Matt were you saying if

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    Posted by simple_million on 5th of Jun 2022 at 11:29 pm

    Matt were you saying if the Fed pivots, that would strengthen the case for all time high prices and a continuation of the bull market?  Or would a pivot just lead to the kind of wave 5 we were looking for initially before prices retrace the whole bull market, possibly to low 2000's over time?  

    I actually think we get disinflation soon (a few months) and a pivot not too far behind (before midterms), but would the pivot lead to more sustainable highs, or just more of a short term spike? 

    maybe I didn't convey it

    Posted by matt on 6th of Jun 2022 at 12:07 am

    maybe I didn't convey it well enough - but what I meant is that I don't see how the Fed can pivot and change anything soon - and yes the market looks ahead 6 months out or whatever but given the backdrop of so many things, I don't see how the market can just be healed so quickly and be ready to go back to highs. 

    if you don't count the Feb/Mar correction as bear market - we've had a bull market since 2009 - near 13 years the market just from a technical perspective needs a bear market that lasts a while.  A bear market that is long enough to reset things, really consolidate the charts. And as Steve and I have stating - we hope all we get is a 1 or 2 year bear market for stocks - we can handle that. What we don't want to see is a breaking of the system, financial markets, deflation, food shortages, social unrest, crap like that. I would feel fortunate if all we see is a 1 - 2 year bear market in stocks play out


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