again make sure to read over my post from Sept - and again one
of my comments regarding the systems, when starting them for the
first time, because you don't know how that first trade will go
(you might start off with a string of 6 winners in a row, or the
pucker hard to stomach trade), always start very small and
conservative with your first trades instead of swinging for the
fences - that helps with emotion, and over time after you get a
handful under your belt and some profits hopefully, you can start
to increase size
The other thing I can share is historical max draw down for the
current system - for the QE BTS for SPY the max historical draw
down was about 10%, that occurred in April 2020 when the system
entered a short and was down about 10% at the max draw down - the
first entry ended up being a small loser while the 2nd two were
winners - but overall that 1st entry took a 10% draw down. One idea
is to use a hard stop just wider than that max historical draw down
etc. Here's an image of that trade
Thanks Matt. I read the Sept 28 post on stops. I am emotionless.
Infact I am not trading. I just wanted to know what the
procedure is, the one you use to close the position and calculate
profit and loss, without using hindsight. I am finding out it is
subjective and not suggested by the trading system. That makes me
wonder what makes you declare a position closed (obviously in real
time to avoid the hindsight issue). Thanks again.
sounds like you have a plan and a disciplined mind!
Anyway, that writeup I posted a while back is a good read and
I'll probably email that out today for others.
I always have concerns when people first try the systems - by
odds they could be starting where there is a streak of 9 winners in
a row, or they could be starting at a time when the rare loser
comes along. we'll see - again my guess would be that the systems
will cover on a wave B pullback. Currently we appear to be in wave
3 of A, which means we could have small iv and v to go before we
have the B. short term we have the 50 day MA just above and the
daily ATR to monitor as next resistance areas
So as far as this move up in the market, assuming this is a wave
A, we will eventually get a wave B pullback and that's where these
systems would cover is on that wave B pullback
kind of like something like this. 50 day MA is just above, we'll
see if that acts as place for the SPX to pause or not
in addition to the 50 day MA, we have the daily ATR just above
as well. We have some A's showing up on lower time frames. That
said, price broke through the ATR resistance yesterday on 130 min
and 65 min, which was bullish as a breakout and confirms some sort
of wave 3, my guess would be 3 of C
LOL that's your report card not mine - I don't know how you got
the awesome grades you did with those wild parties you told me
about, some crazy times, AND you had a hard curriculum unlike most
athletes who choose pretty easy classes and major
Yep a lot of A's here on many time frames
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again make sure to read
ES systems short
Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 11:50 am
again make sure to read over my post from Sept - and again one of my comments regarding the systems, when starting them for the first time, because you don't know how that first trade will go (you might start off with a string of 6 winners in a row, or the pucker hard to stomach trade), always start very small and conservative with your first trades instead of swinging for the fences - that helps with emotion, and over time after you get a handful under your belt and some profits hopefully, you can start to increase size
https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/377890/
The other thing I can share is historical max draw down for the current system - for the QE BTS for SPY the max historical draw down was about 10%, that occurred in April 2020 when the system entered a short and was down about 10% at the max draw down - the first entry ended up being a small loser while the 2nd two were winners - but overall that 1st entry took a 10% draw down. One idea is to use a hard stop just wider than that max historical draw down etc. Here's an image of that trade
Thanks Matt. I read the
Posted by vicky on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:18 pm
Thanks Matt. I read the Sept 28 post on stops. I am emotionless. Infact I am not trading. I just wanted to know what the procedure is, the one you use to close the position and calculate profit and loss, without using hindsight. I am finding out it is subjective and not suggested by the trading system. That makes me wonder what makes you declare a position closed (obviously in real time to avoid the hindsight issue). Thanks again.
sounds like you have a
Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:47 pm
sounds like you have a plan and a disciplined mind! Anyway, that writeup I posted a while back is a good read and I'll probably email that out today for others.
I always have concerns when people first try the systems - by odds they could be starting where there is a streak of 9 winners in a row, or they could be starting at a time when the rare loser comes along. we'll see - again my guess would be that the systems will cover on a wave B pullback. Currently we appear to be in wave 3 of A, which means we could have small iv and v to go before we have the B. short term we have the 50 day MA just above and the daily ATR to monitor as next resistance areas
Very helpful, thanks Matt
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 25th of Oct 2022 at 01:08 pm
Very helpful, thanks Matt
There is no stop loss
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:27 pm
There is no stop loss in my opinion. The system just waits for a reversion and then eventually exits. Could be a loss or win.
Are you seeing 3rd entries
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:03 pm
Are you seeing 3rd entries for today?
2nd for SPY, 3rd for
Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:29 pm
2nd for SPY, 3rd for ES
So as far as this move up in the market, assuming this is a wave A, we will eventually get a wave B pullback and that's where these systems would cover is on that wave B pullback
kind of like something like this. 50 day MA is just above, we'll see if that acts as place for the SPX to pause or not
in addition to the 50
Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:43 pm
in addition to the 50 day MA, we have the daily ATR just above as well. We have some A's showing up on lower time frames. That said, price broke through the ATR resistance yesterday on 130 min and 65 min, which was bullish as a breakout and confirms some sort of wave 3, my guess would be 3 of C
I have so many A's
Posted by steve on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:46 pm
I have so many A's on the charts it looks like Matt's College Report Card
LOL that's your report card
Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:49 pm
LOL that's your report card not mine - I don't know how you got the awesome grades you did with those wild parties you told me about, some crazy times, AND you had a hard curriculum unlike most athletes who choose pretty easy classes and major
Yep a lot of A's here on many time frames