In Thursday's newsletter and again on Friday, I stated that the
SPX 3613 low was NOT the bottom of the current decline since it was
formed with 3 small waves off the SPX 3736 bounce. Late
Friday, that 3613 level was decisively broken and this structure
has yet to complete. From here, you could see a direct
acceleration down (more forced selling) if bulls fail to step in
during the first trading day of the month. IF bulls are able
to bounce then will be watching for a potential ending diagonal to
complete the wave down that began from SPX 4119 in early September
but more selling after such a rally is expected.
Correct...black swan type . Understand even if ED forms and
rally follows that would be wave 4 then PLUNGE in Wave 5. So Monday
we shall see what unfolds. There is a cycle due and failed
cycles lead to plunges (notice 3 weeks down and 1 week up bounces
of late). Let me repeat, best to respect the trend until
evidence changes - remain flexible and monitor level to level.
Needless to say, Bears are in control
The analog would have a multiweek rally from here which would
fail in a waterfall manner
Its an almost identical match.
I would make a chart of 2008 but Stockcharts took away the
start\end date function in the period tab when they added
those other nonsensical periods. Seems like a
regression not an improvement.
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SPX Current Views
Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 12:52 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- note the prevailing channels
$SPX - Chart Link
$SPX - Chart Link
In Thursday's newsletter and again on Friday, I stated that the SPX 3613 low was NOT the bottom of the current decline since it was formed with 3 small waves off the SPX 3736 bounce. Late Friday, that 3613 level was decisively broken and this structure has yet to complete. From here, you could see a direct acceleration down (more forced selling) if bulls fail to step in during the first trading day of the month. IF bulls are able to bounce then will be watching for a potential ending diagonal to complete the wave down that began from SPX 4119 in early September but more selling after such a rally is expected.
Steve, if price accelerates down
Posted by mirhamedali on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:31 pm
Steve, if price accelerates down immediately on Monday then it becomes impulsive to the downside and the ED is off the table right?
If it becomes impulsive then it may bust through all the divergences. That may trigger a waterfall decline.
This could be a really nasty three of three of three down.
Or.... This could only still just be a 1-2 which means even more bearish to the downside. Very interesting two weeks ahead of us.
Jobs numbers on Friday could be fireworks if numbers are strong. Based on jobless clsikes they may be strong
Correct...black swan type . Understand
Posted by steve on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:40 pm
Correct...black swan type . Understand even if ED forms and rally follows that would be wave 4 then PLUNGE in Wave 5. So Monday we shall see what unfolds. There is a cycle due and failed cycles lead to plunges (notice 3 weeks down and 1 week up bounces of late). Let me repeat, best to respect the trend until evidence changes - remain flexible and monitor level to level. Needless to say, Bears are in control
Steve, would this morning's action
Posted by greggone on 3rd of Oct 2022 at 10:29 am
Steve, would this morning's action already negate an ED?
Interesting on failed cycles. Didn’t
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 1st of Oct 2022 at 09:53 pm
Interesting on failed cycles. Didn’t know that. Thanks for sharing as to potential plunge.
Chris Ciovaccio video is making
Posted by arun on 1st of Oct 2022 at 01:04 pm
Chris Ciovaccio video is making comparisons to 2008 water fall decline which echoes your concern of accelerated selling.
The analog would have a
Posted by roger on 1st of Oct 2022 at 02:31 pm
The analog would have a multiweek rally from here which would fail in a waterfall manner
Its an almost identical match.
I would make a chart of 2008 but Stockcharts took away the start\end date function in the period tab when they added those other nonsensical periods. Seems like a regression not an improvement.