Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 03:27 pm
Yes Steve - 2 fatal mistakes here decimating a lot of my profits
from the move up in July - gap up from 4127 and then shorting
yesterday up to at 4250 but not taking profit at 4203 - so went
short correctly but turned into loss as not taking
profits
Work full time so tough to see the mkt all day - but would be
really valuable if you could also cover in the weekend newsletter
on how to trade channel for turns and interim moves - what to watch
for
also besides a stop, that's why I think the systems are a good
way to hedge one's subjective trading. If you are following the
systems trades you would have been long from basically 3800 nearly
500 points, with a few shorts in between that move that were
winners in the uptrend as well, which could have helped to mitigate
some of your subjective trades
Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:17 pm
Am a newer trader - made massive losses in 2009 and just got out
completely for 10 years … then started stepping back in a
year or so ago - made losses with gurus before I found you guys
about 3 months ago
my biggest issues is stops - when I see the position turn
against then hope comes I’m ie when in profit at4203 yesterday and
the gap up today and small pullback to 4228 so added more short
saying maybe it will turn - thus turning big Loss into bigger
losses
Am currently 90% short starting from 4125 to 4280 now and it’s
hurting … and taking away the profits from last 2 months
Taking away some lessons from last 2-3 days
- Trade mostly with trend
- For counter trend or looking for a turn go much smaller -
follow the channel concept from steve
- stops use the levels posted if one breaks then exit no matter
what
I got burnt too. But losses are part of life. Move on to next
cut your losses early. I also violated the rule Steve posted. I
pressed shorts . Its not easy to be a rapid trader. Never go all
in in any trade. risk 2-5% max per trade.
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:27 pm
I think sometimes we hear what we want to hear. When Steve
posted about a 900-1000 point drop in the S&P, I am sure
some of us loaded up on shorts. He adjusted that comment a
little later saying that there could be a secondary high (which
indeed came today). Steve has done an amazing job with
mapping the market. However, I think for the less
experienced trader or those with a tendency to let emotions get the
best of them, it is best to just follow Matt's signals. Why?
Because they provide objective entries and exits. Just
discipline ourselves to follow them and keep our thinking out of
it. But don't try to out think the systems either.
Matt has spent a tremendous amount of time developing them.
Why think we are smarter than it is? The one MES trade
he mentioned provided a year's worth of trading income for many
with a rather smooth ride up. That's just some advice from
someone that has a tendency to let emotions creep in or interpret
comments towards my bias to implement trades. For some of the
advanced traders in the room, they can also play the other
trades, market comments, etc. Face it - they are much better
at it. But for some of us, just stick to the system!
And don't overtrade or want to have action all the time.
Be patient and wait for the trades. Have a good weekend
all.
Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:43 pm
Great advice ! Steve and Matt have been very awesome in Guiding
to stay long - I know how many times Steve kept repeating that from
July … I will pay more attention to the systems - there are so many
that it gets confusing …
I actually sold some long standing longs at losses yesterday
saying that with a 500-1000 point drop the 60% losses on them will
become 90% - of course they are up 5-6% today LOL … but some which
I didn’t sell acted as the long hedge to my net short positions
….
Yes I agree, Comments like that 900-1000 point drops are
distracting and quite honestly unnecessary. Who cares if that
happens or not ? The best profits in investing are made when we
dodge a major downturn like last 10 months. Any "predictions" from
here have to be objective. Last year, Matt and Steve laid out
amazing grounds like NAHL / wide ribbons on monthly etc. Not even
one analyst out there noted these. But now we dont have any
objective signs like that to be able to predict.
Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:50 pm
I don’t think it’s unnecessary- I wasn’t a sub then but for the
short from 4637 to 3637 as predicted then it could be played
short - additionally could be used to protect portfolio as well-
those growth stock were down around 30-40% for me at around 4637 -
would have still been a loss but a much smaller one than the 70%
down that they reached in June at 3637
so there is huge value in knowing that is a possibility again
!!!
