Ciovacco Comments

    Posted by steve on 17th of May 2022 at 06:02 pm

    The idea/odds of a sustained rally/new bull market would be much higher with a Fed pivot (see 1998-2021 window). Listened to Powell today, did not hear anything approximating "a pivot".  One of many factors (a big one).

    “Truthfully, this is not a time for tremendously nuanced readings of inflation. We need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way. That is what we need to see. Until we see that, we are going to keep going." ~ Jerome Powell today

    I thought Pow was getting

    Posted by simple_million on 17th of May 2022 at 10:33 pm

    I thought Pow was getting pretty explicit about how talking about tightening was doing the job of actual tightening , so a couple 50 bps and wait and see is all we get -- anything more is going to require more (worse) data -- that's quite a pivot from the rumblings about 75-100 bps we were starting to hear.   Macro picture changing pretty rapidly too.  Now we can front run the disinflation data and the subsequent actual Powell pivot.  But we also "could" have done that months ago lol.  As you say, one level at a time :)


Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!