Looking forward to the newsletter tonight. Have to wonder if
Apple and Amazon beats are priming the market for a gap and and
go... or a gap and crap given the SPX daily is about ready to hit
its 38% retracement, not to mention EdZ's day chart of the Qs that
shows the Qs bumping up against resistance which undoubtedly
they'll take out with a gap up tomorrow. Throw in the turn date
that Steve mentioned and should be interesting!
Posted by timebandit on 28th of Jul 2022 at 07:20 pm
Don't forget about the news releases that will come at 8:30 am
and 9:45 am. See the listing in the newsletter. These could change
the tone and backdrop considerably.
and not to mention- I’m not contradicting Steve’s view here.
Obviously he is a seasoned trader. But on a intermediate term basis
, pullbacks are buyable.
energy is better spent on buying pullbacks than trying
short.
Who's been shorting? Certainly not us, we've been long biased
for quite a while. The systems did some quick reversion to mean
shorts, that's the systems and they are mutually exclusive to our
analysis. Our favored view has been for an up move to the 4200 area
for a few weeks, the first target was the open gap but our bias was
for higher. We of course sell at resistance levels and take profits
along the way or take some hedges near resistance zones
Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Jul 2022 at 01:42 am
Interesting - what expiration ? I assume you are selling
those. I'm building on my July 2023 SPY 340-320 bear
spread (buying) - my strategy is that we'll get to 3200 by then.
If you read this I'd like to hear your strategy.
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Jul 2022 at 11:43 am
Corrected strikes: fredsaid - yes, selling call spreads in SPX
right now. My first layer was AUG 4185/4285 (back when vix was low
30's) and my latest is SPX 4350/4450. I try to sell strikes between
16 and 20 delta and then reduce capital requirements and risk by
spreading it out with a long put or call. With the VIX down here,
it's starting to be tempting to go long vol, but my system is much
less complicated when I keep it to selling premium instead of
buying it. I make a few exceptions here and there to play
single stocks, but with short premium, I can always see exactly how
much I have "on the board" for any given expiry and use that to hit
my monthly income targets.
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Jul 2022 at 12:10 pm
Imelhoe - used AUG 18 for the 1st tranche (short SPX 4185) and
SEP 15 for the 2nd tranche (short 4350 - started
yesterday and added to this morning).
TBH - the returns aren't great with VIX at this level, but I
like to keep it mechanical as much as possible. So I tend to accept
lower returns during low vol periods. Most options traders move
away from indexes when the VIX drops in order to achieve higher
returns for a given capital outlay...but I like the relative safety
inherent in the indexes and capital isn't really my limiting
factor...for me it's more about managing overall risk.
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Jul 2022 at 12:43 pm
tmbrook1 - that screenshot is from Interactive Brokers (click
the "performance" box when reviewing a trade), but I typically use
either ThinkorSwim or Tasty Works to analyze option trades and then
I execute them on Interactive Brokers. They all have about the same
capabilities, but some are easier to use than others.
I never said you guys asked to short. I have been long and only
started SQQQ literally before AAPL reported after hours. I have
been nothing but long for a while and even now have longs. But I
took SQQQ without a trigger. I said what I said because it looked
like few others members were getting ready to short and I wanted to
share with them my views.
If we keep shorting, one day we will be right. Just like we
finally got it right after trying long so many times even
though the market was screaming sell.
The way I see it - VIX is down
Market is above 20 day MA. stocks are participating broadly. So no
need to get creative. Money is on long side until it changes. I
bought SQQQ thinking creative and got my a#%^ handed. Maybe I will
get out with small loss or breakeven if I wait for few days or
weeks but it’s a dumb trade.
remember Steve's buss analogy. Everyone was on the bear buss
(every seat was taken) and before this market is ready to start the
next leg down you have to fully unload that short buss and fill the
bulls buss up all the way. Once that Bulls buss is at capacity then
the market will be ready
we discussed that the market needed a very strong really to
unload that bus
what we really need is for the market to go up high enough that
many of you start questioning the bear market and thinking it might
be over
Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Jul 2022 at 01:48 am
Cramer called for the 'all aboard' the bulls bus today. He
said you only have a couple days to get on the bus or you'll miss
it. I've been watching this guy for years - I just didn't
realize how shite he was till now. Maybe that's why he get's
the shit kicked outa him on Twitter which is the only true feedback
he gets. No joke - 2 days ago on Mad Money he said "Don't
buy" - i even posted something like I've never heard him say that
because "there's always a bull market somewhere". Now 2 days
later he's like buy, buy, buy or you'll miss the boat. R U
Fing kidding me ? I've been lmao all evening thinking about
this. Driving up from North Carolina to Canada tomorrow ...
need to cool down.
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coming up near the 38% Fib retrace from the early Jan highs to June lows
Posted by matt on 28th of Jul 2022 at 04:20 pm
$SPX - Chart Link
Looking forward to the newsletter
Posted by DK on 28th of Jul 2022 at 06:15 pm
Looking forward to the newsletter tonight. Have to wonder if Apple and Amazon beats are priming the market for a gap and and go... or a gap and crap given the SPX daily is about ready to hit its 38% retracement, not to mention EdZ's day chart of the Qs that shows the Qs bumping up against resistance which undoubtedly they'll take out with a gap up tomorrow. Throw in the turn date that Steve mentioned and should be interesting!
Don't forget about the news
Posted by timebandit on 28th of Jul 2022 at 07:20 pm
Don't forget about the news releases that will come at 8:30 am and 9:45 am. See the listing in the newsletter. These could change the tone and backdrop considerably.
