Wow I just noticed that the Breakout system on the ES may go
long today, so while the Trend/Pullback is exiting, the Breakout
looks like it's going to trigger
it still shows it will - remember ES doesn't close until 5 pm
EST, 1hr later than the cash market. It then remains closed for
1hr, today's daily candle opens at 6 pm EST tonight
again the Breakout is what it sounds like - it boughs overbought
conditions through resistance. it's not like the reversion to mean
which buys pullbacks, it buys extended moves. 90% of the trades
win. I have an RSI 2 filter that doesn't allow trades when the RSI
2 is, I think above 98 or 99%.
but other than it's difficult to try and filter out the trades
based on overbought because that's what it does, it buys breakout,
and breakouts will be overbought by nature
Posted by mitchell on 27th of Dec 2021 at 01:49 pm
Got it; makes sense Matt. I know its extra work, but hope
you consider providing both SPX + ES triggers - allows for more
trade signals. This has been quite a meltup. Happy holidays
all!
it's funny because none of these system trades are 'feel good'
or easy trades emotionally. Buying strong pullbacks when emotions
are high and CNCB is running end of world pieces makes the
reversion to mean trades hard to buy into emotionally, and the same
thing for these Breakout Trades, things are overbought and so it's
just as hard to do them too.
basically none of the system trades are easy to do at first
over thinking it man - simple answers is that they are 99% plus
correlated. But different prices. Just like UPRO and SPY are
different prices. The systems get their triggers from levels that I
set in various indicators - therefore different prices will cause
the RSI or MACD or CCI etc to be slightly different in SPY vs UPRO
vs SSO vs ES etc
Wow I just noticed that
ES systems update - Trend/Pullback looking to exit today
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2021 at 12:32 pm
Wow I just noticed that the Breakout system on the ES may go long today, so while the Trend/Pullback is exiting, the Breakout looks like it's going to trigger
Matt, just checking to see
Posted by rmoore100 on 27th of Dec 2021 at 04:13 pm
Matt, just checking to see if the ES Breakout System went long today. Thanks !!!!!!!
it still shows it will
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2021 at 04:43 pm
it still shows it will - remember ES doesn't close until 5 pm EST, 1hr later than the cash market. It then remains closed for 1hr, today's daily candle opens at 6 pm EST tonight
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2021 at 05:10 pm
Quite interesting. With market this
Posted by mitchell on 27th of Dec 2021 at 01:22 pm
Quite interesting. With market this extended, is Breakout prone to false signals in ST?
again the Breakout is what
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2021 at 01:25 pm
again the Breakout is what it sounds like - it boughs overbought conditions through resistance. it's not like the reversion to mean which buys pullbacks, it buys extended moves. 90% of the trades win. I have an RSI 2 filter that doesn't allow trades when the RSI 2 is, I think above 98 or 99%.
but other than it's difficult to try and filter out the trades based on overbought because that's what it does, it buys breakout, and breakouts will be overbought by nature
Got it; makes sense Matt.
Posted by mitchell on 27th of Dec 2021 at 01:49 pm
Got it; makes sense Matt. I know its extra work, but hope you consider providing both SPX + ES triggers - allows for more trade signals. This has been quite a meltup. Happy holidays all!
it's funny because none of
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2021 at 02:02 pm
it's funny because none of these system trades are 'feel good' or easy trades emotionally. Buying strong pullbacks when emotions are high and CNCB is running end of world pieces makes the reversion to mean trades hard to buy into emotionally, and the same thing for these Breakout Trades, things are overbought and so it's just as hard to do them too.
basically none of the system trades are easy to do at first
looks like the SPY version
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2021 at 01:13 pm
looks like the SPY version of the Breakout isn't going long....while the ES is, so which one to do LOL
I bought SPY when the
Posted by steverobin on 27th of Dec 2021 at 02:43 pm
I bought SPY when the ES trade went long. If the ES trade works how could SPY not?
I did a quick search
Posted by Trendie on 27th of Dec 2021 at 03:09 pm
I did a quick search and found a number of articles that explain non-correlation between indexes, ETFs, and futures contracts. Here's just one. etf - Why don't SPY, SPX, and the e-mini s&p 500 track perfectly with each other? - Personal Finance & Money Stack Exchange
over thinking it man -
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2021 at 03:14 pm
over thinking it man - simple answers is that they are 99% plus correlated. But different prices. Just like UPRO and SPY are different prices. The systems get their triggers from levels that I set in various indicators - therefore different prices will cause the RSI or MACD or CCI etc to be slightly different in SPY vs UPRO vs SSO vs ES etc
nice going man! taking that
Posted by matt on 27th of Dec 2021 at 03:05 pm
nice going man! taking that long trade from last week
I'll let you know if it goes long, but and we might also see the SPY breakout go long a day or a few days from now
Great!
Posted by steverobin on 27th of Dec 2021 at 03:06 pm
Great!