I've had an idea, look at creating some new reversion to mean
type trades but using the most recent DVT as a stop. As you know
the SPY systems are mostly reversion to mean, however I removed a
lot of the shallow pullback type reversion to mean sub
systems because they were prone once in a while to getting stuck in
a bad trade, this greatly reduced the number of SPY system
trades.
So an ideas is I could bring a lot of those back or use
something simple such as a 4 or 5 length %R indicator getting
oversold to signal a trade. It would have to have the MA ribbon in
a bullish configuration along with the BPT MA Deluxe above the
ribbon, and that BPT MA Deluxe would need to be red for at least 1
or 2 bars. Price would also be required to have NOT hit the most
recent DVT. As you know when price is in an trendline, when
the BPT MA deluxe is above the ribbon, every time it pinches some
or turns red above the ribbon, those create additional buy
opportunities in the trend at hand. Anyway every entry would simply
use the most recent DVT as a stop, so there's no 3 and 4 and 5
entries, the system would not get stuck in bad trades, simply would
hit the most recent DVT. I could see may 2 entries maximum. anyway
here's a short rough video I made showing this
umm...I mean I would still keep the other SPY reversion to mean
systems. You would just have more systems trades. The ones
built off this KISS format would have stops based off the DVT's,
however I would not throw out all the other deeper reversion to
mean trades that don't have stops. You would have more system
trades basically. So if folks are still confused by the other
reversion to mean trades they still will be confused
that's great to hear! And to me it's the only way one should
approach systems, adapt/adjust and add improvements as you learn
new things. I think the wrong thing to do is to stay
static.
you wouldn't believe how many people have written over the years
who are not customers of BPT but are inquiring and ask about the
SPY systems, they ask something like: So do you have real time
stats for the past 20 years, can you prove to me you have not made
adjustments over the last 10 years and has been running non stop
with no changes?
it's like okay in perfect world would it be nice to have created
a system 10 years ago that was perfect and I never needed to modify
or add new improvements to, yeah but this is real life. And
many of these people I write back to will not subscribe because I
tell them that I made adjustments and improvements to the systems,
they were not locked in 5 and 10 years ago, crazy.
re: it's like okay in perfect world would it be nice to have
created a system 10 years ago that was perfect and I never needed
to modify or add new improvements to, yeah but this is real life.
And many of these people I write back to will not subscribe
because I tell them that I made adjustments and improvements to the
systems, they were not locked in 5 and 10 years ago, crazy.
My comment: Sounds like people who want zero responsibility for
their decisions. You're better off not having them for subscribers
as they aren't really traders. These types are better off just
following a 401k KISS system. I think it is great that you share
what you are working on and that it isn't perfect. It shows that
you are pursuing growth ongoing. Thanks for your work Matt
Reversion to mean trade idea using DVT's
Posted by matt on 19th of Nov 2020 at 11:53 am
I've had an idea, look at creating some new reversion to mean type trades but using the most recent DVT as a stop. As you know the SPY systems are mostly reversion to mean, however I removed a lot of the shallow pullback type reversion to mean sub systems because they were prone once in a while to getting stuck in a bad trade, this greatly reduced the number of SPY system trades.
So an ideas is I could bring a lot of those back or use something simple such as a 4 or 5 length %R indicator getting oversold to signal a trade. It would have to have the MA ribbon in a bullish configuration along with the BPT MA Deluxe above the ribbon, and that BPT MA Deluxe would need to be red for at least 1 or 2 bars. Price would also be required to have NOT hit the most recent DVT. As you know when price is in an trendline, when the BPT MA deluxe is above the ribbon, every time it pinches some or turns red above the ribbon, those create additional buy opportunities in the trend at hand. Anyway every entry would simply use the most recent DVT as a stop, so there's no 3 and 4 and 5 entries, the system would not get stuck in bad trades, simply would hit the most recent DVT. I could see may 2 entries maximum. anyway here's a short rough video I made showing this
http://bpt-files.s3.amazonaws.com/phptqvb1v
Great idea Matt. Much simpler
Posted by mborder1 on 19th of Nov 2020 at 03:15 pm
Great idea Matt. Much simpler and much easier to follow and will remove confusion. Thanks
umm...I mean I would still
Posted by matt on 19th of Nov 2020 at 03:16 pm
umm...I mean I would still keep the other SPY reversion to mean systems. You would just have more systems trades. The ones built off this KISS format would have stops based off the DVT's, however I would not throw out all the other deeper reversion to mean trades that don't have stops. You would have more system trades basically. So if folks are still confused by the other reversion to mean trades they still will be confused
I really like these videos
Posted by srusso1 on 19th of Nov 2020 at 01:08 pm
I really like these videos and the Idea of constantly working to improve these systems .
Sean R.
that's great to hear! And
Posted by matt on 19th of Nov 2020 at 01:21 pm
that's great to hear! And to me it's the only way one should approach systems, adapt/adjust and add improvements as you learn new things. I think the wrong thing to do is to stay static.
you wouldn't believe how many people have written over the years who are not customers of BPT but are inquiring and ask about the SPY systems, they ask something like: So do you have real time stats for the past 20 years, can you prove to me you have not made adjustments over the last 10 years and has been running non stop with no changes?
it's like okay in perfect world would it be nice to have created a system 10 years ago that was perfect and I never needed to modify or add new improvements to, yeah but this is real life. And many of these people I write back to will not subscribe because I tell them that I made adjustments and improvements to the systems, they were not locked in 5 and 10 years ago, crazy.
re: it's like okay in
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 19th of Nov 2020 at 01:46 pm
re: it's like okay in perfect world would it be nice to have created a system 10 years ago that was perfect and I never needed to modify or add new improvements to, yeah but this is real life. And many of these people I write back to will not subscribe because I tell them that I made adjustments and improvements to the systems, they were not locked in 5 and 10 years ago, crazy.
My comment: Sounds like people who want zero responsibility for their decisions. You're better off not having them for subscribers as they aren't really traders. These types are better off just following a 401k KISS system. I think it is great that you share what you are working on and that it isn't perfect. It shows that you are pursuing growth ongoing. Thanks for your work Matt
This is great, I'd love
Posted by focus175 on 19th of Nov 2020 at 12:06 pm
This is great, I'd love to get more Spy trade opportunities