear and not smart enough to just follow the system better and for worse. Hang in there and stay the course. I am with you this current loss is no fun but I know that long term I will be ahead. Very few systems all 22 has this kind of track record. I think we are so use to winning trades that a loss seems like we have been robbed. These stats are VERY good and I am very thankful to Matt and Steve for all they do.
I can't of course speak
Posted by greggone on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:36 pm
I can't of course speak to why/when systems should trigger but I can say in my experience that often the systems are nail biters as they are taking positions one way when the market seems to be going the other.. but the stats are the stats and while it still is always going to sting when there's a big losing trade (and moreso i'm sure if you don't have a consistent history of personal wins with the system) over time it's really hard to find a complaint about something that provides so many winning trades. Look at the trades from last year and while it was an incredible year there were a few trades that sucked. That's just how it goes and getting my head around that and being able to zoom out at the bigger picture has helped my trading both within the systems and outside of it.
I won't trade on systems
Posted by vasiboy on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:45 pm
I won't trade on systems alone, they are a guide, but when a straight up bull run is staring you in the face from early Jan and the systems have not taken even one long, and are still sitting on the sidelines (on the long side), you gotta wonder.
Anyway made my own decisions, the rest is history.
Think of the systems as
Posted by steve on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:59 pm
Think of the systems as mutually exclusive to the setups provided - just last weekend I posted 8 setups that all moved higher (unusual but happens in a strong trend). The point here is to diversify and consider employing some capital to setups that you find appealing and trade them in accordance with YOUR PLAN. The SPY systems are reversion to mean systems for the most part not trending systems.
For those with a day
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:29 pm
For those with a day job, those set-ups are hard to execute and follow. If we were provided entry, stops, and profit taking levels, then they would work better. Maybe it is just my lack of skills. But that is why I like the systems. Less thinking and time. But for many of the experts on this site those setups probably work very well.
it's one out of 23
Posted by matt on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:02 pm
it's one out of 23 reversion to mean systems, it's also on ES/MES not SPY. Also the trend following systems have been long for a week weeks like SPY and QQQ
and regarding that trade, again it's a bad trade, it is what it is, not the end of the word, it happens. That said, the DVDS is one of the older systems and I'm going to work on a new exit condition - the stop out exit condition it uses is a 60 length DVDS, which makes it slow to move, I want to test some faster responding indicators.
I appreciate everybody's comments and
Posted by mschwand on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:51 pm
I appreciate everybody's comments and insights, particularly those who have shared personal results they've tracked using the systems.
The separate section idea could be helpful, but briefly revisiting the open trades each newsletter, even if the results are underwater or fairly static, and adding any reflection (e.g., if Matt/Steve are starting to suspect the current flavour of market action could elude system parameters) would be helpful to someone like me who is learning.
Hope your symptoms resolve soon, Matt!
The overall backdrop of the
Posted by steverobin on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 05:37 pm
The overall backdrop of the market dictates the short term.
I'm in the UK and
Posted by crossharry on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 05:13 pm
I'm in the UK and going to bed soon, so would appreciate a confirmation - apologies if I've missed the message on the board - did the ES system short trade officially stop out today? I don't see anything on email. Thanks in advance...
System trade must still be
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 06:41 pm
System trade must still be open. I didn’t see any notice go out. Or did it close?
It's still open, it will
Posted by James_Roe on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 06:57 pm
It's still open, it will currently close tomorrow though, honestly doubt even a monster down day would cause it to hold at this point.
Hi James, by tomrrow you
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 07:03 pm
Hi James, by tomrrow you meant tomrrow afternoon market close?
Thanks. Really appeciate everyone's effort.
Yeah, the ES system doesn't
Posted by James_Roe on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 07:14 pm
Yeah, the ES system doesn't confirm a trade signal until the close of the futures market, the new candle for tomorrow is already open, so our indicator is showing the trade closing out, but it won't be confirmed until tomorrow at 5 PM EST.
No emails went out and
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 06:45 pm
No emails went out and the market did drop after the close. So maybe by 4 it did not signal a close.
no
Posted by steverobin on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 05:36 pm
no
If you consider the KISS
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:56 pm
If you consider the KISS charts as a system (I do), then they have caught the vast majority of the bull run. The other systems look for high probability reversion to mean opportunities, for the most part. That's why you're not seeing a lot of bullish system trades outside of the KISS system...which has nailed it.
Playing hookie after first half
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 03:58 pm
Playing hookie after first half today.
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:02 pm
your trajectory looks optimistically bearish..
Posted by greggone on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 04:08 pm
your trajectory looks optimistically bearish..
Well, I didn't stop in
Posted by DigiNomad on 2nd of Feb 2023 at 09:29 pm
Well, I didn't stop in the trees on purpose. Just making lemonade out of lemons and enjoying the moment. So yeah, optimistically bearish fits the bill