Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Aug 2022 at 01:59 pm
Steve, I personally think those charts get even more interesting
when you include the parallel channel from the major downtrend.
Looks like we're going to get a touch around the SPX 4180
level (if the minor uptrend continues). Fibs suggest this
move up could eventually go to 4228...which would be nicely outside
of the downtrend channel....which happens during major bear market
rallies. Rallies inside the down trend channel aren't enough to
turn enough bears into bulls and I think that's needed in order to
build up energy for the next move lower.
I wouldn't be surprised to see SPX 4375 since it's the 61.8 fib
of the bear market to date. I'm short SPX calls at that level and
will be adding if market decides to push in that
direction.
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:24 pm
Watcdy - We're overbought on many timeframes currently, so I'm
leaning net short delta. I typically short 16 ish delta (puts and
calls) and wait until I have overbought or oversold conditions in
order to do so. I'm making really good money today so might
take some profits off the board and consider lining up some long
delta trades for the move to the 50 or 61.8% fib that I think is
likely. I'm also prepared to roll out and up to the next Fib level,
if needed (need to keep 80+% cash for this strategy to be safe).
*None of Matt's systems are triggering short right now, so
you're absolutely right that it's early...but that's for shorting
at the money (effectively) with equites...which I'm not
doing.
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:58 pm
Watcdy - Delta is a measure of how much the option price
will move in relation to a move in the underlying. It's complicated
but imagine that you are short a 16 delta call in SPY. In order to
neutralize the trade (sort of), you would simply buy 16 shares of
SPY against 1 short call...but then you would have to adjust as
conditions change.
I definitely wouldn't recommend jumping into SPX credit
spreads (short puts and calls) until you get some options trading
under your belt with smaller instruments. Try "TastyTrade.com" for
education. It's a great site and community - almost but not quite
as good as this one ;) Including a screenshot of a short SPX
trade I would put on today, if I wanted to add more shorts. Note
the trade characteristics in the left hand column. You can get your
a!@ handed to you pretty quickly, if you aren't careful. The short
call in this example is currently about 16 delta.
Steve, I personally think those
SPX Just Some Things I'm Pondering
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Aug 2022 at 01:59 pm
Steve, I personally think those charts get even more interesting when you include the parallel channel from the major downtrend. Looks like we're going to get a touch around the SPX 4180 level (if the minor uptrend continues). Fibs suggest this move up could eventually go to 4228...which would be nicely outside of the downtrend channel....which happens during major bear market rallies. Rallies inside the down trend channel aren't enough to turn enough bears into bulls and I think that's needed in order to build up energy for the next move lower.
I wouldn't be surprised to see SPX 4375 since it's the 61.8 fib of the bear market to date. I'm short SPX calls at that level and will be adding if market decides to push in that direction.
Please tell why that SPX
Posted by watcdy on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:17 pm
Please tell why that SPX short call trade isn’t premature and won’t the premium move against you if we get up there ?
Watcdy - We're overbought on
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:24 pm
Watcdy - We're overbought on many timeframes currently, so I'm leaning net short delta. I typically short 16 ish delta (puts and calls) and wait until I have overbought or oversold conditions in order to do so. I'm making really good money today so might take some profits off the board and consider lining up some long delta trades for the move to the 50 or 61.8% fib that I think is likely. I'm also prepared to roll out and up to the next Fib level, if needed (need to keep 80+% cash for this strategy to be safe).
*None of Matt's systems are triggering short right now, so you're absolutely right that it's early...but that's for shorting at the money (effectively) with equites...which I'm not doing.
One more question- 16 delta
Posted by watcdy on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:37 pm
One more question- 16 delta ?
Watcdy - Delta is a
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:58 pm
Watcdy - Delta is a measure of how much the option price will move in relation to a move in the underlying. It's complicated but imagine that you are short a 16 delta call in SPY. In order to neutralize the trade (sort of), you would simply buy 16 shares of SPY against 1 short call...but then you would have to adjust as conditions change.
I definitely wouldn't recommend jumping into SPX credit spreads (short puts and calls) until you get some options trading under your belt with smaller instruments. Try "TastyTrade.com" for education. It's a great site and community - almost but not quite as good as this one ;) Including a screenshot of a short SPX trade I would put on today, if I wanted to add more shorts. Note the trade characteristics in the left hand column. You can get your a!@ handed to you pretty quickly, if you aren't careful. The short call in this example is currently about 16 delta.
Got it. Thx very much
Posted by watcdy on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:34 pm
Got it. Thx very much
Go ahead and post any
Posted by steve on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:03 pm
Go ahead and post any such charts digi - I have outlined my targets with the wildcard being Pelosi
SPX - Daily with some
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:10 pm
SPX - Daily with some channels and Fibs. Dashed red line is where I'm short SPX calls.
NIce call on that DigiNomad,
Posted by imelhoe on 1st of Aug 2022 at 02:20 pm
NIce call on that DigiNomad, i took one short call spread last week and making good on it now. !!