I believe like the stock markets we are "overshooting" this
virus. The panic, fear, hysteria is way overblown.
The evidence shows that. Just like the markets, I stick
with math and data to guide me not some blowhard on CNBC to tell me
when to "Sell" or "Buy, Buy, Buy" with a button. Herd
mentality is usually wrong in the end. And my last thing, If
and when this virus starts to lose steam, and we get a handle on
it. We could see markets correct to a Wave 4, then a tear
your face off to new highs by the end of the year. Now that
seems a bit crazy with how far the markets have sold off, but
corrections are always painful. I am not trading on
this, but just like to think differently sometimes and play out all
scenarios.
THanks for your thoughts. China should be a good gauge to
look at. I think their cases started to level off from the
large growth around 5 weeks into the outbreak (Feb 7th I think?).
I think from that time it continued to drop and deaths mostly
stopped. I don't know why we shouldn't see a similar
scenario. By mid to late April we should see things level off
and by then hopefully sane minds prevail and we get the country
going again ASAP. Sure we can and maybe should quarantine the
sick, isolate the most vulnerable, BUT let the rest of the 99% of
population this isn't a big deal for get back to work.
Consequences of closing everything for 6-9 months, as Cuomo
mentioned, would be far more devastating and likely cause MUCH more
sickness and death. I'd bet anyone the deaths from COVID19
will be MAGNITUDES less than influenza (as seen in China).
Posted by golfmyway5 on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 11:47 pm
Actually I don't believe China is a good gauge for us they had a
military style country wide lock down with a much quicker testing
system . we have nothing close too that here and wasted 6-8 weeks
without aggressive testing. We are probably more on a track
with Italy or Spain. We'll know the numbers better in the next 7-10
days once testing is actually fully ramped up. Because we acted so
slowly with no real forceful quarantine measures this will take
make longer then China to get our outbreak under control I hope I'm
wrong .
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 23rd of Mar 2020 at 12:04 am
Actually every politician is talking about 'slowing' the spread.
Hopefully the weather will help NY and Washington 2-3 months
from now, or any meaningful breakthrough happens in medicience
development.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria What gives? Hysteria.
All commerce is shutting down bit by bit, as edicts ...
Posted by stevieb294 on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 11:50 am
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria
What gives? Hysteria.
I believe like the stock
Posted by ssaffer on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 12:11 pm
I believe like the stock markets we are "overshooting" this virus. The panic, fear, hysteria is way overblown. The evidence shows that. Just like the markets, I stick with math and data to guide me not some blowhard on CNBC to tell me when to "Sell" or "Buy, Buy, Buy" with a button. Herd mentality is usually wrong in the end. And my last thing, If and when this virus starts to lose steam, and we get a handle on it. We could see markets correct to a Wave 4, then a tear your face off to new highs by the end of the year. Now that seems a bit crazy with how far the markets have sold off, but corrections are always painful. I am not trading on this, but just like to think differently sometimes and play out all scenarios.
THanks for your thoughts. China
Posted by blayden on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 10:12 pm
THanks for your thoughts. China should be a good gauge to look at. I think their cases started to level off from the large growth around 5 weeks into the outbreak (Feb 7th I think?). I think from that time it continued to drop and deaths mostly stopped. I don't know why we shouldn't see a similar scenario. By mid to late April we should see things level off and by then hopefully sane minds prevail and we get the country going again ASAP. Sure we can and maybe should quarantine the sick, isolate the most vulnerable, BUT let the rest of the 99% of population this isn't a big deal for get back to work. Consequences of closing everything for 6-9 months, as Cuomo mentioned, would be far more devastating and likely cause MUCH more sickness and death. I'd bet anyone the deaths from COVID19 will be MAGNITUDES less than influenza (as seen in China).
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-nobel-laureate-predicts-quicker-210318391.html
Actually I don't believe China
Posted by golfmyway5 on 22nd of Mar 2020 at 11:47 pm
Actually I don't believe China is a good gauge for us they had a military style country wide lock down with a much quicker testing system . we have nothing close too that here and wasted 6-8 weeks without aggressive testing. We are probably more on a track with Italy or Spain. We'll know the numbers better in the next 7-10 days once testing is actually fully ramped up. Because we acted so slowly with no real forceful quarantine measures this will take make longer then China to get our outbreak under control I hope I'm wrong .
Actually every politician is talking
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 23rd of Mar 2020 at 12:04 am
Actually every politician is talking about 'slowing' the spread. Hopefully the weather will help NY and Washington 2-3 months from now, or any meaningful breakthrough happens in medicience development.