In Steve's discussion tonight Steve discussed these
possibilities, here's a graphical representation of what he
meant.
The first image shows the FANG, an A move down from the highs B
bounce lower high bear flag, then a move down in C.
The second image shows the other scenario where the first move
down off the highs was A, and we are in the midst of a B wave
bounce that is not finished (we've had micro wave a up and b down
and this would call for a c move up that takes out the highs from
yesterday to complete the B wave bounce, then we get the finally C
wave down from higher prices.
I kind of like the second option because to me it might cause
the most confusion to the masses vs just being an easy sell down in
C. Think about it, a higher low here then rally up for that c
of B would probably suck in a bunch of sucker bulls who then get
trapped on the C wave down once the B wave is complete. To me this
scenario causes the most pain over the simple first scenario.
Yet a 3rd scenario I'm not showing would be a more complex
triangle or consolidation.
The more complex scenario (2) seems reasonable considering a
contentious election is approaching. I think the wild cards
are the vaccine and stimulus bill.
I generally think what causes the most confusion for the masses
and causes the majority to bet wrong in the short term is the one
that generally plays out.
but again as Steve and I say, we're just throwing out options,
we don't have a crystal ball. The guys out there that make
bold predictions are generally those don't trade anyway. It's corny
but like Bruce Lee's documentary Be Like Water, basically monitor,
adapt/adjust to what's in front of you and don't be locked into one
scenario that you think must happen, the market can do anything it
wants to. Have your triggers and your exit plan always
Posted by fredsaid on 18th of Sep 2020 at 01:34 am
Thanks Guys - must always consider the pain trade. The big
'B' in the 2nd scenario or complex version of the same which takes
longer is sure to cause the most pain since the masses are trying
to short and must be foiled.
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More details of the abc
Posted by matt on 17th of Sep 2020 at 08:16 pm
In Steve's discussion tonight Steve discussed these possibilities, here's a graphical representation of what he meant.
The first image shows the FANG, an A move down from the highs B bounce lower high bear flag, then a move down in C.
The second image shows the other scenario where the first move down off the highs was A, and we are in the midst of a B wave bounce that is not finished (we've had micro wave a up and b down and this would call for a c move up that takes out the highs from yesterday to complete the B wave bounce, then we get the finally C wave down from higher prices.
I kind of like the second option because to me it might cause the most confusion to the masses vs just being an easy sell down in C. Think about it, a higher low here then rally up for that c of B would probably suck in a bunch of sucker bulls who then get trapped on the C wave down once the B wave is complete. To me this scenario causes the most pain over the simple first scenario.
Yet a 3rd scenario I'm not showing would be a more complex triangle or consolidation.
anyway hope that this hels
The more complex scenario (2)
Posted by jared95 on 18th of Sep 2020 at 09:15 am
The more complex scenario (2) seems reasonable considering a contentious election is approaching. I think the wild cards are the vaccine and stimulus bill.
I generally think what causes
Posted by matt on 18th of Sep 2020 at 09:45 am
I generally think what causes the most confusion for the masses and causes the majority to bet wrong in the short term is the one that generally plays out.
but again as Steve and I say, we're just throwing out options, we don't have a crystal ball. The guys out there that make bold predictions are generally those don't trade anyway. It's corny but like Bruce Lee's documentary Be Like Water, basically monitor, adapt/adjust to what's in front of you and don't be locked into one scenario that you think must happen, the market can do anything it wants to. Have your triggers and your exit plan always
Thanks Guys - must always
Posted by fredsaid on 18th of Sep 2020 at 01:34 am
Thanks Guys - must always consider the pain trade. The big 'B' in the 2nd scenario or complex version of the same which takes longer is sure to cause the most pain since the masses are trying to short and must be foiled.