$SPX - Chart Link- Listen guys what goes on
with the market here now is anyone's guess. Anyone who states with
absolute confidence that this or that is going to happen is
guessing.
Guys saying we go right back to the highs? Maybe we do, though I
think the way for that to happen would be because of the Fed and
gov intervention. Technically it would be an ending diagonal
of some sort and even still you would need a pullback soon anyway
for such a pattern
Otherwise I'm still in the mindset we are set for chop -heck
here's an example from early 2018 - the market there retraced
over 72% of the decline and then came all the way back down over
the months. The move move went just over the 61.8% Fib, and
the SPX hasn't even tagged that yet. This Consolidation
pattern was all over the place with various zig zag moves up
lasting months.
again if someone here tells you with 100% certainty what's going
to happen they are just guessing. No one knows. Even I'm
guessing, however my guess (and it's a guess I'm open to any
possibility here I'm not locked into anything) is that the move is
likely do do something more like 2018 or some other choppy pattern
vs a move right back to the highs
$SPX - Chart Link- here's the correction from
2014 - that's an example of a puke and V rally right back to the
highs. The BIG difference then however was that correction
was less than 10% off the highs. The correction we had was
35%, so much more emotional damage was done. I think after
such emotional damage the market needs time to chop around vs a
straight up V move to the highs
$NDX - Chart Link- here's the Nasdaq 100 after
the Mar 2000 correction - notice it retraced 61.8% of the decline
and took 5 months to do so.
Price and time. That's it. TA gives you clues
to possible outcomes. Look for the highest % probable set
ups ( and time frame) for trades. Then it is position size
and defining your stops/risk. Most important lessons for me
were money/risk management.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 18th of Apr 2020 at 06:21 pm
Thanks for the great work Matt. Total agree with your point -
it's meaningless to call a bull or bear with certainty. Our
universe has randomness and all we are doing is studying past cases
to lay out possible paths and probabilities.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
Comments about the market rally and past
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2020 at 02:36 pm
$SPX - Chart Link- Listen guys what goes on with the market here now is anyone's guess. Anyone who states with absolute confidence that this or that is going to happen is guessing.
Guys saying we go right back to the highs? Maybe we do, though I think the way for that to happen would be because of the Fed and gov intervention. Technically it would be an ending diagonal of some sort and even still you would need a pullback soon anyway for such a pattern
Otherwise I'm still in the mindset we are set for chop -heck here's an example from early 2018 - the market there retraced over 72% of the decline and then came all the way back down over the months. The move move went just over the 61.8% Fib, and the SPX hasn't even tagged that yet. This Consolidation pattern was all over the place with various zig zag moves up lasting months.
again if someone here tells you with 100% certainty what's going to happen they are just guessing. No one knows. Even I'm guessing, however my guess (and it's a guess I'm open to any possibility here I'm not locked into anything) is that the move is likely do do something more like 2018 or some other choppy pattern vs a move right back to the highs
$SPX - Chart Link- here's the correction from 2014 - that's an example of a puke and V rally right back to the highs. The BIG difference then however was that correction was less than 10% off the highs. The correction we had was 35%, so much more emotional damage was done. I think after such emotional damage the market needs time to chop around vs a straight up V move to the highs
$NDX - Chart Link- here's the Nasdaq 100 after the Mar 2000 correction - notice it retraced 61.8% of the decline and took 5 months to do so.
Price and time. That's it.
Posted by ssaffer on 19th of Apr 2020 at 12:32 pm
Price and time. That's it. TA gives you clues to possible outcomes. Look for the highest % probable set ups ( and time frame) for trades. Then it is position size and defining your stops/risk. Most important lessons for me were money/risk management.
Thanks for the great work
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 18th of Apr 2020 at 06:21 pm
Thanks for the great work Matt. Total agree with your point - it's meaningless to call a bull or bear with certainty. Our universe has randomness and all we are doing is studying past cases to lay out possible paths and probabilities.