3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
$SPX This morning's gap up to me is further evidence of how
illiquid this market is. I shared a bit back that it can be moved
in both directions pretty effortlessly. It makes me suspect that
the big money will influence a capitulation before this bottoms. I
would be shocked if we can just gap and go and not look back here.
Not the normal way that markets put in a bottom, even a tradeable
bottom. I've been wrong before though, just ask my wife
LOL - my wife reminds me quite often
wife's are good at that
also they have perfect memory (for anything we did in the past
that they didn't like) - mine will get angry and remind me
something I said or did back in 2005 -I'm like how the hell do you
remember that crap LOL. I try and argue back 'well you did
plenty of stuff I didn't like' she'll say okay tell me, I'll say 'I
don't remember LOL
My wife says I only have 2 faults. I don't listen and
Agree.....I am always suspicious of a gap after a holiday...ie
We are still in a bear market.....this will not be "the"
Yep. We've got a ways to go, yet. So many talking heads (CNBS)
are already asking every day: "So is low in"? This is gonna
get old real fast.
June statements will be the reality check for investors. Many
only look at the quarterly statements and they were ok in March
because of the runup to 4,600s. Of course much different now
because stocks AND bonds are both down substantially since then.
That bond impact (historic) is really going to make those
statements look much worse than just having stocks down 20-25%. Not
providing the ballast they are in traditional portfolios to
Worst of it all is, the advice of most financial advisors is to
just keep the faith and hold on, comparisons being made to history.
"It always comes back if your timeframe is long enough". What I
don't like about those comparisons is that in all those periods, we
had supportive Fed policy (easing). Right now policy is not
supportive of assets prices, it is actually in reverse. In addition
to this, the financial issues aren't being solved otherwise. Money
is being spent like there are no issues right now. The trouble
markets are having today are many years in the making.
Once the Fed buys some room with the hikes, balance sheet moves,
and temporarily calms inflation.. I think they will be back in a
position to have to consider easing again to stay afloat. With
parties being so far apart on solutions for anything, I'm not sure
where the long term solution is, other than everything going much
lower to reset. As has been pointed out, the best to hope for is
that we are systematically ok when that time comes.
I'm talking big picture long term here, though still believe
there will have pockets of opportunity at times. Just will need to
continue to be flexible as markets change.
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