As you know two SPY systems closed out yesterday the QE BTS
which was long for a month, and the Stochastic short. The QE BTS
made very nice money 85% on the 2nd entry call option. Even the
Short made a tiny bit. you can see these two systems close
yesterday from the image.
We have one sub system open the Trend/Pullback long. It's
possible this system will also exit today! That said, this is
the aggressive exit. The previous version of this system would not
even be close to exiting. The old version could hold trades long
and thus had higher profits but was also vulnerable to getting
trapped in a bad trade once in a while. One option to consider is
exiting 1/2 the position today if this new version exits, then
holding part or the other 1/2 with a tight stop at its entry price,
that way guaranteed a profit from the 1/2 sold today.
If I do that I may sell the option out and simply keep the
ETF shares with the stop at entry. Again I have not made that
determination and I would like to see the SPX break out over it's
channel which so far it has not. You could also just choose to exit
it all if the system closes out today.
also regarding that Trend/Pullback system, as you know I made
some changed after that March sell off earlier this year to really
tighten up the systems, adding additional exit opportunities etc, I
went over each sub system and I think they've been doing great
since summer when the systems started to trade again.
On this Trend/Pullback, here's a few images that show you the
difference between the old Trend/Pullback and the updated one I
made after that March sell of.
The first image, the modified one is at top, the original one is
at bottom. You can see how the original one get stuck in that late
Feb trade and held through that sell off finally closing out in
late April. You can also see that that it tends to hold trades
longer, compare the two and you can see that. The newer one
at top you can see exits on the bounce in late Feb thus avoiding
that sell off, but doesn't catch those nice 2 and 3 week or month
long trades, it closes out after a simple reversion to mean move
back above the 8 SMA.
So the newer one has less risk since it can exit easier, but it
also makes less money, about 1/2 over the old version because it
doesn't get to hold the nice winning trades, see the second image
showing the statistics of the original vs the newer one.
that said I've been meaning to go back to the new system and I
think I can add some additional filters and stops to allow it to
still catch the nice trending moves that the old one caught but
still have the draw down protection of the newer one. One
option would be if the BPT MA is above the ribbons (like it is now)
then allow the system to use the old exit, but also place a DVT
stop at that low. I could also do a combination such as
selling 1/2 once the reversion to mean occurs where the newer one
exits and then hold the rest with a stop, that would then exit by
the old rules
anyway just sharing some things with you. that's why I sold 1/2
today and keeping the other 1/2.
Posted by tradeit007 on 26th of Oct 2020 at 09:30 am
Hey Matt, I've subscribed to numerous newsletters in the past,
and NO ONE puts forth the effort to educate and share knowledge
with their subscribers like you do. And remarkably, you do it every
day. Thank you!! I can't say it often enough.
I couldn't agree more. I subscribe to several newsletters and
quite a few institutional research services. I've gotten more
actionable ideas from
BreakPointrades.comthan any
other service. I would never give it up.
thank you very much for the kind words and feedback! We
are not perfect by any means but we do the work, put in a lot of
effort, and like you said it's nearly every day, not a newsletter a
week like quite a few places I know
The Trend/Pullback sub system is closing out and going
back to cash. That said I'm going to close the option out and leave
the ETF open with a stop at entry. sending out email in a few
moments.
FYI that open SPY system exit condition has been long on the
pullback. It will only come back on a rally back up. Again if
something changes I'll let you know
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Open SPY system trade comments, could exit today
Posted by matt on 23rd of Oct 2020 at 09:48 am
As you know two SPY systems closed out yesterday the QE BTS which was long for a month, and the Stochastic short. The QE BTS made very nice money 85% on the 2nd entry call option. Even the Short made a tiny bit. you can see these two systems close yesterday from the image.
