Recession Talk - lots of debate about the definition of
recession. Yes, traditionally 2 negative GDP quarters would
qualify. There are some strange factors with supply chain due
to covid, so I like to look at Econ Pi for some clarity.
Their BaR Grid analysis definitely shows a decline with a
likely result as a recession per this link
(http://www.econpi.com/index.php). I suggest reviewing this
for an objective and statistical monitoring of economic conditions.
There is a lot of history here so you can make your own
assessment of their presentation. Basically, their
indicators, which are based on gov stats, are in decline but not in
contraction indicative of recession. However, they do state
that the trend is down. I suppose whether we are in or will soon be
in a recession is sort of moot considering the Fed is going do
vacuum up liquidity. The one question I have is how these
proposed "Inflation Reduction Action" spending plans impact the
market. To me, it sounds like we are in a battleground until
more data becomes available. Trade carefully all!
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Aug 2022 at 10:50 am
Jared, as far as the nonsensically named "inflation reduction
act" goes, the MMT economists believe, in part, that
increased taxes are a primary means for sovereign nations with
control of their own currency to decrease inflationary pressures
and redistribute wealth. We're just seeing them play out that part
of the theory after the first phase got out of control. IMO.
I've never been able to figure out how MMT theories work in a
world with global trade, competing currencies, etc...and that's
part of the reason the theory has never been endorsed by anyone
other than nut jobs economists like AOC's professor at Boston
College...but it appears they are running with the next phase of
the theory anyway.
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Recession Talk - lots of
Posted by jared95 on 31st of Jul 2022 at 08:52 pm
Recession Talk - lots of debate about the definition of recession. Yes, traditionally 2 negative GDP quarters would qualify. There are some strange factors with supply chain due to covid, so I like to look at Econ Pi for some clarity. Their BaR Grid analysis definitely shows a decline with a likely result as a recession per this link (http://www.econpi.com/index.php). I suggest reviewing this for an objective and statistical monitoring of economic conditions. There is a lot of history here so you can make your own assessment of their presentation. Basically, their indicators, which are based on gov stats, are in decline but not in contraction indicative of recession. However, they do state that the trend is down. I suppose whether we are in or will soon be in a recession is sort of moot considering the Fed is going do vacuum up liquidity. The one question I have is how these proposed "Inflation Reduction Action" spending plans impact the market. To me, it sounds like we are in a battleground until more data becomes available. Trade carefully all!
Jared, as far as the
Posted by DigiNomad on 1st of Aug 2022 at 10:50 am
Jared, as far as the nonsensically named "inflation reduction act" goes, the MMT economists believe, in part, that increased taxes are a primary means for sovereign nations with control of their own currency to decrease inflationary pressures and redistribute wealth. We're just seeing them play out that part of the theory after the first phase got out of control. IMO. I've never been able to figure out how MMT theories work in a world with global trade, competing currencies, etc...and that's part of the reason the theory has never been endorsed by anyone other than nut jobs economists like AOC's professor at Boston College...but it appears they are running with the next phase of the theory anyway.