Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:54 pm
Thinking that a resumption of bear market after we hit 4020ish
is too obvious. See Steve and Matt scenario of 4200 as more
likely. Spend a week over 4000 and keep climbing to a non round
target of 4200. Will make even the bears think market bottom is in.
Also SPY and ES systems usually have at least a second entry.
That does not come without 50-100 points moves higher.
Maybe we don’t get to 4200 so even technicians get faked out
but top at 4150-4180. Pure speculation on my part but based
on how things seem to go in the past.
Posted by fredsaid on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:59 pm
Certainly makes sense as the pain trade and im holding short
term calls to offset. Also that would break symmetry on the C wave
indicating a higher low and a move even higher.. maybe thats the
move over next 2 weeks to the 200 dma ov even slightly hifher.
I'll be posting the update trade tables soon. I'm waiting on a
workspace to open.
also and I dont' show these enough I know. There's the KISS
smaller time frames 1/2 day, 120 min, and 60 min - they will do 1
or 2 whipsaws in a row, then catch a running
Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:34 pm
Love the systems! For now I'm using them to leg into what ends
up being iron condors...often unbalanced wings as I leg in.
Eventually, I'd like to track the average number of trades
generated over a year or more and build a system for the systems
that makes it a bit more mechanical in terms of sizing per trade
with a total portfolio allocation in mind for system trades (I'm
currently running it around 10%, but it's a mental thing since I
haven't yet figure out how to build the allocation model given all
the different triggers).
Posted by fredsaid on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:13 pm
Only reason i call it the pain trade is because everyone knows
we are in a bear but we're grinding higher. The higher we
grind the more pain the bears feel.
Any chance of a third
Should be about time for the moon (4020) now ... ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:19 pm
Any chance of a third entry short? @Matt
Thinking that a resumption of
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:54 pm
Thinking that a resumption of bear market after we hit 4020ish is too obvious. See Steve and Matt scenario of 4200 as more likely. Spend a week over 4000 and keep climbing to a non round target of 4200. Will make even the bears think market bottom is in. Also SPY and ES systems usually have at least a second entry. That does not come without 50-100 points moves higher. Maybe we don’t get to 4200 so even technicians get faked out but top at 4150-4180. Pure speculation on my part but based on how things seem to go in the past.
Certainly makes sense as the
Posted by fredsaid on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:59 pm
Certainly makes sense as the pain trade and im holding short term calls to offset. Also that would break symmetry on the C wave indicating a higher low and a move even higher.. maybe thats the move over next 2 weeks to the 200 dma ov even slightly hifher.
stop referring to it as
Posted by matt on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:00 pm
stop referring to it as the pain trade there's open longs. Also the breakout is going long on ES
so there's a combination of longs and shorts: come on guys
Matt, your systems are beautiful.
Posted by bpozdoll1717 on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:17 pm
Matt, your systems are beautiful. Much appreciated. Also great call by you guys on market hitting 4000 gap. Amazing.
I'll be posting the update
Posted by matt on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:20 pm
I'll be posting the update trade tables soon. I'm waiting on a workspace to open.
also and I dont' show these enough I know. There's the KISS smaller time frames 1/2 day, 120 min, and 60 min - they will do 1 or 2 whipsaws in a row, then catch a running
they basically went back long on the 15th of July
Love the systems! For now
Posted by DigiNomad on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:34 pm
Love the systems! For now I'm using them to leg into what ends up being iron condors...often unbalanced wings as I leg in. Eventually, I'd like to track the average number of trades generated over a year or more and build a system for the systems that makes it a bit more mechanical in terms of sizing per trade with a total portfolio allocation in mind for system trades (I'm currently running it around 10%, but it's a mental thing since I haven't yet figure out how to build the allocation model given all the different triggers).
Only reason i call it
Posted by fredsaid on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:13 pm
Only reason i call it the pain trade is because everyone knows we are in a bear but we're grinding higher. The higher we grind the more pain the bears feel.
Listen tonight for my thoughts
Posted by steve on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:56 pm
Listen tonight for my thoughts - posted below earlier a quick note
Thanks, Steve. I took an
Posted by timebandit on 21st of Jul 2022 at 04:12 pm
Thanks, Steve. I took an early hedge as well. We'll see.
Matt wasn't kidding when he
Posted by DK on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:21 pm
Matt wasn't kidding when he said that those who took the current system shorts would take some heat!
LOL it's not that bad
Posted by matt on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:56 pm
LOL it's not that bad dude, plus there's a couple open longs from the systems to help offset some
and I was about as clear as I could be that I was looking for higher prices and that these initial ones would be early
The strongest steel is forged
Posted by retirefire on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:40 pm
The strongest steel is forged by the hottest fires.
ha ... nice
Posted by fredsaid on 21st of Jul 2022 at 03:41 pm
ha ... nice