I know that I stayed exclusively long till 4125 as Steve kept
repeating that it is not time yet and we reached that consolidation
zone which he had predicted in June as a minimum
So what kind of data are we looking at to predict that we are
going to drop 1000 points....is there is any NHNL divergence like
last year, any wide ribbons etc ? I am not saying its not going to
happen but it is definitely not a slam dunk. Do you have the guts
to sell all your portfolio and go short and not cover until 1000
points down or even 600 points down ? I definitely dont see
myself doing that. I see some perma bears calling for 1800 SPX.
just like kayKim permabull calling for SPX 22000 by 2030.
Anyways not going to talk further on this. My time is way more
valuable than enter into debates on forums
Arun..trade your plan. Did you believe in June when I projected
4230? Respect the trend until evidence changes. You won't
know until much later any specific reason. Listen to ALL my
comments last night. Have a great weekend
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:24 pm
I am 100% short after today, but it's a buffered short
(breakevens above 61.8%). I don't have to worry about the magnitude
of the pullback...I just need a pause or a crash. Either
would be fine. Pullback of 320 - 400 looks more likely to me, but I
think it will end up being a big B wave in even bigger ABC before
longer move down to new lows...and the turn will actually come at
the 78.6% fib. The only way I get 800 - 1000 currently is measuring
the bottom of the channel.....but I'm sure Steve had some logic in
play.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:26 pm
They just jinxed me a bit by mentioning the 61.8% as likely
target on Fast Money. In the same conversation they mentioned that
the Fed is likely to want to keep things calm until after the
midterms....which I totally agree with. Polls are already much
better for the Dems after this market move.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:41 pm
It's not unnecessary. He's just measuring the amount of
the advance to project a symmetrical pullback. You don't get one
without the other....ever. That's the problem with going
parabolic...in any direction...on any timeframe.
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Evidently you didn't choose to
Completely roasted on all the short I am holding as ...
Posted by steve on 12th of Aug 2022 at 03:00 pm
Evidently you didn't choose to follow my guidance. You may want to read ALL my comments word for word.
Yes Steve - 2 fatal
Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 03:27 pm
Yes Steve - 2 fatal mistakes here decimating a lot of my profits from the move up in July - gap up from 4127 and then shorting yesterday up to at 4250 but not taking profit at 4203 - so went short correctly but turned into loss as not taking profits
Work full time so tough to see the mkt all day - but would be really valuable if you could also cover in the weekend newsletter on how to trade channel for turns and interim moves - what to watch for
will be reading your channel notes again tonight
Nope I'm out this weekend
Posted by steve on 12th of Aug 2022 at 03:29 pm
Nope I'm out this weekend - just read all my posts step by step. Lastly, where was your STOP?
also besides a stop, that's
Posted by matt on 12th of Aug 2022 at 03:49 pm
also besides a stop, that's why I think the systems are a good way to hedge one's subjective trading. If you are following the systems trades you would have been long from basically 3800 nearly 500 points, with a few shorts in between that move that were winners in the uptrend as well, which could have helped to mitigate some of your subjective trades
Am a newer trader -
Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:17 pm
Am a newer trader - made massive losses in 2009 and just got out completely for 10 years … then started stepping back in a year or so ago - made losses with gurus before I found you guys about 3 months ago
my biggest issues is stops - when I see the position turn against then hope comes I’m ie when in profit at4203 yesterday and the gap up today and small pullback to 4228 so added more short saying maybe it will turn - thus turning big Loss into bigger losses
Am currently 90% short starting from 4125 to 4280 now and it’s hurting … and taking away the profits from last 2 months
Taking away some lessons from last 2-3 days
- Trade mostly with trend
- For counter trend or looking for a turn go much smaller - follow the channel concept from steve
- stops use the levels posted if one breaks then exit no matter what
Any other ? Appreciate the advice from the forum here … you guys and gals are amazing 🤩
I got burnt too. But
Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 03:16 pm
I got burnt too. But losses are part of life. Move on to next cut your losses early. I also violated the rule Steve posted. I pressed shorts . Its not easy to be a rapid trader. Never go all in in any trade. risk 2-5% max per trade.
