Quick takeaway from this comprehensive review is to keep and
open mind and remain flexible/diversified (includes ratio charts of
Gold/GDX relative to SPY). Best to review a few of the prior
videos for additional context. This is especially relevant to
anyone looking for longer term asset allocations - even for
investors one must be willing to adjust to changing
conditions.
good info question is will we get back to normal prior to this
virus. all the data presented has no basis for this scenario. the
fed did skew the market by throwing more money than ever in
history. what 36 million unemployed and that number isnt accurate
most likely more how do we get back or will that new normal
bankrupt thousands of businesses. we get a vaccine that works in a
new not normal time frame than we have a chance. lots of if and
buts only time will tell..
I'm totally aware of the current backdrop (economically) and
have been positioned as such as discussed in the newsletters.
This summary analysis was by no means an argument to be
bullish but to respect the charts. From a TRADER's
perspective short term one must simply keep and open mind and trade
what's in front of them. There is no questioning the massive
dislocation and impact from the Covid at this time with the
ramifications likely to persist over an extended period of time.
St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast U.S. Q2 GDP at -48.1%, New York
Fed at -33.1% -----stunning and historic collapse in the velocity
of money.
Remember, should a liquidation event take hold in the
marketplace even Metals and Miners will get hit - all one needs to
do is examine what transpired in March.
Look, even if we get a vaccine in 8-10 months that doesn't mean
that it is going to be 100% effective. Look at the flu
vaccine. There is no 'V" recovery. The second quarter
is going to be a lot worse than Q1. What I have
learned is not to get caught up in predictions just trade price
action, whether the market goes up or down. The market and
the economy are not connected right now but at some point they will
meet and it will be an ugly scenario.
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Chris Ciovacco Discussion - Good Review of Historical Perspective and Other Data Points
Posted by steve on 16th of May 2020 at 11:23 am
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/2020/5/15/will-weak-trends-bring-new-stock-lows
Quick takeaway from this comprehensive review is to keep and open mind and remain flexible/diversified (includes ratio charts of Gold/GDX relative to SPY). Best to review a few of the prior videos for additional context. This is especially relevant to anyone looking for longer term asset allocations - even for investors one must be willing to adjust to changing conditions.
good info question is will
Posted by RP on 17th of May 2020 at 06:31 pm
good info question is will we get back to normal prior to this virus. all the data presented has no basis for this scenario. the fed did skew the market by throwing more money than ever in history. what 36 million unemployed and that number isnt accurate most likely more how do we get back or will that new normal bankrupt thousands of businesses. we get a vaccine that works in a new not normal time frame than we have a chance. lots of if and buts only time will tell..
I'm totally aware of the
Posted by steve on 17th of May 2020 at 09:30 pm
I'm totally aware of the current backdrop (economically) and have been positioned as such as discussed in the newsletters. This summary analysis was by no means an argument to be bullish but to respect the charts. From a TRADER's perspective short term one must simply keep and open mind and trade what's in front of them. There is no questioning the massive dislocation and impact from the Covid at this time with the ramifications likely to persist over an extended period of time.
St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast U.S. Q2 GDP at -48.1%, New York Fed at -33.1% -----stunning and historic collapse in the velocity of money.
Remember, should a liquidation event take hold in the marketplace even Metals and Miners will get hit - all one needs to do is examine what transpired in March.
Look, even if we get
Posted by ssaffer on 17th of May 2020 at 08:24 pm
Look, even if we get a vaccine in 8-10 months that doesn't mean that it is going to be 100% effective. Look at the flu vaccine. There is no 'V" recovery. The second quarter is going to be a lot worse than Q1. What I have learned is not to get caught up in predictions just trade price action, whether the market goes up or down. The market and the economy are not connected right now but at some point they will meet and it will be an ugly scenario.