Video on Secular cycles and some fun projections

    Posted by matt on 7th of Jun 2021 at 06:34 pm

    I just recorded this video on that secular bull/bear cycle chart of mine, made some fun protections and correlations 

    Remember talking to an older

    Posted by roger on 7th of Jun 2021 at 09:23 pm

    Remember talking to an older gent about 2009 at the second bottom of the last secular bear and he said it would resolve in a hockey stick.  He was right because he was aware of the Kondratieff Cycles, I'm sure.  Nice visual and explanation Matt. 

    Whenever you see that type

    Posted by fundamentalvalues on 8th of Jun 2021 at 05:19 am

    Whenever you see that type of price decline and massive jobs are lost, it is a buy. The money gets made putting everyone back to work so to speak. Relatively speaking we are now at the other end of the risk/reward structure for the next few years. Meaning, it is likely to go higher unless we have another situation that nobody can plan for. This is why having a plan in place whether you are trading or investing is so important. 

    I personally like to trim some things that I bought in the crash periods whenever we have the euphoria periods and are at new highs. I will be looking at doing so if the market breaks out and runs up near the measured target areas. I use that cash for when we get nice corrections and/or crashes whenever they happen in different sectors or the markets in general. There are times when I will also take part of the profits and invest it in a long term growth story that I can hang onto. Again, I'm looking for healthy discounts when I enter. It takes patience, just have to take what they give, whenever they give it. I wrote this to benefit others, though also as a journal entry to encourage myself to stay with my plan which has worked for decades. 

    regarding that big picture chart

    Posted by matt on 8th of Jun 2021 at 01:17 pm

    regarding that big picture chart analysis - just remember those secular bull runs have 3  - 5 cyclical bear markets - look at the one in the 50's, you had a 2 year long bear market from 1956 - 1958. To me you have to continue trading your plan and get your trade signals off MUCH MUCH smaller time frames. that 90 year chart is more academic - yes if there's a big correction you could generally guess that it's a buy opportunity but for me I'll get my actual triggers off daily charts, I'm not going to stay in index funds and ETF's simply because the secular bull market hints that it may go on for another 12 years - I'm not willing to hold through 1 - 2 year small bear markets 

    Absolutley.  As well as those

    Posted by fredsaid on 8th of Jun 2021 at 01:35 pm

    Absolutley.  As well as those nasty 20-30 % quick drops like we'll probably get in the fall when they raise rates early.  What do you think about the summer doldrums and sell in May ?  Still hold EQ in 401k over summer ?

    Excellent FUNDY 

    Posted by retirefire on 8th of Jun 2021 at 06:26 am

    Excellent FUNDY 

    Hey Matt was that the

    Posted by RP on 7th of Jun 2021 at 07:00 pm

    Hey Matt was that the Kondratieff Cycle? Anyway thanks for that very interesting!

    Good stuff. Any new video

    Posted by jonesy85 on 7th of Jun 2021 at 09:10 pm

    Good stuff. Any new video updates on kiss.  Would be sweet to see the 2 day kiss stats!!


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