Yep. We've got a ways to go, yet. So many talking heads (CNBS) are already asking every day: "So is low in"?  This is gonna get old real fast.

    June statements will be the

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 21st of Jun 2022 at 09:50 am

    June statements will be the reality check for investors. Many only look at the quarterly statements and they were ok in March because of the runup to 4,600s. Of course much different now because stocks AND bonds are both down substantially since then. That bond impact (historic) is really going to make those statements look much worse than just having stocks down 20-25%. Not providing the ballast they are in traditional portfolios to provide. 

    Worst of it all is, the advice of most financial advisors is to just keep the faith and hold on, comparisons being made to history. "It always comes back if your timeframe is long enough". What I don't like about those comparisons is that in all those periods, we had supportive Fed policy (easing). Right now policy is not supportive of assets prices, it is actually in reverse. In addition to this, the financial issues aren't being solved otherwise. Money is being spent like there are no issues right now. The trouble markets are having today are many years in the making. 

    Once the Fed buys some room with the hikes, balance sheet moves, and temporarily calms inflation.. I think they will be back in a position to have to consider easing again to stay afloat. With parties being so far apart on solutions for anything, I'm not sure where the long term solution is, other than everything going much lower to reset. As has been pointed out, the best to hope for is that we are systematically ok when that time comes. 

    I'm talking big picture long term here, though still believe there will have pockets of opportunity at times. Just will need to continue to be flexible as markets change. 

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