Actually that's a very nice chart and thanks for sharing - while
I prefer to refrain from broad forecasting (too many uncertainties
for a trader), that option is certainly one that has credence.
What will be telling is the nature an extent of the pullback
that appears that began this week. Good chart to save as a
point of reference among some others.
Big factors will be how quickly the economy is able to recover
which will be dependent upon Covid 19, etc.
Keep an open mind and continue to trade what's in front of you
and we will do our best to navigate along the way.
On June 11th I posted the following in regards to market outlook
in the weeks ahead:
"Big factors will be how quickly the economy is able to recover
which will be dependent upon Covid 19, etc"
That statement remains very true today - the recent reported
increases in Covid 19 has raised questions as to the nature of the
economy's recovery and have led to some increased
volatility.
Continue to remain nimble and trade what's in front of
you.
As a physician with extensive contacts across administrators
from different health systems in NJ PA and also multiple
specialists across the country - the most common thing I hear is -
THIS FEAR IS OVERBLOWN- A geriatrician friend of mine reports most
of the deaths as covid without adequate data, most hospitals have
ran empty this entire time. The only hospitals that got overwhelmed
in Northeast are in Brooklyn. NYC Bellvue med ctr, north jersey
hospitals. My friends in southern states for example Austin TX
havent seen even one covid case in few hospitals (other friends in
Austin did see some cases)
Every nut case out there starting from epidemiologists,IT
engineers, laymen, medai have been giving their own theories.
Mortality is less than 0.05% in NYC.... Bottomline - this virus is
not as bad as it has been projected. But i am glad Mother earth got
a break from all the pollution
@Arun - You said "Mortality is less than 0.05% in NYC".
So why does the official NYC data show 17,300 confirmed COVID
deaths and 205,405 cases - an 8% mortality rate. Am I
getting my definitions mixed up?
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
One thing that is not considered in govt stats is the number of
actual infections including asymptomatic ones. This site
gives some background to the NY situation. They calculated
death rate at 0.28% and under age 65 rate at 0.09%. Link:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
Posted by bestgolf on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:56 pm
There was a good nationwide antibody study done in Spain last
month that showed about 5% of population was exposed to covid 19
and death rate was a little over 1% there I doubt our death rate is
much lower then theirs
Plandemic. The 1918 and the 1950's HK flu - many more
deaths, no treatment modalities, and never shut down a whole
country. We need to be conservative but take measured
risks without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Posted by bestgolf on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:22 pm
We should have never shut down the whole country if we took the
right measures from the start. We should have followed the South
Korea model to deal with the virus. They test aggressively from day
one, population adjusted they did about 1 million tests the first 4
weeks after covid entered their borders we did only 200
tests. They contact traced all positive cases aggressively we did
nothing close to that. No surprise they never had to shut down
their economy and their total deaths is less then 300
from covid our numbers on daily basis are almost 3x higher,
that's is just ridiculous & embarrassing . Not to mention
98% of people now wear masks there in public here about only about
50%.
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Actually that's a very nice
Ultra long term Elliott Wave count for the S&P500. Looks ...
Posted by steve on 11th of Jun 2020 at 06:19 pm
Actually that's a very nice chart and thanks for sharing - while I prefer to refrain from broad forecasting (too many uncertainties for a trader), that option is certainly one that has credence. What will be telling is the nature an extent of the pullback that appears that began this week. Good chart to save as a point of reference among some others.
Big factors will be how quickly the economy is able to recover which will be dependent upon Covid 19, etc.
Keep an open mind and continue to trade what's in front of you and we will do our best to navigate along the way.
On June 11th I posted
Posted by steve on 27th of Jun 2020 at 11:54 am
On June 11th I posted the following in regards to market outlook in the weeks ahead:
"Big factors will be how quickly the economy is able to recover which will be dependent upon Covid 19, etc"
That statement remains very true today - the recent reported increases in Covid 19 has raised questions as to the nature of the economy's recovery and have led to some increased volatility.
Continue to remain nimble and trade what's in front of you.
As a physician with extensive
Posted by arun on 11th of Jun 2020 at 06:46 pm
As a physician with extensive contacts across administrators from different health systems in NJ PA and also multiple specialists across the country - the most common thing I hear is - THIS FEAR IS OVERBLOWN- A geriatrician friend of mine reports most of the deaths as covid without adequate data, most hospitals have ran empty this entire time. The only hospitals that got overwhelmed in Northeast are in Brooklyn. NYC Bellvue med ctr, north jersey hospitals. My friends in southern states for example Austin TX havent seen even one covid case in few hospitals (other friends in Austin did see some cases)
Every nut case out there starting from epidemiologists,IT engineers, laymen, medai have been giving their own theories. Mortality is less than 0.05% in NYC.... Bottomline - this virus is not as bad as it has been projected. But i am glad Mother earth got a break from all the pollution
@Arun - You said "Mortality
Posted by z0ned on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:17 pm
@Arun - You said "Mortality is less than 0.05% in NYC". So why does the official NYC data show 17,300 confirmed COVID deaths and 205,405 cases - an 8% mortality rate. Am I getting my definitions mixed up? https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
One thing that is not
Posted by pwb8 on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:37 pm
One thing that is not considered in govt stats is the number of actual infections including asymptomatic ones. This site gives some background to the NY situation. They calculated death rate at 0.28% and under age 65 rate at 0.09%. Link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
There was a good nationwide
Posted by bestgolf on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:56 pm
There was a good nationwide antibody study done in Spain last month that showed about 5% of population was exposed to covid 19 and death rate was a little over 1% there I doubt our death rate is much lower then theirs
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/16/21259492/covid-antibodies-spain-serology-study-coronavirus-immunity
Can we PLEASE stop cluttering
Posted by victorh on 11th of Jun 2020 at 09:00 pm
Can we PLEASE stop cluttering up this board with talks about the virus and politics. There are tons of other discussion boards for all that. Thanks
Yeah I agree. I only
Posted by arun on 11th of Jun 2020 at 09:02 pm
Yeah I agree. I only said it after Steve mentioned about recovery from virus. In my opinion it’s just another distraction
Plandemic. The 1918 and
Posted by ssaffer on 11th of Jun 2020 at 07:24 pm
Plandemic. The 1918 and the 1950's HK flu - many more deaths, no treatment modalities, and never shut down a whole country. We need to be conservative but take measured risks without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
We should have never shut
Posted by bestgolf on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:22 pm
We should have never shut down the whole country if we took the right measures from the start. We should have followed the South Korea model to deal with the virus. They test aggressively from day one, population adjusted they did about 1 million tests the first 4 weeks after covid entered their borders we did only 200 tests. They contact traced all positive cases aggressively we did nothing close to that. No surprise they never had to shut down their economy and their total deaths is less then 300 from covid our numbers on daily basis are almost 3x higher, that's is just ridiculous & embarrassing . Not to mention 98% of people now wear masks there in public here about only about 50%.