3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
50 basis points = drop down to 3650 in short order and possibly
resume June swoon giddiyup down to 3200, then we start a decent
summer bounce around the 4th of July, then dump hard once demand
75 basis point = start the summer rally only now and fall apart
later to 3200. If the aggressive moves begin, the chances for
a further drop below 3200 BEGIN to diminish but demand destruction
can at least begin.
Both roads lead to AT LEAST 3200 on the SnP, only question is
when. I'm thinking 50 basis points and we drop like a hot
potato is more likely, especially if we rally up into it
Funny that's pretty much what I texted to Matt earlier
today....I think they go 75 basis points now (see below)
Former NY FED Dudley : I THINK THEY ARE GOING TO DO 75 BASIS
Steve Liesman - CNBC: The Fed likely to hike interest rates by
75 BPS this week
JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs : the Fed is going 75 BPS on
I don't understand the theory of 75 bps being bullish AT ALL --
but I've seen that a lot on Fintwit the last few days as well.
It's simply an acknowledgement the FED is attempting to address
(possible excuse for a relief rally) - however, it's far too little
and too late. As stated, they are in between a rock and a
hard place (putting it mildly)
I mean they addressed the issue by saying 2 50's and then see
what happens when supply chains ease and war ends (eventually).
They can't have enough data to backtrack on "wait and see"
before the waiting and seeing lol.
I was bullish when thinking about event volatility and OPEX and
all that, but if they do 75bps (and assuming its not a pull forward
and pause) that seems like a panic move -- shouldn't that
lead to a panic reaction by the market?
Panic move - they are light years behind the curve. I'm
sure the thought is that the sooner they raise the quicker they can
start another round of QE. What a mess
The problem now is the massive amount of debt unlike 2000-02 and
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