My advice here for newbies.  1.  Follow the systems.  They have a great track record and are short.  Ignore all the other chatter and posts.  The stats say you will come out ahead.  That is your short term strategy.   2.  If you want to add a intermediate to long term strategy,  then buy and hold inverse ETFs that are short the market.  Our guys tell us this is a bear market.   Buy only the amount at which you can withstand a 20% to 25% counter trend rally and not lose sleep at night.  Just hold these all the way through.  Just one guys opinion.  

    The only thing I would

    Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Sep 2022 at 12:21 am

    The only thing I would potentially disagree with here is the "buy and hold leveraged short ETF's part. Short 1x ETF maybe, leveraged ETF...bad idea...for many reasons.  Basically, when dealing with derivatives (or funds that are derivative based), you don't want to be on the side that pays the premium. So, if  you want to express a short in the medium to long term, you want a chart that goes from top left to bottom left, not bottom right to top right. In the very short term, leveraged short ETF's are great.  

    Digi - As derivatives decay

    Posted by auni on 16th of Sep 2022 at 11:35 am

    Digi - As derivatives decay in price over time, especially 3x, Would a longer term short position strategy, in a leveraged ETF,  be to short the long 2x ETF?

    For example:  You want to hold a long term position in SDS(2x short).  Would it be better to short SSO(2x long)?  Because, they both decay over the long term.

    Auni, yes, I think that's

    Posted by DigiNomad on 16th of Sep 2022 at 01:40 pm

    Auni, yes, I think that's correct but don't hold me to it 100% because I create my own derivative instruments instead of using the ETF's. I would have to know more about the specific instruments that underlie the funds in questions.  Your strategy appears to take advantage of both the direction you're predicting and option decay....which is potentially ideal.

    Is your name Hawaiian? I lived on Oahu for 12 years. Don't know Auni specifically but it sounds Hawaiian. 

    Digi, It means Golden Eye.  It

    Posted by auni on 16th of Sep 2022 at 02:21 pm

    Digi,

    It means Golden Eye.  It is a made up name I've used on forums for a long time.  I'm just an old white guy.  Ha!

    I used to trade gold/silver options with my dad when I was in college.  It was during the Bunker Hunt days when they cornered the silver market in the '70s and silver went to $50.  It was in the Aden sister era.

    After college I took a year off and wrote a program (machine language) that down loaded stock date from a modem connection and could create a daily Horsey Chart rather than having to wait for the monthly Horsey stock charts book to be sent to you from M. C.Horsey Co. via the mail.  Anyone remember Horsey stock charts?

    13 years ago my dad passed and I lost interest in daily trading.  Also lost interest in precious metals as I always believed the markets were highly manipulated... we almost never were long, we used options to short the metals.

    Take care,

    Au-n-i

    I've thought about that too.

    Posted by mastermind on 16th of Sep 2022 at 11:36 am

    I've thought about that too.

    Do that but over time

    Posted by matt on 15th of Sep 2022 at 03:32 pm

    Do that but over time you should also try and develop a system that fits your personal risk tolerance and goals. That takes time and experimentation and you can pick and choose things you see from us and others

    As far as the systems - one big advantage they have other most average traders is their set discipline and the way they enter trades. The way the enter positions, SPY for 1st entry, SSO for 2nd, UPRO for 3rd, and other systems can offset others - it's sort of like how a professional gambler who actually makes money at the casino varies and changes his bets in order to maximize his profits and recover from losers. 

    too many people (most) just buy or short positions will nilly, with no methodology for managing position sizes, varying them, and money management. It's like: I'll buy 100 TSLA, here, I'll short 50 MSFT there - it's shoot from the hip stuff. 

    money management and how you position your sizes and vary them is just as important as picking good trades from the charts. 

    this why even average systems will tend to do better than a trader who is outstanding at charts but is emotional and doesn't have a strategy for his position sizes - systems with their set methodical rules makes a big difference 

    That couldn't have been said

    Posted by cozz101 on 15th of Sep 2022 at 03:42 pm

    That couldn't have been said better, Matt! I learned that after making mistakes early on and it's been the number one most valuable thing for my trading. Position sizing and knowing the goal for the trade prior to entering it. (including where you will exit if it goes against you). 

    On the systems, I'm holding half my short position and just sold the other half at the bottom of this short term wedge that was pointed out on the blog...happy camper!

    That’s me - would love

    Posted by anjali25 on 15th of Sep 2022 at 03:40 pm

    That’s me - would love some advice on position sizing and how to do it without being “Willy hilly”

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