I think sometimes we hear
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:27 pm
I think sometimes we hear what we want to hear. When Steve posted about a 900-1000 point drop in the S&P, I am sure some of us loaded up on shorts. He adjusted that comment a little later saying that there could be a secondary high (which indeed came today). Steve has done an amazing job with mapping the market. However, I think for the less experienced trader or those with a tendency to let emotions get the best of them, it is best to just follow Matt's signals. Why? Because they provide objective entries and exits. Just discipline ourselves to follow them and keep our thinking out of it. But don't try to out think the systems either. Matt has spent a tremendous amount of time developing them. Why think we are smarter than it is? The one MES trade he mentioned provided a year's worth of trading income for many with a rather smooth ride up. That's just some advice from someone that has a tendency to let emotions creep in or interpret comments towards my bias to implement trades. For some of the advanced traders in the room, they can also play the other trades, market comments, etc. Face it - they are much better at it. But for some of us, just stick to the system! And don't overtrade or want to have action all the time. Be patient and wait for the trades. Have a good weekend all.
Great advice ! Steve and
Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:43 pm
Great advice ! Steve and Matt have been very awesome in Guiding to stay long - I know how many times Steve kept repeating that from July … I will pay more attention to the systems - there are so many that it gets confusing …
I actually sold some long standing longs at losses yesterday saying that with a 500-1000 point drop the 60% losses on them will become 90% - of course they are up 5-6% today LOL … but some which I didn’t sell acted as the long hedge to my net short positions ….
Yes I agree, Comments like
Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:32 pm
Yes I agree, Comments like that 900-1000 point drops are distracting and quite honestly unnecessary. Who cares if that happens or not ? The best profits in investing are made when we dodge a major downturn like last 10 months. Any "predictions" from here have to be objective. Last year, Matt and Steve laid out amazing grounds like NAHL / wide ribbons on monthly etc. Not even one analyst out there noted these. But now we dont have any objective signs like that to be able to predict.
I don’t think it’s unnecessary-
Posted by anjali25 on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:50 pm
I don’t think it’s unnecessary- I wasn’t a sub then but for the short from 4637 to 3637 as predicted then it could be played short - additionally could be used to protect portfolio as well- those growth stock were down around 30-40% for me at around 4637 - would have still been a loss but a much smaller one than the 70% down that they reached in June at 3637
so there is huge value in knowing that is a possibility again !!!
I know that I stayed exclusively long till 4125 as Steve kept repeating that it is not time yet and we reached that consolidation zone which he had predicted in June as a minimum
So what kind of data
Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:05 pm
So what kind of data are we looking at to predict that we are going to drop 1000 points....is there is any NHNL divergence like last year, any wide ribbons etc ? I am not saying its not going to happen but it is definitely not a slam dunk. Do you have the guts to sell all your portfolio and go short and not cover until 1000 points down or even 600 points down ? I definitely dont see myself doing that. I see some perma bears calling for 1800 SPX. just like kayKim permabull calling for SPX 22000 by 2030.
Anyways not going to talk further on this. My time is way more valuable than enter into debates on forums
Arun..trade your plan. Did you
Posted by steve on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:27 pm
Arun..trade your plan. Did you believe in June when I projected 4230? Respect the trend until evidence changes. You won't know until much later any specific reason. Listen to ALL my comments last night. Have a great weekend
You have a great weekend
Posted by arun on 12th of Aug 2022 at 06:29 pm
You have a great weekend as well Steve. Thanks for all the time and hard work ðŸ™
I am 100% short after
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:24 pm
I am 100% short after today, but it's a buffered short (breakevens above 61.8%). I don't have to worry about the magnitude of the pullback...I just need a pause or a crash. Either would be fine. Pullback of 320 - 400 looks more likely to me, but I think it will end up being a big B wave in even bigger ABC before longer move down to new lows...and the turn will actually come at the 78.6% fib. The only way I get 800 - 1000 currently is measuring the bottom of the channel.....but I'm sure Steve had some logic in play.
They just jinxed me a
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 05:26 pm
They just jinxed me a bit by mentioning the 61.8% as likely target on Fast Money. In the same conversation they mentioned that the Fed is likely to want to keep things calm until after the midterms....which I totally agree with. Polls are already much better for the Dems after this market move.
It's not unnecessary. He's just
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Aug 2022 at 04:41 pm
It's not unnecessary. He's just measuring the amount of the advance to project a symmetrical pullback. You don't get one without the other....ever. That's the problem with going parabolic...in any direction...on any timeframe.