Of course. and not to
Posted by arun on 28th of Jul 2022 at 07:22 pm
Of course.
and not to mention- I’m not contradicting Steve’s view here. Obviously he is a seasoned trader. But on a intermediate term basis , pullbacks are buyable.
energy is better spent on buying pullbacks than trying short.
Who's been shorting? Certainly not
Posted by matt on 28th of Jul 2022 at 07:28 pm
Who's been shorting? Certainly not us, we've been long biased for quite a while. The systems did some quick reversion to mean shorts, that's the systems and they are mutually exclusive to our analysis. Our favored view has been for an up move to the 4200 area for a few weeks, the first target was the open gap but our bias was for higher. We of course sell at resistance levels and take profits along the way or take some hedges near resistance zones
I've been building short positions.
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Jul 2022 at 10:55 pm
I've been building short positions. My latest is SPX 2350/2450 call spreads. Adding on the way up.
Interesting - what expiration ?
Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Jul 2022 at 01:42 am
Interesting - what expiration ? I assume you are selling those. I'm building on my July 2023 SPY 340-320 bear spread (buying) - my strategy is that we'll get to 3200 by then. If you read this I'd like to hear your strategy.
Corrected strikes: fredsaid - yes,
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Jul 2022 at 11:43 am
Corrected strikes: fredsaid - yes, selling call spreads in SPX right now. My first layer was AUG 4185/4285 (back when vix was low 30's) and my latest is SPX 4350/4450. I try to sell strikes between 16 and 20 delta and then reduce capital requirements and risk by spreading it out with a long put or call. With the VIX down here, it's starting to be tempting to go long vol, but my system is much less complicated when I keep it to selling premium instead of buying it. I make a few exceptions here and there to play single stocks, but with short premium, I can always see exactly how much I have "on the board" for any given expiry and use that to hit my monthly income targets.
Cool
Posted by fredsaid on 2nd of Aug 2022 at 01:31 pm
Cool
Hi Digi Nomad , are
Posted by imelhoe on 29th of Jul 2022 at 11:56 am
Hi Digi Nomad , are you using august 19 expirtion for your spx call credit spreads or Sept 1?
Imelhoe - used AUG 18
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Jul 2022 at 12:10 pm
Imelhoe - used AUG 18 for the 1st tranche (short SPX 4185) and SEP 15 for the 2nd tranche (short 4350 - started yesterday and added to this morning).
TBH - the returns aren't great with VIX at this level, but I like to keep it mechanical as much as possible. So I tend to accept lower returns during low vol periods. Most options traders move away from indexes when the VIX drops in order to achieve higher returns for a given capital outlay...but I like the relative safety inherent in the indexes and capital isn't really my limiting factor...for me it's more about managing overall risk.
tks very much for your
Posted by imelhoe on 29th of Jul 2022 at 12:28 pm
tks very much for your analysis!!
This is my next layer
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Jul 2022 at 12:18 pm
This is my next layer for SPX.
14% return/risk with 82% profit probability is about what I look for. 10% return/risk and 80% probability is my floor.
What is the platform you
Posted by tmbrook1 on 29th of Jul 2022 at 12:35 pm
What is the platform you are using for this display of information.
tmbrook1 - that screenshot is
Posted by DigiNomad on 29th of Jul 2022 at 12:43 pm
tmbrook1 - that screenshot is from Interactive Brokers (click the "performance" box when reviewing a trade), but I typically use either ThinkorSwim or Tasty Works to analyze option trades and then I execute them on Interactive Brokers. They all have about the same capabilities, but some are easier to use than others.
Thanks
Posted by tmbrook1 on 29th of Jul 2022 at 12:55 pm
Thanks
What is the platform you
Posted by tmbrook1 on 29th of Jul 2022 at 12:28 pm
What is the platform you are using that displays this information.
I never said you guys
Posted by arun on 28th of Jul 2022 at 08:22 pm
I never said you guys asked to short. I have been long and only started SQQQ literally before AAPL reported after hours. I have been nothing but long for a while and even now have longs. But I took SQQQ without a trigger. I said what I said because it looked like few others members were getting ready to short and I wanted to share with them my views.
If we keep shorting, one
Posted by arun on 28th of Jul 2022 at 07:04 pm
If we keep shorting, one day we will be right. Just like we finally got it right after trying long so many times even though the market was screaming sell.
The way I see it - VIX is down Market is above 20 day MA. stocks are participating broadly. So no need to get creative. Money is on long side until it changes. I bought SQQQ thinking creative and got my a#%^ handed. Maybe I will get out with small loss or breakeven if I wait for few days or weeks but it’s a dumb trade.
remember Steve's buss analogy. Everyone
Posted by matt on 28th of Jul 2022 at 07:21 pm
remember Steve's buss analogy. Everyone was on the bear buss (every seat was taken) and before this market is ready to start the next leg down you have to fully unload that short buss and fill the bulls buss up all the way. Once that Bulls buss is at capacity then the market will be ready
we discussed that the market needed a very strong really to unload that bus
what we really need is for the market to go up high enough that many of you start questioning the bear market and thinking it might be over
Cramer called for the 'all
Posted by fredsaid on 29th of Jul 2022 at 01:48 am
Cramer called for the 'all aboard' the bulls bus today. He said you only have a couple days to get on the bus or you'll miss it. I've been watching this guy for years - I just didn't realize how shite he was till now. Maybe that's why he get's the shit kicked outa him on Twitter which is the only true feedback he gets. No joke - 2 days ago on Mad Money he said "Don't buy" - i even posted something like I've never heard him say that because "there's always a bull market somewhere". Now 2 days later he's like buy, buy, buy or you'll miss the boat. R U Fing kidding me ? I've been lmao all evening thinking about this. Driving up from North Carolina to Canada tomorrow ... need to cool down.