I think sometimes we hear what we want to hear.  When Steve posted about a 900-1000 point drop in the S&P,  I am sure some of us loaded up on shorts.  He adjusted that comment a little later saying that there could be a secondary high (which indeed came today).   Steve has done an amazing job with mapping the market.   However, I think for the less experienced trader or those with a tendency to let emotions get the best of them, it is best to just follow Matt's signals.  Why?  Because they provide objective entries and exits.  Just discipline ourselves to follow them and keep our thinking out of it.   But don't try to out think the systems either.  Matt has spent a tremendous amount of time developing them.  Why think we are smarter than it is?   The one MES trade he mentioned provided a year's worth of trading income for many with a rather smooth ride up.  That's just some advice from someone that has a tendency to let emotions creep in or interpret comments towards my bias to implement trades.  For some of the advanced traders in the room,  they can also play the other trades, market comments, etc.  Face it - they are much better at it.   But for some of us, just stick to the system!  And don't overtrade or want to have action all the time.  Be patient and wait for the trades.  Have a good weekend all.  

    Great advice ! Steve and

    Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:43 pm

    Great advice ! Steve and Matt have been very awesome in Guiding to stay long - I know how many times Steve kept repeating that from July … I will pay more attention to the systems - there are so many that it gets confusing …

    I actually sold some long standing longs at losses yesterday saying that with a 500-1000 point drop the 60% losses on them will become 90% - of course they are up 5-6% today LOL … but some which I didn’t sell acted as the long hedge to my net short positions ….

    Yes I agree, Comments like

    Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:32 pm

    Yes I agree, Comments like that 900-1000 point drops are distracting and quite honestly unnecessary. Who cares if that happens or not ? The best profits in investing are made when we dodge a major downturn like last 10 months. Any "predictions" from here have to be objective. Last year, Matt and Steve laid out amazing grounds like NAHL / wide ribbons on monthly etc. Not even one analyst out there noted these. But now we dont have any objective signs like that to be able to predict. 

    I don’t think it’s unnecessary-

    Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:50 pm

    I don’t think it’s unnecessary- I wasn’t a sub then but for the short from 4637 to 3637 as  predicted then it could be played short - additionally could be used to protect portfolio as well- those growth stock were down around 30-40% for me at around 4637 - would have still been a loss but a much smaller one than the 70% down that they reached in June at 3637

    so there is huge value in knowing that is a possibility again !!!

    I know that I stayed exclusively long till 4125 as Steve kept repeating that it is not time yet and we reached that consolidation zone which he had predicted in June as a minimum

    So what kind of data

    Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:05 pm

    So what kind of data are we looking at to predict that we are going to drop 1000 points....is there is any NHNL divergence like last year, any wide ribbons etc ? I am not saying its not going to happen but it is definitely not a slam dunk. Do you have the guts to sell all your portfolio and go short and not cover until 1000 points down  or even 600 points down ? I definitely dont see myself doing that. I see some perma bears calling for 1800 SPX. just like kayKim permabull calling for SPX 22000 by 2030. 

    Anyways not going to talk further on this. My time is way more valuable than enter into debates on forums

    Arun..trade your plan. Did you

    Posted by steve on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:27 pm

    Arun..trade your plan. Did you believe in June when I projected 4230?  Respect the trend until evidence changes. You won't know until much later any specific reason. Listen to ALL my comments last night. Have a great weekend 

    You have a great weekend

    Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 06:29 pm

    You have a great weekend as well Steve. Thanks for all the time and hard work ðŸ™

    I am 100% short after

    Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:24 pm

    I am 100% short after today, but it's a buffered short (breakevens above 61.8%). I don't have to worry about the magnitude of the pullback...I just need  a pause or a crash. Either would be fine. Pullback of 320 - 400 looks more likely to me, but I think it will end up being a big B wave in even bigger ABC before longer move down to new lows...and the turn will actually come at the 78.6% fib. The only way I get 800 - 1000 currently is measuring the bottom of the channel.....but I'm sure Steve had some logic in play. 

    They just jinxed me a

    Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:26 pm

    They just jinxed me a bit by mentioning the 61.8% as likely target on Fast Money. In the same conversation they mentioned that the Fed is likely to want to keep things calm until after the midterms....which I totally agree with. Polls are already much better for the Dems after this market move. 

    It's not unnecessary.  He's just

    Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:41 pm

    It's not unnecessary.  He's just measuring the amount of the advance to project a symmetrical pullback. You don't get one without the other....ever.  That's the problem with going parabolic...in any direction...on any timeframe. 

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