Above are a few charts mapping the recent advance. It can
extend but has now met all the requirements for a completed
structure. Alternate option is a minor correction of
the recent advance only. More tomorrow evening.
Respect the prevailing trend, No need to pick exact tops as best
to wait for confirmation (personally have some hedges in place once
again following today's afternoon rally) My hedges have been
focused on QQQ and XBI will trade them after moves accordingly
Many newbie Robinhood accounts flush from government
bailout funds have been buying calls - typically doesn't end well
in the end.
A lot of people are "playing the market" with their stimulus
money because they are stuck at home not working or refusing to go
back to work because they think that they have a new career day
trading. Most will lose it all in a couple of months.
Gambling. The dumb money has now surpassed the smart money.
The same ratio was in February 2020.
QQQ found some willing sellers near previous highs. Simply
put, it's an objective area to hedge. Remember hedging is
like insurance - sometimes you get no benefits for a period of
time.
Steve - Are you just bearish on the short-term or the long-term?
If the long-term, is there anything beyond the elliott waves
that technically shows bigger concern?
Bearish? (I don't use the those terms) Just hedging at
times (with triggers) after big moves as per my plan.
Market is in a uptrend until evidence changes. Not one to
pick exact tops (don't get consumed with picking tops as it is a
PROCESS) and will adjust when the evidence dictates.
Please understand this clearly. I suggest you devise a plan
that fits YOUR style and act accordingly. When the evidence
changes it will be discussed. One thing is to remain prudent
with new entries while continuing to manage your existing swing
positions.
Thank you, Steve. Unless I'm incorrect in my
interpretation of some of the newsletter comments, it seems as
though you are waiting for the market to make a top and roll over
and I was curious why that was. Is it just the waves or
something more? Appreciate all your guys' detailed
analysis.
Why? Because according to my mapping this is a 5th wave move up
where advances terminate(SPX range target 3042-3212). Simple
as that. It's NOT an indicator - it's market structure.
Again, don't waste time getting consumed with picking exact
tops instead devise a plan that fits YOUR style.
SPX 3042-3056 are measured moves
Posted by steve on 27th of May 2020 at 10:58 pm
SPX 3042-3056 are measured moves where minor wave 5 equals 0.62 and 1x of minor wave 1
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=t1008460154c&a=584502541&r=1590634579268&cmd=print
QQQ may have already topped and today's afternoon bounce was a wave 2.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=60&b=7&g=0&id=p71096883698&a=651825515&r=1590636204994&cmd=print
Above are a few charts mapping the recent advance. It can extend but has now met all the requirements for a completed structure. Alternate option is a minor correction of the recent advance only. More tomorrow evening.
Respect the prevailing trend, No need to pick exact tops as best to wait for confirmation (personally have some hedges in place once again following today's afternoon rally) My hedges have been focused on QQQ and XBI will trade them after moves accordingly
Many newbie Robinhood accounts flush from government bailout funds have been buying calls - typically doesn't end well in the end.
A lot of people are
Posted by ssaffer on 28th of May 2020 at 04:50 pm
A lot of people are "playing the market" with their stimulus money because they are stuck at home not working or refusing to go back to work because they think that they have a new career day trading. Most will lose it all in a couple of months. Gambling. The dumb money has now surpassed the smart money. The same ratio was in February 2020.
LOL ...ssaffer....thats so true
Posted by arun on 28th of May 2020 at 06:18 pm
LOL ...ssaffer....thats so true
NQ moved down 131 points
Posted by steve on 28th of May 2020 at 07:58 am
NQ moved down 131 points overnight from last night's high and currently at the lows
NQ now over 200 points
Posted by steve on 28th of May 2020 at 01:03 pm
NQ now over 200 points higher than pre-market lows. Will again be looking to initiate some hedges (likely soon) after covering pre-market
QQQ found some willing sellers
Posted by steve on 28th of May 2020 at 02:03 pm
QQQ found some willing sellers near previous highs. Simply put, it's an objective area to hedge. Remember hedging is like insurance - sometimes you get no benefits for a period of time.
Steve - Are you just
Posted by shecar on 28th of May 2020 at 01:32 pm
Steve - Are you just bearish on the short-term or the long-term? If the long-term, is there anything beyond the elliott waves that technically shows bigger concern?
Bearish? (I don't use
Posted by steve on 28th of May 2020 at 01:33 pm
Bearish? (I don't use the those terms) Just hedging at times (with triggers) after big moves as per my plan. Market is in a uptrend until evidence changes. Not one to pick exact tops (don't get consumed with picking tops as it is a PROCESS) and will adjust when the evidence dictates. Please understand this clearly. I suggest you devise a plan that fits YOUR style and act accordingly. When the evidence changes it will be discussed. One thing is to remain prudent with new entries while continuing to manage your existing swing positions.
Thanks for the headsup steve.
Posted by arun on 28th of May 2020 at 04:09 pm
Thanks for the headsup steve. Made a killing in that move down
bought SPY305 puts for tomorrow
Posted by arun on 28th of May 2020 at 04:20 pm
bought SPY305 puts for tomorrow at 1.05 and sold for 3.36
Thank you, Steve. Unless I'm
Posted by shecar on 28th of May 2020 at 01:48 pm
Thank you, Steve. Unless I'm incorrect in my interpretation of some of the newsletter comments, it seems as though you are waiting for the market to make a top and roll over and I was curious why that was. Is it just the waves or something more? Appreciate all your guys' detailed analysis.
shecar - that NQ/QQQ hedge
Posted by steve on 28th of May 2020 at 02:56 pm
shecar - that NQ/QQQ hedge worked nicely for 60 NQ points thus far (all part of my plan). Devise a PLAN that works for YOU
100+ points now on NQ
Posted by steve on 28th of May 2020 at 03:29 pm
100+ points now on NQ
Why? Because according to my
Posted by steve on 28th of May 2020 at 01:50 pm
Why? Because according to my mapping this is a 5th wave move up where advances terminate(SPX range target 3042-3212). Simple as that. It's NOT an indicator - it's market structure. Again, don't waste time getting consumed with picking exact tops instead devise a plan that fits YOUR style.
like I said last night
Posted by matt on 28th of May 2020 at 01:45 pm
like I said last night - market hasn't broken any support levels, no symmetry, higher highers, higher low.
otherwise some hedging could make some sense up here for people who might have a ton of longs they don't wish to sell but want some protection.