Posted by timebandit on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 01:39 pm
Agree on the monthly. When I look at
this weekly chart, there is a recent intense red candle, but the MACD panel
tells a story of waning momentum since May of last year. All of the
faster MACDs have crossed below the red one, and their declines
have been accelerating. The red MACD (55,89,1) started turning down
this month.
Matt and Steve have been mentioning the weakening going on under
the surface since last summer. To me, this looks much more like a
classic topping pattern, unlike the concentrated Covid plunge in
Feb/Mar 2020. Tops take time to play out, so maybe that play has
another act before bull gives way to bear. We shall see.
UPDATE: I added a 15-year snapshot showing just how distorted
things have gotten the last two years. The MACDs never got above
100 until the fastest one nipped it in 2017. All but the red one
got above 100 in 2018 and late 2019/early 2020. Then the red one
went over 100 in late 2020. Talk about frothy.
Yes it's like a cancer - hidden under the surface for those who
may not be following the action on the broad market (individual
names). Honestly, I saw a top being put in on many names last
February/March (those names primarily consisted of stay at home
type names and/or Nasdaq names that were strictly revenue growth
which lacked profits or cash flow. A few of those names like Cathie
Wood was heavy long. It continued to spread slowly taking
more names lower. I noticed many smaller names simply getting
no attention - no willing buyers. Even true small/microcap
value names were being overlooked or disregarded partially due to
the spec frenzy into various crypto names and select coins and
SPACs. That fad also ended poorly as you can now plainly see.
What had primarily been left standing (supporting the major
indices) are what we refer to as generals (mega cap tech
names) and other select big cap tech (see HD and LOW for example).
Recently, they too have succumbed to selling pressure (some
more than others - see AMZN/NFLX for example). One other item
that I constantly heard last year, was cash is trash (crickets
now).
Thanks good observations. Also realize that even if let's say a
wave 5 was put in and this sell-off was wave one of a new 5-wave
downtrend of a bear market. Once complete even under a bear market
scenario you would get a fairly decent size ABC rally that retraces
50% of the correction off the highs if not 61.8%. therefore folks
would have time to Short a decent rally attempt like that or get
out of longs that they were stuck in. Again there's many scenarios
and this is an imortant week obviously to answer some questions
Posted by timebandit on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 02:18 pm
Yeah, I hear you, man. I told my father-in-law in late December
that we were in the fourth quarter of the bull and he should
protect his gains with stops (which I was pretty certain he didn't
have in place). He went in and talked to his Edward Jones broker,
who I just found out talked him out of it. I freaking lost my mind
when he told me this last week. I was planning to tell him to wait
for a bounce, just like you say, and cut his losses then.
Surprise surprise - I have never heard an Edward Jones broker
usher the word sell. They don't get paid when you move to
cash. With that said, the bulls still have a shot to recover
but taking some damn profits at that time would have been
prudent.
Its not just Edward Jones. I have accounts with UBS and JPM
wealth and they are no different. They use the tax excuse or "Time
in the market rather than timing the market" bullshit to talk you
out of this.
ha ha Steve were talking about that broker yesterday making
jokes that they have tape covering the sell button on their
keyboards, or that the sell button is located away in a vault that
only the Edward Jones or AG Edwards CEO can access - the brokers
have to convince the CEO to access that for him
Agree on the monthly. When
One can make a bull or bear case using any ...
Posted by timebandit on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 01:39 pm
Agree on the monthly. When I look at this weekly chart , there is a recent intense red candle, but the MACD panel tells a story of waning momentum since May of last year. All of the faster MACDs have crossed below the red one, and their declines have been accelerating. The red MACD (55,89,1) started turning down this month.
Matt and Steve have been mentioning the weakening going on under the surface since last summer. To me, this looks much more like a classic topping pattern, unlike the concentrated Covid plunge in Feb/Mar 2020. Tops take time to play out, so maybe that play has another act before bull gives way to bear. We shall see.
UPDATE: I added a 15-year snapshot showing just how distorted things have gotten the last two years. The MACDs never got above 100 until the fastest one nipped it in 2017. All but the red one got above 100 in 2018 and late 2019/early 2020. Then the red one went over 100 in late 2020. Talk about frothy.
Breadth Summary Comments
Posted by steve on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 02:01 pm
Yes it's like a cancer - hidden under the surface for those who may not be following the action on the broad market (individual names). Honestly, I saw a top being put in on many names last February/March (those names primarily consisted of stay at home type names and/or Nasdaq names that were strictly revenue growth which lacked profits or cash flow. A few of those names like Cathie Wood was heavy long. It continued to spread slowly taking more names lower. I noticed many smaller names simply getting no attention - no willing buyers. Even true small/microcap value names were being overlooked or disregarded partially due to the spec frenzy into various crypto names and select coins and SPACs. That fad also ended poorly as you can now plainly see. What had primarily been left standing (supporting the major indices) are what we refer to as generals (mega cap tech names) and other select big cap tech (see HD and LOW for example). Recently, they too have succumbed to selling pressure (some more than others - see AMZN/NFLX for example). One other item that I constantly heard last year, was cash is trash (crickets now).
Thanks good observations. Also realize
Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 01:57 pm
Thanks good observations. Also realize that even if let's say a wave 5 was put in and this sell-off was wave one of a new 5-wave downtrend of a bear market. Once complete even under a bear market scenario you would get a fairly decent size ABC rally that retraces 50% of the correction off the highs if not 61.8%. therefore folks would have time to Short a decent rally attempt like that or get out of longs that they were stuck in. Again there's many scenarios and this is an imortant week obviously to answer some questions
Yeah, I hear you, man.
Posted by timebandit on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 02:18 pm
Yeah, I hear you, man. I told my father-in-law in late December that we were in the fourth quarter of the bull and he should protect his gains with stops (which I was pretty certain he didn't have in place). He went in and talked to his Edward Jones broker, who I just found out talked him out of it. I freaking lost my mind when he told me this last week. I was planning to tell him to wait for a bounce, just like you say, and cut his losses then.
Surprise surprise - I have
Posted by steve on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 03:06 pm
Surprise surprise - I have never heard an Edward Jones broker usher the word sell. They don't get paid when you move to cash. With that said, the bulls still have a shot to recover but taking some damn profits at that time would have been prudent.
Its not just Edward Jones.
Posted by arun on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 03:47 pm
Its not just Edward Jones. I have accounts with UBS and JPM wealth and they are no different. They use the tax excuse or "Time in the market rather than timing the market" bullshit to talk you out of this.
ha ha Steve were talking
Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 03:43 pm
ha ha Steve were talking about that broker yesterday making jokes that they have tape covering the sell button on their keyboards, or that the sell button is located away in a vault that only the Edward Jones or AG Edwards CEO can access - the brokers have to convince the CEO to access that for him
here's your broker at AG
Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2022 at 03:51 pm
here's your broker at AG Edwards or Edwards Jones trying bring your sell order to his boss
https://youtu.be/HIQmRfqLz90?t=14