again make sure to read

    ES systems short

    Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 11:50 am

    again make sure to read over my post from Sept - and again one of my comments regarding the systems, when starting them for the first time, because you don't know how that first trade will go (you might start off with a string of 6 winners in a row, or the pucker hard to stomach trade), always start very small and conservative with your first trades instead of swinging for the fences - that helps with emotion, and over time after you get a handful under your belt and some profits hopefully, you can start to increase size 

    https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/377890/ 

    The other thing I can share is historical max draw down for the current system - for the QE BTS for SPY the max historical draw down was about 10%, that occurred in April 2020 when the system entered a short and was down about 10% at the max draw down - the first entry ended up being a small loser while the 2nd two were winners - but overall that 1st entry took a 10% draw down. One idea is to use a hard stop just wider than that max historical draw down etc. Here's an image of that trade

    Thanks Matt. I read the

    Posted by vicky on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:18 pm

    Thanks Matt. I read the Sept 28 post on stops. I am emotionless. Infact I am not trading.  I just wanted to know what the procedure is, the one you use to close the position and calculate profit and loss, without using hindsight. I am finding out it is subjective and not suggested by the trading system. That makes me wonder what makes you declare a position closed (obviously in real time to avoid the hindsight issue). Thanks again. 

    sounds like you have a

    Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:47 pm

    sounds like you have a plan and a disciplined mind!  Anyway, that writeup I posted a while back is a good read and I'll probably email that out today for others. 

    I always have concerns when people first try the systems - by odds they could be starting where there is a streak of 9 winners in a row, or they could be starting at a time when the rare loser comes along. we'll see - again my guess would be that the systems will cover on a wave B pullback. Currently we appear to be in wave 3 of A, which means we could have small iv and v to go before we have the B. short term we have the 50 day MA just above and the daily ATR to monitor as next resistance areas

    Very helpful, thanks Matt

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 25th of Oct 2022 at 01:08 pm

    Very helpful, thanks Matt

    There is no stop loss

    Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:27 pm

    There is no stop loss in my opinion.     The system just waits for a reversion and then eventually exits. Could be a loss or win.  

    Are you seeing 3rd entries

    Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:03 pm

    Are you seeing 3rd entries for today? 

    2nd for SPY, 3rd for

    Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:29 pm

    2nd for SPY, 3rd for ES

    So as far as this move up in the market, assuming this is a wave A, we will eventually get a wave B pullback and that's where these systems would cover is on that wave B pullback

    kind of like something like this. 50 day MA is just above, we'll see if that acts as place for the SPX to pause or not

    in addition to the 50

    Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:43 pm

    in addition to the 50 day MA, we have the daily ATR just above as well. We have some A's showing up on lower time frames. That said, price broke through the ATR resistance yesterday on 130 min and 65 min, which was bullish as a breakout and confirms some sort of wave 3, my guess would be 3 of C

    I have so many A's

    Posted by steve on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:46 pm

    I have so many A's on the charts it looks like Matt's College Report Card 

    LOL that's your report card

    Posted by matt on 25th of Oct 2022 at 12:49 pm

    LOL that's your report card not mine - I don't know how you got the awesome grades you did with those wild parties you told me about, some crazy times, AND you had a hard curriculum unlike most athletes who choose pretty easy classes and major

    Yep a lot of A's here on many time frames

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