Posted by simple_million on 21st of Feb 2022 at 08:40 pm
When you discuss being in a "bear market" you mean a cyclical
bear in the middle of a secular bull, right? I
rewatched your Big Picture YT video from last summer and was
thinking that if an investor has a multi-year timeframe and wants
to hold MSFT and AAPL for example, they could expect with some
confidence that prices will get back to their highs as long as
they're willing to wait a few years. Does that still make
sense, given the market behavior over the last year? Thanks
Matt, and great video as always!
The hope for everyone is that it will be a bear market in the
secular bull, but who knows. Those secular cycles are more an
academic guess and with the size of the debt everything bubbles and
grand experiment of all the central banks who knows, I wouldn't be
married to that.
But otherwise my same comments apply that I discussed in that
interview. After a bull market ends and even if it's a cyclical
bear, most of the time you have new leadership in the next bull
market. Too many investors won't be able to let go of the past and
will pay too much attention to past leaders looking for re-entries
into those names once the bear market is over, when in reality
there will be new leadership where the far bigger gains will be
made. It's kind of like CSCO, it's still around, but after the 2000
- late 2002 bear market ended, there was new leadership and CSCO
wasn't one of them -it was better to focus on new
leadership.
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When you discuss being in
Youtube Video
Posted by simple_million on 21st of Feb 2022 at 08:40 pm
When you discuss being in a "bear market" you mean a cyclical bear in the middle of a secular bull, right? I rewatched your Big Picture YT video from last summer and was thinking that if an investor has a multi-year timeframe and wants to hold MSFT and AAPL for example, they could expect with some confidence that prices will get back to their highs as long as they're willing to wait a few years. Does that still make sense, given the market behavior over the last year? Thanks Matt, and great video as always!
The hope for everyone is
Posted by matt on 21st of Feb 2022 at 09:11 pm
The hope for everyone is that it will be a bear market in the secular bull, but who knows. Those secular cycles are more an academic guess and with the size of the debt everything bubbles and grand experiment of all the central banks who knows, I wouldn't be married to that.
But otherwise my same comments apply that I discussed in that interview. After a bull market ends and even if it's a cyclical bear, most of the time you have new leadership in the next bull market. Too many investors won't be able to let go of the past and will pay too much attention to past leaders looking for re-entries into those names once the bear market is over, when in reality there will be new leadership where the far bigger gains will be made. It's kind of like CSCO, it's still around, but after the 2000 - late 2002 bear market ended, there was new leadership and CSCO wasn't one of them -it was better to focus on new leadership.