Posted by chartboy on 11th of May 2021 at 01:30 pm
ARKK’s holdings have been in bear in a market since @Feb
16th as has most of the related tech names. That is an undeniable
fact. There is no question it will end at some point, and bounce
along the way, but that doesnt change the fact that buying into a
bearish market on fundamentals is a very dangerous strategy that
has led to the demise of legions of people who became complacent
using that approach after long bull markets rolled over as everyone
has.
I've done pretty well being a dip buyer in QQQ and ARKK over the
last 5 years. Cathie has done 96% a year the on average the last 5
years even without buying dips. The world isn't going back to the
way it was before, growth tech just became parabolic short term and
needed to correct.
It is good to see some of my other "old hat" and other holdings
catch strength..just means the bull market is broadening in
strength.. Cathie's still up 79% even after the recent draw down
the past year. I'm just glad I wasn't sitting around for 5 years
waiting for gold or pressing short bets too long
See the QQQ, ARRK, and GLD comparisons
below..if you can't beat em, join em....QQQ is up in one year what
it took GLD 5 years to do. ARKK more than doubled GLD's 5 year
performance in one year..
The media and some others have been focusing on the last month
or so..lets look at a cycle. Will continue to cost average in these
or other strategies as opportunities present themselves. I'm not
worried about my "demise" as I know how to allocate capital. I have
good paid for positions just from profits alone. Anyone that has a
shred of an idea of how to trade or invest protects capital well.
Facts are facts.
Posted by chartboy on 12th of May 2021 at 08:30 am
The statement that the market is broadening in strength has no
basis in fact. The numbers do not lie, it is narrowing. What it is
doing however is rotating into late cycle names. More relevant to
ARKK, the relative strength of technology has made a major top that
is very strongly statistical correlated to very long periods of
relative underperfomance (decade +). In fact, it is virtually
identical to the peak of relative performance that occurred in
early 2000 and led to tech never surpassing those levels for 15
years and only after draw downs exceeding well of 50% in most tech
ETFs like ARKK.
Remember, most investors thought it was “different this time” in
2000 as well.
So ARKK being up 482% the last five years is all going to be
erased now lol..the point is the corrections are buying
opportunities..what about the QQQ, it is going under too? Those
companies run the world and are cash cows growing ridiculously as I
showed in the previous performance, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL,
etc...40% a year for the fund on average the last 5 years..
the companies in ARKK are not 2000 era tech companies. Tesla,
Square,Teledoc, Roku, Zoom, Zillow, Spotify..they are here to stay
and running the forward looking business world...some of them have
become an essential part of our world now for personal and business
use..last post, facts are facts. The cash you would have made could
fan you much better than those charts...also, the likelihood of any
major breakdown back to back years is very improbable..we would
need another pandemic or aliens to land here...That is
all.
ARKK’s holdings have been in
Dude in the middle bought ARKK over $120.
Posted by chartboy on 11th of May 2021 at 01:30 pm
ARKK’s holdings have been in bear in a market since @Feb 16th as has most of the related tech names. That is an undeniable fact. There is no question it will end at some point, and bounce along the way, but that doesnt change the fact that buying into a bearish market on fundamentals is a very dangerous strategy that has led to the demise of legions of people who became complacent using that approach after long bull markets rolled over as everyone has.
I've done pretty well being
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 12th of May 2021 at 08:07 am
I've done pretty well being a dip buyer in QQQ and ARKK over the last 5 years. Cathie has done 96% a year the on average the last 5 years even without buying dips. The world isn't going back to the way it was before, growth tech just became parabolic short term and needed to correct.
It is good to see some of my other "old hat" and other holdings catch strength..just means the bull market is broadening in strength.. Cathie's still up 79% even after the recent draw down the past year. I'm just glad I wasn't sitting around for 5 years waiting for gold or pressing short bets too long See the QQQ, ARRK, and GLD comparisons below..if you can't beat em, join em....QQQ is up in one year what it took GLD 5 years to do. ARKK more than doubled GLD's 5 year performance in one year..
The media and some others have been focusing on the last month or so..lets look at a cycle. Will continue to cost average in these or other strategies as opportunities present themselves. I'm not worried about my "demise" as I know how to allocate capital. I have good paid for positions just from profits alone. Anyone that has a shred of an idea of how to trade or invest protects capital well. Facts are facts.
The statement that the market
Posted by chartboy on 12th of May 2021 at 08:30 am
The statement that the market is broadening in strength has no basis in fact. The numbers do not lie, it is narrowing. What it is doing however is rotating into late cycle names. More relevant to ARKK, the relative strength of technology has made a major top that is very strongly statistical correlated to very long periods of relative underperfomance (decade +). In fact, it is virtually identical to the peak of relative performance that occurred in early 2000 and led to tech never surpassing those levels for 15 years and only after draw downs exceeding well of 50% in most tech ETFs like ARKK.
Remember, most investors thought it was “different this time” in 2000 as well.
So ARKK being up 482%
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 12th of May 2021 at 08:50 am
So ARKK being up 482% the last five years is all going to be erased now lol..the point is the corrections are buying opportunities..what about the QQQ, it is going under too? Those companies run the world and are cash cows growing ridiculously as I showed in the previous performance, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, etc...40% a year for the fund on average the last 5 years..
the companies in ARKK are not 2000 era tech companies. Tesla, Square,Teledoc, Roku, Zoom, Zillow, Spotify..they are here to stay and running the forward looking business world...some of them have become an essential part of our world now for personal and business use..last post, facts are facts. The cash you would have made could fan you much better than those charts...also, the likelihood of any major breakdown back to back years is very improbable..we would need another pandemic or aliens to land here...That is all.
I'm appreciative of both your
Posted by retirefire on 12th of May 2021 at 08:42 am
I'm appreciative of both your commentary here gentlemen.