So what kind of data are we looking at to predict that we are
going to drop 1000 points....is there is any NHNL divergence like
last year, any wide ribbons etc ? I am not saying its not going to
happen but it is definitely not a slam dunk. Do you have the guts
to sell all your portfolio and go short and not cover until 1000
points down or even 600 points down ? I definitely dont see
myself doing that. I see some perma bears calling for 1800 SPX.
just like kayKim permabull calling for SPX 22000 by 2030.
Anyways not going to talk further on this. My time is way more
valuable than enter into debates on forums
Arun..trade your plan. Did you believe in June when I projected
4230? Respect the trend until evidence changes. You won't
know until much later any specific reason. Listen to ALL my
comments last night. Have a great weekend
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:24 pm
I am 100% short after today, but it's a buffered short
(breakevens above 61.8%). I don't have to worry about the magnitude
of the pullback...I just need a pause or a crash. Either
would be fine. Pullback of 320 - 400 looks more likely to me, but I
think it will end up being a big B wave in even bigger ABC before
longer move down to new lows...and the turn will actually come at
the 78.6% fib. The only way I get 800 - 1000 currently is measuring
the bottom of the channel.....but I'm sure Steve had some logic in
play.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:26 pm
They just jinxed me a bit by mentioning the 61.8% as likely
target on Fast Money. In the same conversation they mentioned that
the Fed is likely to want to keep things calm until after the
midterms....which I totally agree with. Polls are already much
better for the Dems after this market move.
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So what kind of data
Completely roasted on all the short I am holding as ...
Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:05 pm
So what kind of data are we looking at to predict that we are going to drop 1000 points....is there is any NHNL divergence like last year, any wide ribbons etc ? I am not saying its not going to happen but it is definitely not a slam dunk. Do you have the guts to sell all your portfolio and go short and not cover until 1000 points down or even 600 points down ? I definitely dont see myself doing that. I see some perma bears calling for 1800 SPX. just like kayKim permabull calling for SPX 22000 by 2030.
Anyways not going to talk further on this. My time is way more valuable than enter into debates on forums
Arun..trade your plan. Did you
Posted by steve on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:27 pm
Arun..trade your plan. Did you believe in June when I projected 4230? Respect the trend until evidence changes. You won't know until much later any specific reason. Listen to ALL my comments last night. Have a great weekend
You have a great weekend
Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 06:29 pm
You have a great weekend as well Steve. Thanks for all the time and hard work ðŸ™
I am 100% short after
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:24 pm
I am 100% short after today, but it's a buffered short (breakevens above 61.8%). I don't have to worry about the magnitude of the pullback...I just need a pause or a crash. Either would be fine. Pullback of 320 - 400 looks more likely to me, but I think it will end up being a big B wave in even bigger ABC before longer move down to new lows...and the turn will actually come at the 78.6% fib. The only way I get 800 - 1000 currently is measuring the bottom of the channel.....but I'm sure Steve had some logic in play.
They just jinxed me a
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:26 pm
They just jinxed me a bit by mentioning the 61.8% as likely target on Fast Money. In the same conversation they mentioned that the Fed is likely to want to keep things calm until after the midterms....which I totally agree with. Polls are already much better for the Dems after this market move.