Ultra long term Elliott Wave

    Posted by goldnice on 11th of Jun 2020 at 05:42 pm

    Ultra long term Elliott Wave count for the S&P500. Looks like we just got the {Wave B} corrective top. When you look at charts you also have to consider the psychology of the market and when plain old millionaires are calling billionaire Warren Buffet a washed up old has been on national television and much worse on social media and 10 year olds are retiring from "FortNight" to buy fractional shares of TSLA on "RobinHood" you knew Wall Streets time was almost up! 

    Goldnice - What I know

    Posted by z0ned on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:19 pm

    Goldnice - What I know about Elliot waves can be written on a postage stamp.   What makes this the "highest probability" wave count?   How do you calculate probabilities of wave counts?

    a few years I studied

    Posted by erikvik on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:28 pm

    a few years I studied Elliot Wave as the panacea for all trading.  What I learned after a while is that there is a count...then if it doesn't work, there is a rule for that, like the wave is subdividing etc.  Then if that doesn't work there is an alternative count etc.  after a while I realized its quite the crapshoot, and the rules are just made to fit about anything that happens but is not great for predicting anything, other than five waves up is impulsive and ABC's are corrective.  If one could take that away as a lesson...not too bad.



    Actually that's a very nice

    Posted by steve on 11th of Jun 2020 at 06:19 pm

    Actually that's a very nice chart and thanks for sharing - while I prefer to refrain from broad forecasting (too many uncertainties for a trader), that option is certainly one that has credence.  What will be telling is the nature an extent of the pullback that appears that began this week.   Good chart to save as a point of reference among some others.  

    Big factors will be how quickly the economy is able to recover which will be dependent upon Covid 19, etc. 

    Keep an open mind and continue to trade what's in front of you and we will do our best to navigate along the way. 

    On June 11th I posted

    Posted by steve on 27th of Jun 2020 at 11:54 am

    On June 11th I posted the following in regards to market outlook in the weeks ahead:

    "Big factors will be how quickly the economy is able to recover which will be dependent upon Covid 19, etc"

    That statement remains very true today - the recent reported increases in Covid 19 has raised questions as to the nature of the economy's recovery and have led to some increased volatility. 

    Continue to remain nimble and trade what's in front of you. 

    As a physician with extensive

    Posted by arun on 11th of Jun 2020 at 06:46 pm

    As a physician with extensive contacts across administrators from different health systems in NJ PA and also multiple specialists across the country - the most common thing I hear is - THIS FEAR IS OVERBLOWN- A geriatrician friend of mine reports most of the deaths as covid without adequate data, most hospitals have ran empty this entire time. The only hospitals that got overwhelmed in Northeast are in Brooklyn. NYC Bellvue med ctr, north jersey hospitals. My friends in southern states for example Austin TX havent seen even one covid case in few hospitals (other friends in Austin did see some cases) 

    Every nut case out there starting from epidemiologists,IT engineers, laymen, medai have been giving their own theories. Mortality is less than 0.05% in NYC.... Bottomline - this virus is not as bad as it has been projected. But i am glad Mother earth got a break from all the pollution

    @Arun - You said "Mortality

    Posted by z0ned on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:17 pm

    @Arun - You said "Mortality is less than 0.05% in NYC".   So why does the official NYC data show 17,300 confirmed COVID deaths and 205,405 cases - an 8% mortality rate.   Am I getting my definitions mixed up?    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

    One thing that is not

    Posted by pwb8 on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:37 pm

    One thing that is not considered in govt stats is the number of actual infections including asymptomatic ones.  This site gives some background to the NY situation.  They calculated death rate at 0.28% and under age 65 rate at 0.09%. Link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

    There was a good nationwide

    Posted by bestgolf on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:56 pm

    There was a good nationwide antibody study done in Spain last month that showed about 5% of population was exposed to covid 19 and death rate was a little over 1% there I doubt our death rate is much lower then theirs

    https://www.vox.com/2020/5/16/21259492/covid-antibodies-spain-serology-study-coronavirus-immunity

    Can we PLEASE stop cluttering

    Posted by victorh on 11th of Jun 2020 at 09:00 pm

    Can we PLEASE stop cluttering up this board with talks about the virus and politics. There are tons of other discussion boards for all that. Thanks

    Yeah I agree. I only

    Posted by arun on 11th of Jun 2020 at 09:02 pm

    Yeah I agree. I only said it after Steve mentioned about recovery from virus. In my opinion it’s just  another distraction

    Plandemic.   The 1918 and

    Posted by ssaffer on 11th of Jun 2020 at 07:24 pm

    Plandemic.   The 1918 and the 1950's HK flu - many more deaths, no treatment modalities,  and never shut down a whole country.    We need to be conservative but take measured risks without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.    

    We should have never shut

    Posted by bestgolf on 11th of Jun 2020 at 08:22 pm

    We should have never shut down the whole country if we took the right measures from the start. We should have followed the South Korea model to deal with the virus. They test aggressively from day one, population adjusted they did about 1 million tests the first 4 weeks after  covid entered their borders  we did only 200 tests. They contact traced all positive cases aggressively we did nothing close to that. No surprise they never had to shut down their economy and their  total deaths is less then 300  from covid our numbers on daily basis are almost 3x higher, that's is just ridiculous & embarrassing .  Not to mention 98% of people now wear masks there in public here about only about 50%.

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