Gold Stocks Bear Market? As a goldbug I am hoping this downturn
since August is just a correction in a ongoing gold bull market.
However this recent crash in the gold stocks where they sliced
through major support levels and moving averages is quite
concerning and not the typical action of s correction in a bull
market. I read a report dated July 3 from a well respected
analyst whose opinion is that we are in a gold bear market which
started back in August. He makes some very compelling reasons as to
why gold stocks are no longer in a bull phase. I hope he isn't
right so I was curious as to what other members think as well as
Matt and Steve.
That's plunger's article, who is\was a perma-bull. Sounds like
he's changing his tune. He posts on Rambus's site who some
think is the preeminent chartist.
Appropriate name (plunger) of late for the Goldbugs
I just reviewed the daily chart of the miners and most look
similar with bounces to around their respective 9 day EMA's with
some of the royalty names (OR FNX RGLD) exhibiting just a little
relative strength. Can simply look at the ETF's including
SILJ. On Gold Futures, resistance to recapture overhead is
around 1805 to suggest more upside.
My advice is quite simple, trade what's in front of you in
accordance with YOUR PLAN as that's what matters - not
prognostications. Back in May, we noticed on GDX that the MA
ribbons were quite stretched and that price stalled near its .618
Fib - thus a good time to prune along with trailing stops.
Those who avoided bias simply would have taken profits and
adhered to stops and simply waited for a better opportunity (like
last week). Again, the key point here is what was YOUR exit
strategy? Why hope (hope is not a valid plan) - just trade
the charts based upon an evidence based approach in accordance with
your plan. This is why I'm constantly preaching about a plan
- that's what matters to you not some 3rd party opinions.
With that being said, there are some valid points made but he
seems to overlook the crash in March 2020 which took GDX down to
new lows and negated the entire move off the 2018 lows while Gold
put in a higher low - again what matters is what instruments you
are trading and your plan( it will vary on allocations and time
frames) You can incorporate some of the information into you
analysis going forward but the key is to develop a viable plan that
suits your objectives. Lastly, get rid of your bias and
adjust to the message of the market while allocating a small
percentage to this sector. Over the past many years, I have
seen many bugs hit the proverbial windshield as they were flying
blindly with hope and bias instead of developing and adhering to an
evidence based approach.
victorh - Steve made great points. Also this monthly chart
doesn't really say bear market to me, even the weekly though my 60
Stochastic is back below 50%. I don't trade monthly and
weekly charts but otherwise they really don't scream bear market to
me. Anyway very short term gold bounced off that support zone last
week with some divergence, I'd like to see gold make a higher high
and for the stocks to lead. July generally starts a more seasonably
favorable conditions for the metal, we'll see what transpires
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Gold Stocks Bear Market? As
Posted by victorh on 5th of Jul 2021 at 11:43 am
Gold Stocks Bear Market? As a goldbug I am hoping this downturn since August is just a correction in a ongoing gold bull market. However this recent crash in the gold stocks where they sliced through major support levels and moving averages is quite concerning and not the typical action of s correction in a bull market. I read a report dated July 3 from a well respected analyst whose opinion is that we are in a gold bear market which started back in August. He makes some very compelling reasons as to why gold stocks are no longer in a bull phase. I hope he isn't right so I was curious as to what other members think as well as Matt and Steve.
That's plunger's article, who is\was
Posted by roger on 5th of Jul 2021 at 04:56 pm
That's plunger's article, who is\was a perma-bull. Sounds like he's changing his tune. He posts on Rambus's site who some think is the preeminent chartist.
Appropriate name (plunger) of late
Posted by steve on 5th of Jul 2021 at 09:30 pm
Appropriate name (plunger) of late for the Goldbugs
I just reviewed the daily chart of the miners and most look similar with bounces to around their respective 9 day EMA's with some of the royalty names (OR FNX RGLD) exhibiting just a little relative strength. Can simply look at the ETF's including SILJ. On Gold Futures, resistance to recapture overhead is around 1805 to suggest more upside.
My advice is quite simple,
Posted by steve on 5th of Jul 2021 at 01:36 pm
My advice is quite simple, trade what's in front of you in accordance with YOUR PLAN as that's what matters - not prognostications. Back in May, we noticed on GDX that the MA ribbons were quite stretched and that price stalled near its .618 Fib - thus a good time to prune along with trailing stops. Those who avoided bias simply would have taken profits and adhered to stops and simply waited for a better opportunity (like last week). Again, the key point here is what was YOUR exit strategy? Why hope (hope is not a valid plan) - just trade the charts based upon an evidence based approach in accordance with your plan. This is why I'm constantly preaching about a plan - that's what matters to you not some 3rd party opinions.
With that being said, there are some valid points made but he seems to overlook the crash in March 2020 which took GDX down to new lows and negated the entire move off the 2018 lows while Gold put in a higher low - again what matters is what instruments you are trading and your plan( it will vary on allocations and time frames) You can incorporate some of the information into you analysis going forward but the key is to develop a viable plan that suits your objectives. Lastly, get rid of your bias and adjust to the message of the market while allocating a small percentage to this sector. Over the past many years, I have seen many bugs hit the proverbial windshield as they were flying blindly with hope and bias instead of developing and adhering to an evidence based approach.
SLV seasonality chart
Posted by matt on 5th of Jul 2021 at 02:07 pm
SLV seasonality chart
victorh - Steve made great
Posted by matt on 5th of Jul 2021 at 02:23 pm
victorh - Steve made great points. Also this monthly chart doesn't really say bear market to me, even the weekly though my 60 Stochastic is back below 50%. I don't trade monthly and weekly charts but otherwise they really don't scream bear market to me. Anyway very short term gold bounced off that support zone last week with some divergence, I'd like to see gold make a higher high and for the stocks to lead. July generally starts a more seasonably favorable conditions for the metal, we'll see what transpires