Really feels like everyone has been worn out and given up at
this point after the worst four month start in 80 years..There
could be a good air pocket here to get back up to 4,280 or
higher.
There will be an inflation reading lower than the recent highs
and there will be cases made that peak inflation has already
occurred. I also find it interesting that long outflows have been
heavy and sentiment is very bearish.
I don't think that changes the Fed's course because they are a
typical board that is behind the curve (could have raised last year
with strong earnings and a market at all time highs). Now they are
going to raise into market lows. Can't make this stuff
up.
So we know what is wrong already and have for some time. It is
much too bearish for the many good earnings reports that have come
out as well. Not saying the long term view is different, just that
I think from a trading perspective it has some legs higher before
lower.
And there it is, so glad I was loading into all that end of the
world talk. 246 points so far off the 4,062 bottom to today's high.
Plenty of money to be made in many areas. I'd be shocked if it just
moved straight back down after a power move like this today. This
isn't a one day looking candle. A lot of people are off sides here
now whether not long enough or short at extremes.
This argument does make sense. Correction started Feb 2021 in
growth stocks. IF bear markets last 1-2 years as Matt said, may be
we are turning a corner or at least getting close in 6-12
months
as I said, I'm expecting still higher prices and we had a
symmetry break - so it may take some time to play out with an ABC
like move higher low -
we had nice long legged doji candlesticks on Monday on SPX, Dow,
XLF - you generally get a good move from that. And like you said,
tons of bearishness and in these bear markets you tend to get what
I call 'rip your face off rallies' this kind of stuff is typical in
bear markets
Bears gotta be wondering if that was the bottom though, it has
to be in the back of their minds. Inflation reading will also be
better and the peak inflation argument will be out there. Buffet
bought $41 billion recently in assets. Climbing the wall of worry?
Gotta stay balanced and not assume this has to resolve lower. It
certainly can, though we are starting to repeat the same stuff over
and over. Earnings reports have been fairly good and many areas
already destroyed over the last few years internally.
Posted by mastermind on 4th of May 2022 at 09:22 am
I've thought about that some too. Nobody plans to or wants to be
a contrarian indicator, but at what point might excessive
bearishness in the BPT community point to a potential turnaround
rally?
Posted by timebandit on 4th of May 2022 at 09:45 am
If you're playing levels like Matt and Steve have suggested with
the hundred point daily swings, then you can lean bearish and
bullish from minute to minute and hour to hour. That said,
today may be a narrrower range until 2pm, at which point all hell
breaks loose
I tend to not thing of this community as a proxy for the general
public, but as a repository of more advanced traders/technicians.
BPT community is not representative of the public sheep and
AG Edwards investing crowd - it's the inner circle man
Posted by mastermind on 4th of May 2022 at 09:53 am
That is the hope, of course. And I am putting some faith in it.
But trying to be flexible in my views too, as is often preached
here. Honestly, the bearishness here is probably good for me, as my
fault is generally being too optimistic.
Posted by retirefire on 4th of May 2022 at 09:45 am
I respect that and welcome constructive criticism rather than
learning the expensive way. Just trying to tread water and
recover from previous mistakes
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Posted by brophy on 4th of May 2022 at 08:21 am
market no more downside but
Posted by kobie on 4th of May 2022 at 08:25 am
market no more downside but we are reducing our long exposure....???
Really feels like everyone has
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 4th of May 2022 at 08:46 am
Really feels like everyone has been worn out and given up at this point after the worst four month start in 80 years..There could be a good air pocket here to get back up to 4,280 or higher.
There will be an inflation reading lower than the recent highs and there will be cases made that peak inflation has already occurred. I also find it interesting that long outflows have been heavy and sentiment is very bearish.
I don't think that changes the Fed's course because they are a typical board that is behind the curve (could have raised last year with strong earnings and a market at all time highs). Now they are going to raise into market lows. Can't make this stuff up.
So we know what is wrong already and have for some time. It is much too bearish for the many good earnings reports that have come out as well. Not saying the long term view is different, just that I think from a trading perspective it has some legs higher before lower.
And there it is, so
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 4th of May 2022 at 05:10 pm
And there it is, so glad I was loading into all that end of the world talk. 246 points so far off the 4,062 bottom to today's high. Plenty of money to be made in many areas. I'd be shocked if it just moved straight back down after a power move like this today. This isn't a one day looking candle. A lot of people are off sides here now whether not long enough or short at extremes.
This argument does make sense.
Posted by arun on 4th of May 2022 at 05:44 pm
This argument does make sense. Correction started Feb 2021 in growth stocks. IF bear markets last 1-2 years as Matt said, may be we are turning a corner or at least getting close in 6-12 months
as I said, I'm expecting
Posted by matt on 4th of May 2022 at 05:22 pm
as I said, I'm expecting still higher prices and we had a symmetry break - so it may take some time to play out with an ABC like move higher low -
we had nice long legged doji candlesticks on Monday on SPX, Dow, XLF - you generally get a good move from that. And like you said, tons of bearishness and in these bear markets you tend to get what I call 'rip your face off rallies' this kind of stuff is typical in bear markets
Bears gotta be wondering if
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 4th of May 2022 at 05:26 pm
Bears gotta be wondering if that was the bottom though, it has to be in the back of their minds. Inflation reading will also be better and the peak inflation argument will be out there. Buffet bought $41 billion recently in assets. Climbing the wall of worry? Gotta stay balanced and not assume this has to resolve lower. It certainly can, though we are starting to repeat the same stuff over and over. Earnings reports have been fairly good and many areas already destroyed over the last few years internally.
I've thought about that some
Posted by mastermind on 4th of May 2022 at 09:22 am
I've thought about that some too. Nobody plans to or wants to be a contrarian indicator, but at what point might excessive bearishness in the BPT community point to a potential turnaround rally?
If you're playing levels like
Posted by timebandit on 4th of May 2022 at 09:45 am
If you're playing levels like Matt and Steve have suggested with the hundred point daily swings, then you can lean bearish and bullish from minute to minute and hour to hour. That said, today may be a narrrower range until 2pm, at which point all hell breaks loose
I tend to not thing
Posted by matt on 4th of May 2022 at 09:34 am
I tend to not thing of this community as a proxy for the general public, but as a repository of more advanced traders/technicians. BPT community is not representative of the public sheep and AG Edwards investing crowd - it's the inner circle man
That is the hope, of
Posted by mastermind on 4th of May 2022 at 09:53 am
That is the hope, of course. And I am putting some faith in it. But trying to be flexible in my views too, as is often preached here. Honestly, the bearishness here is probably good for me, as my fault is generally being too optimistic.
When you should get nervous
Posted by kobie on 4th of May 2022 at 09:59 am
When you should get nervous is when everybody starts getting bullish again.......then you load on the shorts!
What is the NQ that
Posted by drmolar on 5th of May 2022 at 04:49 am
What is the NQ that you show on your charts ?
NQ is the Nasdaq Futures
Posted by limitless on 5th of May 2022 at 07:38 am
NQ is the Nasdaq Futures contract.
I respect that and welcome
Posted by retirefire on 4th of May 2022 at 09:45 am
I respect that and welcome constructive criticism rather than learning the expensive way. Just trying to tread water and recover from previous mistakes