this chart from Bloomber plots the CPI and the Fed Underlying
Inflation in blue. The underlying inflation tends to lead as you
can see, dropping hard first in 2008, then rebounding first, then
starting to decline first in 2019 before CPI. Currently the
underlying inflation has been dropping but CPI has not - so could
we see the CPI start to follow this and dip? maybe this
time?
when I saw this chart last night I had a pretty strong
conviction that it would the CPI would come down this morning based
on that divergence between the underlying - but man 100 points on a
1 min candle, just crazy
Matt, I took some SPY calls at the close yesterday. Now what? Is
this the wave C scenario starting to unfold ? Definitely taking
some chips off at the close but curious on your thoughts.
first off nice!! secondly, you don't have to be an all or
nothing trader - you could sell 1/2 then keep 1/2 or sell 2/3 (thus
locking in massive gains) and keep a 1/3 as a running in case that
C scenario plays out - your choice
I just posted that as well. No idea on timing, I think the most
pain would be caused to just keep it up somehow today or possibly
longer. I'll play whatever Oz gives when it is there.
NICE!!!! I had a good good feeling about that which is why I
posted that chart, took some MES before that but my god that quick
spike came within 2 points of hitting my stop, whew
That was insane, just happy it worked out. Great call on that
inflation chart. I went long yesterday at the close as I doubted a
straight move down after so much of the same has been discussed
inflaiton wise over and over. Perfect trap. Nasty market.
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CPI maybe comes in better than expected?
Posted by matt on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:17 am
this chart from Bloomber plots the CPI and the Fed Underlying Inflation in blue. The underlying inflation tends to lead as you can see, dropping hard first in 2008, then rebounding first, then starting to decline first in 2019 before CPI. Currently the underlying inflation has been dropping but CPI has not - so could we see the CPI start to follow this and dip? maybe this time?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-07/inflation-optimism-reasons-add-up-for-cheer-ahead-of-cpi-release
when I saw this chart
Posted by matt on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:37 am
when I saw this chart last night I had a pretty strong conviction that it would the CPI would come down this morning based on that divergence between the underlying - but man 100 points on a 1 min candle, just crazy
Timely chart, that was fun!
Posted by cozz101 on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:52 am
Timely chart, that was fun!
if you went long before
Posted by matt on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:54 am
if you went long before the CPI - take the day off
Ha, sold half, watching for
Posted by cozz101 on 10th of Nov 2022 at 09:28 am
Ha, sold half, watching for a gap and go day; hope we get one.
Absolutely - enjoy the beach
Posted by steve on 10th of Nov 2022 at 09:04 am
Absolutely - enjoy the beach
Matt, I took some SPY
Posted by DK on 10th of Nov 2022 at 09:00 am
Matt, I took some SPY calls at the close yesterday. Now what? Is this the wave C scenario starting to unfold ? Definitely taking some chips off at the close but curious on your thoughts.
first off nice!! secondly, you
Posted by matt on 10th of Nov 2022 at 09:01 am
first off nice!! secondly, you don't have to be an all or nothing trader - you could sell 1/2 then keep 1/2 or sell 2/3 (thus locking in massive gains) and keep a 1/3 as a running in case that C scenario plays out - your choice
Thx Matt, was going to
Posted by DK on 10th of Nov 2022 at 09:03 am
Thx Matt, was going to sell 2/3 and appreciate you responding man. You guys are great.
There is a large gap
Posted by kobie on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:40 am
There is a large gap on my futures chart.....will need to get visited soon....
I just posted that as
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:45 am
I just posted that as well. No idea on timing, I think the most pain would be caused to just keep it up somehow today or possibly longer. I'll play whatever Oz gives when it is there.
NICE!!!! I had a good
Posted by matt on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:31 am
NICE!!!! I had a good good feeling about that which is why I posted that chart, took some MES before that but my god that quick spike came within 2 points of hitting my stop, whew
god this stuff moves so
Posted by matt on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:33 am
god this stuff moves so fast!
That was insane, just happy
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 10th of Nov 2022 at 08:37 am
That was insane, just happy it worked out. Great call on that inflation chart. I went long yesterday at the close as I doubted a straight move down after so much of the same has been discussed inflaiton wise over and over. Perfect trap. Nasty market.