Posted by fredsaid on 14th of Jun 2022 at 04:15 pm
50 basis points = drop down to 3650 in short order and possibly
resume June swoon giddiyup down to 3200, then we start a decent
summer bounce around the 4th of July, then dump hard once demand
destruction comes.
75 basis point = start the summer rally only now and fall apart
later to 3200. If the aggressive moves begin, the chances for
a further drop below 3200 BEGIN to diminish but demand destruction
can at least begin.
Both roads lead to AT LEAST 3200 on the SnP, only question is
when. I'm thinking 50 basis points and we drop like a hot
potato is more likely, especially if we rally up into it
tomorrow.
It's simply an acknowledgement the FED is attempting to address
(possible excuse for a relief rally) - however, it's far too little
and too late. As stated, they are in between a rock and a
hard place (putting it mildly)
Posted by simple_million on 14th of Jun 2022 at 06:14 pm
I mean they addressed the issue by saying 2 50's and then see
what happens when supply chains ease and war ends (eventually).
They can't have enough data to backtrack on "wait and see"
before the waiting and seeing lol.
I was bullish when thinking about event volatility and OPEX and
all that, but if they do 75bps (and assuming its not a pull forward
and pause) that seems like a panic move -- shouldn't that
lead to a panic reaction by the market?
Panic move - they are light years behind the curve. I'm
sure the thought is that the sooner they raise the quicker they can
start another round of QE. What a mess
The problem now is the massive amount of debt unlike 2000-02 and
2007-09.
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50 basis points = drop
Posted by fredsaid on 14th of Jun 2022 at 04:15 pm
50 basis points = drop down to 3650 in short order and possibly resume June swoon giddiyup down to 3200, then we start a decent summer bounce around the 4th of July, then dump hard once demand destruction comes.
75 basis point = start the summer rally only now and fall apart later to 3200. If the aggressive moves begin, the chances for a further drop below 3200 BEGIN to diminish but demand destruction can at least begin.
Both roads lead to AT LEAST 3200 on the SnP, only question is when. I'm thinking 50 basis points and we drop like a hot potato is more likely, especially if we rally up into it tomorrow.
Funny that's pretty much what
Posted by steve on 14th of Jun 2022 at 05:54 pm
Funny that's pretty much what I texted to Matt earlier today....I think they go 75 basis points now (see below)
Former NY FED Dudley : I THINK THEY ARE GOING TO DO 75 BASIS POINTS
Steve Liesman - CNBC: The Fed likely to hike interest rates by 75 BPS this week
JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs : the Fed is going 75 BPS on Wed
I don't understand the theory
Posted by simple_million on 14th of Jun 2022 at 05:59 pm
I don't understand the theory of 75 bps being bullish AT ALL -- but I've seen that a lot on Fintwit the last few days as well.
It's simply an acknowledgement the
Posted by steve on 14th of Jun 2022 at 06:02 pm
It's simply an acknowledgement the FED is attempting to address (possible excuse for a relief rally) - however, it's far too little and too late. As stated, they are in between a rock and a hard place (putting it mildly)
I mean they addressed the
Posted by simple_million on 14th of Jun 2022 at 06:14 pm
I mean they addressed the issue by saying 2 50's and then see what happens when supply chains ease and war ends (eventually). They can't have enough data to backtrack on "wait and see" before the waiting and seeing lol.
I was bullish when thinking about event volatility and OPEX and all that, but if they do 75bps (and assuming its not a pull forward and pause) that seems like a panic move -- shouldn't that lead to a panic reaction by the market?
Panic move - they are
Posted by steve on 14th of Jun 2022 at 06:23 pm
Panic move - they are light years behind the curve. I'm sure the thought is that the sooner they raise the quicker they can start another round of QE. What a mess
The problem now is the massive amount of debt unlike 2000-02 and 2007-09.