We have one sub system open the Trend/Pullback long. It's possible this system will also exit today! That said, this is the aggressive exit. The previous version of this system would not even be close to exiting. The old version could hold trades long and thus had higher profits but was also vulnerable to getting trapped in a bad trade once in a while. One option to consider is exiting 1/2 the position today if this new version exits, then holding part or the other 1/2 with a tight stop at its entry price, that way guaranteed a profit from the 1/2 sold today. If I do that I may sell the option out and simply keep the ETF shares with the stop at entry. Again I have not made that determination and I would like to see the SPX break out over it's channel which so far it has not. You could also just choose to exit it all if the system closes out today.
Good stuff Matt. Thank you
Posted by simpsongc on 25th of Oct 2020 at 06:29 pm
Good stuff Matt. Thank you your continued efforts.
also regarding that Trend/Pullback system,
Posted by matt on 23rd of Oct 2020 at 04:17 pm
also regarding that Trend/Pullback system, as you know I made some changed after that March sell off earlier this year to really tighten up the systems, adding additional exit opportunities etc, I went over each sub system and I think they've been doing great since summer when the systems started to trade again.
On this Trend/Pullback, here's a few images that show you the difference between the old Trend/Pullback and the updated one I made after that March sell of.
The first image, the modified one is at top, the original one is at bottom. You can see how the original one get stuck in that late Feb trade and held through that sell off finally closing out in late April. You can also see that that it tends to hold trades longer, compare the two and you can see that. The newer one at top you can see exits on the bounce in late Feb thus avoiding that sell off, but doesn't catch those nice 2 and 3 week or month long trades, it closes out after a simple reversion to mean move back above the 8 SMA.
So the newer one has less risk since it can exit easier, but it also makes less money, about 1/2 over the old version because it doesn't get to hold the nice winning trades, see the second image showing the statistics of the original vs the newer one.
that said I've been meaning to go back to the new system and I think I can add some additional filters and stops to allow it to still catch the nice trending moves that the old one caught but still have the draw down protection of the newer one. One option would be if the BPT MA is above the ribbons (like it is now) then allow the system to use the old exit, but also place a DVT stop at that low. I could also do a combination such as selling 1/2 once the reversion to mean occurs where the newer one exits and then hold the rest with a stop, that would then exit by the old rules
anyway just sharing some things with you. that's why I sold 1/2 today and keeping the other 1/2.
Hey Matt, I've subscribed to
Posted by tradeit007 on 26th of Oct 2020 at 09:30 am
Hey Matt, I've subscribed to numerous newsletters in the past, and NO ONE puts forth the effort to educate and share knowledge with their subscribers like you do. And remarkably, you do it every day. Thank you!! I can't say it often enough.
I couldn't agree more. I
Posted by pkrsek on 26th of Oct 2020 at 12:45 pm
I couldn't agree more. I subscribe to several newsletters and quite a few institutional research services. I've gotten more actionable ideas from BreakPointrades.comthan any other service. I would never give it up.
thank you very much for
Posted by matt on 26th of Oct 2020 at 09:41 am
thank you very much for the kind words and feedback! We are not perfect by any means but we do the work, put in a lot of effort, and like you said it's nearly every day, not a newsletter a week like quite a few places I know
Solid information thank you Matt.
Posted by mundy on 23rd of Oct 2020 at 04:38 pm
Solid information thank you Matt.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR HARD
Posted by johnpaw1 on 23rd of Oct 2020 at 04:25 pm
THANK YOU FOR YOUR HARD WORK , MATT
The Trend/Pullback sub system is
Posted by matt on 23rd of Oct 2020 at 03:55 pm
The Trend/Pullback sub system is closing out and going back to cash. That said I'm going to close the option out and leave the ETF open with a stop at entry. sending out email in a few moments.
thanks matt
Posted by RP on 23rd of Oct 2020 at 04:04 pm
thanks matt
FYI that open SPY system
Posted by matt on 23rd of Oct 2020 at 11:56 am
FYI that open SPY system exit condition has been long on the pullback. It will only come back on a rally back up. Again if something changes I'll let you know