and again you guys can so what fits your style. Clearly we got
the mean reversion today in a big way. Price also closed right on
the uptrend line on the SPX, so we could get an oversold bounce of
this year. The system is not closing but we could potentially see a
bounce off that area and if it would make you feel better to lock
something in then do so
here's the QE 3 - again the version where the momo is turned off
on the right you can see that it closed out. The one we are using,
on the left continues to hold. One could split the difference and
exit 1/2 if they chose
how the market gods work - because I elected not to sell 1/2
today, means we'll probably see 50 point bounce tomorrow LOL
- that's how murphy's' law for you
True, but would've been very tough to sit through that this
morning BEFORE the CPI was released! Just saying, but yes, would've
been nice. Thanks Matt!
ugh nope! disagree - like 25 -30 ES points that were overnight?
a 1st entry that took no draw down during the cash market - that's
$1500 on ES and $150 on 1 MES, $75 on $10K of SPY come on man
a 1st entry short at yesterday's close was about as perfect as
you can get
wasn't some pucker trade that was in a 3rd entry or
something
I had this typed up about 30 min ago to cover 1/2 of the short
and is sitting in cue waiting to be emailed out - kinda wishing I
had sent that out. Anyway I covered everything in great detailed
regardless guys
Hello Everyone, I'm electing
to cover 1/2 of the open ES short that was taken yesterday on the
QE BTS.
again, as I discussed already the system is not going to exit,
it's going to hold. So you can choose to either exit 1/2 to lock in
some nice gains since we achieved the 1st target already of a
reversion to mean pullback, or you can just stay short and hold
until the system covers.
for the website we'll cover
1/2 and keep the other 1/2 open until the system covers. Too
early to say which approach will make the most i.e. just sticking
with the system or covering 1/2 here and the other 1/2 where the
system actually exits
QE Short ES Trade and trade details
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 10:36 am
here's an image showing the currently short trade on ES.
as I suspected the system is NOT looking to exit because the momo trending indicator is red - see the left chart.
If I turn that momo condition off the system would exit today by the simple mean reversion - to the right.
I've included the statistics to both below the chart. The max draw down is the same for both
what I may do today is cover 1/2 and leave 1/2
Hi Matt, did you decide
Posted by sim2009 on 13th of Sep 2022 at 06:59 pm
Hi Matt, did you decide to cover half of the QE short ES trade tonight? Thanks.
see the yellow stick note
Posted by bk1976 on 13th of Sep 2022 at 07:02 pm
see the yellow stick note above QE Short ES trade
and again you guys can
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 07:38 pm
and again you guys can so what fits your style. Clearly we got the mean reversion today in a big way. Price also closed right on the uptrend line on the SPX, so we could get an oversold bounce of this year. The system is not closing but we could potentially see a bounce off that area and if it would make you feel better to lock something in then do so
here's the QE 3 -
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 07:47 pm
here's the QE 3 - again the version where the momo is turned off on the right you can see that it closed out. The one we are using, on the left continues to hold. One could split the difference and exit 1/2 if they chose
how the market gods work
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 07:51 pm
how the market gods work - because I elected not to sell 1/2 today, means we'll probably see 50 point bounce tomorrow LOL - that's how murphy's' law for you
one ES contract taken yesterday
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 03:46 pm
one ES contract taken yesterday would be up near $9300
Gonna get my futures permissions
Posted by fredsaid on 13th of Sep 2022 at 04:00 pm
Gonna get my futures permissions today. Holding my SpY Nov 405-380 and lots more short Mar.
True, but would've been very
Posted by rfa300 on 13th of Sep 2022 at 03:56 pm
True, but would've been very tough to sit through that this morning BEFORE the CPI was released! Just saying, but yes, would've been nice. Thanks Matt!
ugh nope! disagree - like
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm
ugh nope! disagree - like 25 -30 ES points that were overnight? a 1st entry that took no draw down during the cash market - that's $1500 on ES and $150 on 1 MES, $75 on $10K of SPY come on man
a 1st entry short at yesterday's close was about as perfect as you can get
wasn't some pucker trade that was in a 3rd entry or something
That's how the market works
Posted by steve on 13th of Sep 2022 at 03:57 pm
That's how the market works - it's not going to make it easy to enter or exit
I was heavily short the
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of Sep 2022 at 03:59 pm
I was heavily short the 421 level going into the print this morning. Sweating bullets until the announcement.
I had this typed up
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:18 pm
I had this typed up about 30 min ago to cover 1/2 of the short and is sitting in cue waiting to be emailed out - kinda wishing I had sent that out. Anyway I covered everything in great detailed regardless guys
Hello Everyone, I'm electing to cover 1/2 of the open ES short that was taken yesterday on the QE BTS.
again, as I discussed already the system is not going to exit, it's going to hold. So you can choose to either exit 1/2 to lock in some nice gains since we achieved the 1st target already of a reversion to mean pullback, or you can just stay short and hold until the system covers.
for the website we'll cover 1/2 and keep the other 1/2 open until the system covers. Too early to say which approach will make the most i.e. just sticking with the system or covering 1/2 here and the other 1/2 where the system actually exits
You gave us plenty of
Posted by timebandit on 13th of Sep 2022 at 12:21 pm
You gave us plenty of heads up so we could make our own decisions, both here and via email
I added that last QE
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 10:51 am
I added that last QE short update as Sticky so that you guys can reference it, didn't want it to get buried