Stevebolin - remember I already told you, I going to report the
trades so we can track them and once they close out we'll see where
everything ends, however this is an unprecedented time. The
reversion to mean trades will close out on a bounce, but when and
were the bounce will occur is uncertain, it could occur today,
which I doubt being a Friday, or maybe next Monday or Tuesday.
SPX could be another 100 - 400 points lower before that
occurs, no one knows. That's why I said while I'll go ahead
and continue to report the trades - you guys have to decide what to
do here.
some options are to close some trades out for a loss, keep some
open, reduce risk. Or close out all. One can always look to
re-enter another day when things look washed out finally. If
the amount of capital you deployed to the trades is too much
relative to your account size then you might want to at least
consider reducing. If you these trades a only a small % of your
account then you have more ability to let them ride, or try to
hedge them
Unless you guys want me to just send a general sell out for
everything you can let me know? I think it's best that you
guys look at what you have and make your own decisions to either
reduce your size or not, or take some hedges, and I'll just
continue to report what these are doing.
As you know these are reversion to mean systems , except for the
breakout sub system. The issue with reversion to mean systems is
that 99% of the time they work great. As you know the
reversion to mean systems are basically statistical trade types -
i.e. you find that markets tend to bounce 90 - 95% of the time
after a certain combination of indicators gets oversold etc, or
after the market has a correction of X % within a certain time, or
if price is down too many days in a row, or if price is up say too
many days in a row price for example if the SPX was up 10 days in a
row, it's due for at least a 1 day pullback. That's generally what
the reversion to mean systems are.
The concern I have at the moment is that we are seeing
unprecedented statistics with the market. For example the SPX
has fallen the fasted percentage wise over a 10 day period
than it ever has! That's clearly out of statistical bounds
here. The market's are not trading in normal statistical
range. So I've never been able to test moves like this
before.
In all my testing the reversion to mean system trades always did
better by not having a hard tradition stop where you would stop out
at lows, they always did better by getting out of bad trades on an
inevitable bounce. That said we could bounce any time or the market
could go anther 5, 10, 15% lower first. That's why I think
it's important to let you guys know that and decide how to manage
these trades - hold them like the system and exit when they do, or
reduce and hold some but reduce position or hedge, or close out.
One thing I'll do here is add the max draw down percentages for
each of these - which by the way we have not hit yet. some of
these like the Trend/Pullback have 10 - 13% max draw down on the
first entry. Even the CCI trade is around 11% and that one only
recently entered so it has a long way.
I also think in the future we'll focus more on trying to develop
that 120 min system beecaus with that you don't have multiple
entries and you have a stop. The worst that can happen is you stop
out a few times. Those type of systems have a lot of appeal
to me, and for you probably, because this is never fun. Also even
you verterans here who know all this and have been through it, it's
tough enough for you. However for new members who came here
recently - no matter how I try to explain this, times like this do
not look good
Posted by steverobin on 28th of Feb 2020 at 02:20 pm
Again, I thank you for this reply and what you will publish this
weekend. I am personally not concerned about the risk
management. I did not over trade and the fact that these calls have
over 60 days to expiration gives ample time to select strategies on
how to manage. My concern is when , if at all, the system
decides to cease entries. I know I don’t have to take every
trade. Also does the system ever take a short trade in a bull
market?
Posted by mamacash on 28th of Feb 2020 at 12:35 pm
I really like the SPY system except in times like this. If you
turn more of your attention to the 120-min system, that would
awesome by me. Thanks for everything you do. We never know when
we're going to get a black swan event but eventually, we always get
one.
More entries!
Posted by steverobin on 28th of Feb 2020 at 09:14 am
More entries!
Stevebolin - remember I already
Posted by matt on 28th of Feb 2020 at 09:39 am
Stevebolin - remember I already told you, I going to report the trades so we can track them and once they close out we'll see where everything ends, however this is an unprecedented time. The reversion to mean trades will close out on a bounce, but when and were the bounce will occur is uncertain, it could occur today, which I doubt being a Friday, or maybe next Monday or Tuesday. SPX could be another 100 - 400 points lower before that occurs, no one knows. That's why I said while I'll go ahead and continue to report the trades - you guys have to decide what to do here.
some options are to close some trades out for a loss, keep some open, reduce risk. Or close out all. One can always look to re-enter another day when things look washed out finally. If the amount of capital you deployed to the trades is too much relative to your account size then you might want to at least consider reducing. If you these trades a only a small % of your account then you have more ability to let them ride, or try to hedge them
Unless you guys want me to just send a general sell out for everything you can let me know? I think it's best that you guys look at what you have and make your own decisions to either reduce your size or not, or take some hedges, and I'll just continue to report what these are doing.
As you know these are reversion to mean systems , except for the breakout sub system. The issue with reversion to mean systems is that 99% of the time they work great. As you know the reversion to mean systems are basically statistical trade types - i.e. you find that markets tend to bounce 90 - 95% of the time after a certain combination of indicators gets oversold etc, or after the market has a correction of X % within a certain time, or if price is down too many days in a row, or if price is up say too many days in a row price for example if the SPX was up 10 days in a row, it's due for at least a 1 day pullback. That's generally what the reversion to mean systems are.
The concern I have at the moment is that we are seeing unprecedented statistics with the market. For example the SPX has fallen the fasted percentage wise over a 10 day period than it ever has! That's clearly out of statistical bounds here. The market's are not trading in normal statistical range. So I've never been able to test moves like this before.
In all my testing the reversion to mean system trades always did better by not having a hard tradition stop where you would stop out at lows, they always did better by getting out of bad trades on an inevitable bounce. That said we could bounce any time or the market could go anther 5, 10, 15% lower first. That's why I think it's important to let you guys know that and decide how to manage these trades - hold them like the system and exit when they do, or reduce and hold some but reduce position or hedge, or close out.
One thing I'll do here is add the max draw down percentages for each of these - which by the way we have not hit yet. some of these like the Trend/Pullback have 10 - 13% max draw down on the first entry. Even the CCI trade is around 11% and that one only recently entered so it has a long way.
I also think in the future we'll focus more on trying to develop that 120 min system beecaus with that you don't have multiple entries and you have a stop. The worst that can happen is you stop out a few times. Those type of systems have a lot of appeal to me, and for you probably, because this is never fun. Also even you verterans here who know all this and have been through it, it's tough enough for you. However for new members who came here recently - no matter how I try to explain this, times like this do not look good
Again, I thank you for
Posted by steverobin on 28th of Feb 2020 at 02:20 pm
Again, I thank you for this reply and what you will publish this weekend. I am personally not concerned about the risk management. I did not over trade and the fact that these calls have over 60 days to expiration gives ample time to select strategies on how to manage. My concern is when , if at all, the system decides to cease entries. I know I don’t have to take every trade. Also does the system ever take a short trade in a bull market?
I really like the SPY
Posted by mamacash on 28th of Feb 2020 at 12:35 pm
I really like the SPY system except in times like this. If you turn more of your attention to the 120-min system, that would awesome by me. Thanks for everything you do. We never know when we're going to get a black swan event but eventually, we always get one.
Thank you for the detailed
Posted by steverobin on 28th of Feb 2020 at 10:06 am
Thank you for the detailed reply!